Football tips: Premier League weekend best bets, including Chelsea v Man Utd
Jake Pearson takes an early look at the weekend's Premier League action, determining which sides are worth backing sooner rather than later, in order to beat the market.
- Follow @JakePearson_SL on Twitter
- Beat the Market tipping record: 22.5 points staked | +29.65 points returned
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa to beat Crystal Palace at 49/20 (Unibet)
1pt Manchester United or Draw v Chelsea at 8/5 (Mansion Bet)
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
There is no denying the impressive job that Patrick Vieira is doing at Crystal Palace. Selhurst Park is now an entertaining place to watch football, and the Eagles haven’t tasted defeat for seven Premier League matches.
There are a couple of caveats that come with that, however, the first being that during this run Palace have only won twice, and in fact have only won three games all season. The other is that they are still a point worse off than they were at this stage last year.
Their schedule has been admittedly tough, facing five of last season’s top six already this term – the average forecast finishing position of their opponents sitting at 8.67 according to Infogol – but a similar case can be made for Aston Villa, the average points their opponents have picked up this season just 0.04 fewer than Palace’s opponents.
The difference is how the two sides have coped with the difficult schedule, Villa losing six successive matches prior to Steven Gerrard’s first game as manager against Brighton on Saturday.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Crystal Palace 6/5 | Draw 23/10 | Aton Villa 23/10
They did get the win against Graham Potter’s men, and though it wasn’t the most convincing 2-0 victory, it gives encouragement that improvement could be on the horizon – Villa limiting Brighton to 0.53 Expected Goals, their best defensive performance of the season.
Ultimately though, betting on this match comes down to the price and at 49/20, ASTON VILLA TO WIN looks a good proposition.
Villa’s price has shortened from the opening to closing price in all but one of their away matches this season, the numbers suggesting that, on average, the bookmakers underestimate Gerrard’s side by 1.6% each time they play on the road.
Even at this early stage the betting on this fixture has been interesting, Villa initially drifting from 21/10 out to 5/2 prior to kick off on Saturday, then shortening back into 9/4 generally following their victory over the Seagulls.
It is important not to overreact to Gerrard’s appointment, but it is also equally important not to overreact to Palace’s early season exploits – the fact that against only Newcastle this season they have been a shorter price than the 6/5 to win this match is telling in terms of how much the layers have reacted to recent results.
In short, Palace are not better than Villa by 16.5%, and once the markets firm up, that will probably be reflected in the betting come Saturday afternoon.
Chelsea v Manchester United
The first thing to get out of the way is that, yes, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has finally been relieved of his position as Manchester United manager.
The second thing that needs addressing is that, yes, Chelsea are a better team than the Red Devils.
That Saturday afternoon ended in Man United losing 4-1 to Watford, after Chelsea had thumped Leicester by three goals to nil, demonstrates exactly where these two sides are at the minute.
‘New manager bounce’ would be on the lips of many pundits, were it not for the fact that Manchester United look as though they will not be appointing anyone until the end of the season, leaving Michael Carrick in interim charge until a decision is made.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Chelsea 11/20 | Draw 3/1 | Man Utd 5/1
In truth, the former midfielder couldn’t have asked for a tougher start, not that he would have, with the Blues flying high at the top of the Premier League.
This column has profited on more than one occasion from taking on Manchester United this season, purely down to the fact that they were being overvalued early on in the campaign, but now the opposite looks to be the case, and a string of poor results have left bookmakers putting the boot in.
Though luck played a big part in the run, it is worth remembering that United were undefeated in 28 away matches prior to their 4-2 defeat at Leicester last month, and though their loss to Watford came at Vicarage Road, there is plenty of reason to believe that playing away from the tense atmosphere at Old Trafford is a bonus for Carrick’s men.
On the road as well, Manchester United have shortened in all but one of their matches this season, which is something of an oddity for a traditional ‘big six’ team.
Also, no team has drifted by a larger percentage than Chelsea this season, their opening price to closing price probability difference standing at a whopping -34%, meaning the bookmakers are overvaluing the Blues by a significant amount when initially pricing up matches.
This is the biggest price United have been all season, particularly away from home, returning an average price of 5/6 on the road this term, including against West Ham, Leicester and Tottenham.
Admittedly, those sides are not at Chelsea’s level, but that is a huge price shift, and in fact, the prices imply that Chelsea only have a 6% lower chance of beating Manchester United than they did of beating Southampton at Stamford Bridge last month.
United have fallen a long way in recent weeks, but not that far, so siding with MANCHESTER UNITED OR DRAW is the way to go in this fixture, with the current price of 8/5 highly likely to shorten.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
