Jake Pearson's profitable Beat the Market column returns to preview the upcoming Premier League action, attempting to identify early value.
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Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Burnley v Leicester to DRAW at 5/2 (Sky Bet, Betway)
Burnley v Leicester
The first thing to say about this match, before going into the semantics of the game itself, the potential patterns of play and how to go about betting on it, is that it could well be postponed.
Leicester’s away fixture against Everton, scheduled to take place on Tuesday, has been called off due to the Foxes being unable to field a team, with a combination of Covid cases, player injuries and AFCON the reason for their reduced squad.
It throws their fixture against Burnley into doubt, but with the match currently scheduled to go ahead, there is no reason to overlook it from a betting perspective.
Indeed, should the match go ahead, the knowledge we have of Leicester’s depleted resources can help inform our decision, and taking on the Foxes looks the way to play this contest.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Burnley 19/10 | Draw 5/2 | Leicester 13/10
It could be argued that Brendan Rodgers’ men actually enter this match in a good vein of form, beating Liverpool 1-0 before a 4-1 thrashing of Watford in the FA Cup.
However, Leicester were fortunate to come away with all three points against Jurgen Klopp’s side, taking just six shots to Liverpool’s 21, whilst also sacrificing a wealth of opportunities (xG: LEI 0.75 – 2.50 LIV), and just how much a victory over a Watford side who had lost their six previous matches is worth remains up for debate.
There is no escaping the fact that this season has been an extremely poor one as far as the Foxes are concerned. Not only do they currently occupy tenth place in the Premier League, but based on the quality of chances created and conceded, they are fortunate not to be even lower – sitting 16th in Infogol’s expected table.
If there is doubt about Leicester’s current form then, there is none about Burnley’s. The Clarets are without a win in their eight, losing their last three, including a 2-1 defeat to Huddersfield in the FA Cup.
Undoubtedly, cup competitions are far from a priority for Sean Dyche, but losses are never a positive, particularly if they are happening on a consistent basis.
The hope for Burnley lies in their home form. The Clarets have only been beaten twice at Turf Moor this season, and in fact they haven’t lost in their last four home matches. Even their two defeats came by just a one-goal margin.
Only Brighton and Southampton have more draws to their name than Burnley in the Premier League this season, with a whopping 47% of Clarets matches ending all square.
This is a tough fixture for Burnley, but there arguably isn’t a better time to face Leicester.
Given the well-documented issues the Foxes are facing in terms of available personnel, backing the DRAW at an early price of 5/2 makes definite appeal.
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