Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
1pt Aaron Ramsey to be carded in Cardiff vs Swansea at 5/1 (bet365)
Cardiff vs Swansea
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Football
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/4
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
The south Wales derby usually tends to be a feisty affair and given both sides have made poor starts to the Championship campaign, stakes are maybe even higher than normal on Saturday evening.
Last season’s two meetings yielded 13 yellow cards and one red, the season before saw nine cautions across the two games and the campaign prior to that eight bookings and one sending-off.
Another reason to expect cards is that the appointed match official, Sam Barrott, has shown 18 yellows and two reds in four games already this term but all the above means team card markets are prohibitively priced.
There simply has to be value in picking out individuals therefore and, going with the theory that such a derby should mean more to local lads I’m plumping for AARON RAMSEY TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
The 32-year-old is back with his boyhood and hometown club, and is among Cardiff’s leaders in the tackles (2.4 per game) and fouls (1.4 per game) statistics, as well as already collecting one booking.
Let’s be honest, he’s a step slower than he was – which is why he’s playing in the second tier now – and if this derby proves frenetic, he’s a nice price at 5/1 to make a misstep that results in a card.
Ramsey did come off with a slight knock after scoring for Wales in midweek so it's one to keep an eye on the teamsheets for but Bluebirds boss Erol Bulut said the midfielder had been training and would be 'on the field' on Saturday which will do for me.
Best bets for earlier kick-offs
2pts Aston Villa to beat Crystal Palace at 10/11 (General)
1.5pts Norwich to beat Stoke at 10/11 (General)
1pt BTTS ‘No’ in Blackburn vs Middlesbrough at 29/20 (BetVictor, PariMatch)
1pt BTTS ‘No’ in Preston vs Plymouth at 23/20 (BetVictor, PariMatch)
1pt Colchester to beat Mansfield at 11/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Crewe (draw no bet) to beat AFC Wimbledon at 12/5 (SpreadEx)
1pt Anthony Gordon to be carded in Newcastle vs Brentford at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 3/1
Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)
ASTON VILLA are serious flat-track bullies.
Between losing 5-1 and 3-0 at Newcastle and Liverpool they scored 16 goals and conceded just once in beating Everton, Hibs (twice) and Burnley, and stretched their winning run at Villa Park to nine matches - they should make it 10 on Saturday.
Of Unai Emery's 30 league games in charge, six of their eight defeats have come against teams who finished in the Premier League's top five last season.
It might seem harsh on Roy Hodgson given Patrick Vieira was in charge for most of this time, but Crystal Palace haven't beaten a team who finished in the top seven last term for more than a year.
You have to go back to August 20, 2022 when Vieira's Palace won at home to Steven Gerrard's Villa.
Blackburn vs Middlesbrough
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/8
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
Misfiring Middlesbrough have been one of the shocks of the season, last term’s losing play-off semi-finalists sitting rock bottom of the Championship after five games with just three goals to their name.
The departure of last season’s second-tier 28-goal top scorer Chuba Akpom to Ajax seems to have hit them hard, while they have also lost the goals of 2022-23 loanee Cameron Archer.
For me, though, the most eye-catching Boro figure is their xGA of 0.92 per game – the division’s second lowest thus far. They have actually conceded 2.2 goals per game, 1.3 more per match than they deserved.
That massive differential between the two figures suggests they are being beaten by ‘worldies’ and that bad luck should not hold over a longer spell. The yellow stars below indicate shots that found the net despite a low xG probability.
That solidly performing back-line combined with struggles in attack mean BTTS ‘NO' is surely well overpriced at 29/20 for the trip to Blackburn. The odds almost seem to have been struck with last season's free-scoring, free-flowing Boro in mind.
Last season, games at Ewood Park averaged just two goals per game – the second lowest in the division – and these sides have scored just nine goals between them in 10 league matches combined this campaign.
Norwich vs Stoke
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 3/1
Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)
NORWICH have started strongly on the pitch and on the spreadsheets, sitting fifth in the actual table and with the best expected goal difference (xGD) in the Sky Bet Championship.
They are averaging more than 2.0 xG per game and, a madcap 4-4 draw at Southampton aside, are allowing just 0.6 xGA per game.
Stoke sit 16th, which fairly reflects their mediocre start.
Despite putting 10 goals past Rotherham in league and cup, they have scored just three across their other five matches, making the Canaries TO WIN an appealing price at 10/11.
Preston vs Plymouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/8
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
It’s a surprise to see BTTS ‘Yes' the fairly considerable favourite over the odds-against BTTS ‘NO' in this game when you dig into the numbers.
Shock Sky Bet Championship pacesetters Preston have conceded just three goals in five games and their xGA (expected goals against) is a jaw-droppingly low 0.60 per game. Defensively, they have been excellent thus far.
Additionally, last season, games at Deepdale averaged 2.09 goals per match, the third lowest in the division, and Ryan Lowe’s Lilywhites are only averaging 1.00 xGF (expected goals for) this term.
Lowe’s former side Plymouth, Saturday’s visitors, are admittedly more expansive and we are gambling on this being a Preston kind of game, rather than a Pilgrims one.
Having said that, the Devon side did grind out a goalless draw at Watford in one of their two away games since promotion and another tight affair would not surprise given their hosts’ nature.
Colchester vs Mansfield
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/4 | Draw 5/2 | Away 10/11
Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)
Sky Bet League Two high-fliers Mansfield have undoubtedly started superbly well, but I have had a nagging doubt about the negativity surrounding COLCHESTER all season.
That negative reaction to the U’s and positivity surrounding the Stags presents an opportunity to get Ben Garner’s men on side at a cracking price of 11/4 TO WIN.
Having taken over towards the end of last season, Garner appears to have started to turn things around with a 3-0 win at top-of-the-table Gillingham and 2-0 victory at home to Tranmere coming either side of 1-0 loss at Walsall.
The result prior saw them concede twice in the final two minutes against promotion favourites MK Dons to turn a 2-1 lead in to a 3-2 defeat. They are improving. Enough to be worth backing.
AFC Wimbledon vs Crewe
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 3/4 | Draw 11/4 | Away 16/5
Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)
Crewe seem to be going under the radar with the bookies. They sit sixth in League Two and have lost just once so far.
They went off at 11/5 to win at Forest Green last weekend and steamrolled Rovers 4-1, building on an impressive 3-1 home win over then-second-placed MK Dons.
For Saturday’s trip to the original Dons, a team who are winless in five matches in all competitions after a strong start, they remain rank outsiders at 17/5 to win.
However, given that Crewe have drawn five of their 10 matches this season it is DRAW NO BET that appeals at a best price of 12/5, returning our stake if the contest ends level.
Newcastle vs Brentford
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/15 | Draw 10/3 | Away 19/4
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
Newcastle should win but there is no juice in their price.
Into alternative markets it is then, and ANTHONY GORDON’s price TO BE CARDED is worth a revisit at 3/1
The winger has made a cynical start to the campaign picking up three bookings in four top flight appearances.
This is nothing new though. Gordon has racked up 15 cards in 96 domestic appearances (cards per 90 of 0.26), picking up 12 bookings in his last 37 league starts.
Odds correct 1530 BST (15/09/23)
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