Football betting tips: Thursday best bets
2pts Mohammed Kudus 3+ total shots in West Ham vs Freiburg at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Rangers to qualify vs Benfica at 21/20 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Rangers to win in 90 minutes at 15/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Romelu Lukaku to score anytime in Brighton vs Roma at 23/10 (BetVictor, Coral)
Brighton vs Roma (agg: 0-4)
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 4
- Home 3/4 | Draw 16/5 | Away 3/1
Do Brighton have any chance of progressing here? They are 4-0 down to a good Roma team meaning Roberto De Zerbi's side have not one, but two mountains to climb.
They have the gung-ho, all-out-attack style and DNA to give this a good go, but the history books are against them. Barcelona managed it against PSG - the famous 'La Remontada' - winning the home leg 6-1 in dramatic fashion. More recently, Sheffield Wednesday managed it in Sky Bet League One last season against Peterborough, winning the home leg 5-1 and going through on penalties.
It is possible, but it is very rare a team overturns such a deficit. The Seagulls are a stingy 18/1 to pull it off, but personally I'd want 50/1 given the circumstances - Brighton's injury issues and Roma's impressive form.
The Seagulls have to throw the kitchen sink from the off, and that should present opportunities and space on the counter attack for the Italians, and that should suit one player in particular - ROMELU LUKAKU.
Lukaku is known much more for his ability to run and hold players off with space in front of him than he is for his close control and intricate play. This game state should set allow the Belgian the open grass to terrorise Brighton's defenders one-on-on with his strength, and he looks well worth backing TO SCORE ANYTIME here.
He has scored four times in his last 10 outings, including a goal in the first leg, while seeing eight 'big chances' in that time. Brighton's defenders couldn't live with him in the first leg, which saw Roma play very quickly and direct, with both opening goals coming from one straight ball over the top.
Expect more of the same in this second leg but with more space for the Romans as the hosts attempt to make a fist of this tie.
West Ham vs Freiburg (agg: 0-1)
- Kick-off time: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 7/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 15/4
West Ham trail as they welcome Freiburg to the London Stadium for the second time this season, these two sides having faced eachother in the Europa League group stage as well.
That previous hosting of the Germans saw the Hammers run out 2-0 winners as the pair battled for top spot in the group, and the same result would be more than welcomed by David Moyes and the West Ham faithful.
It won't be as easy as the 7/10 for a home win suggests, with Freiburg on a good run of form and the Hammers out of sorts defensively, but we know that the hosts will be in all-out-attack mode here, which is why MOHAMMED KUDUS 3+ TOTAL SHOTS piques the interest.
The Ghanaian has been trigger happy all season, but especially since he returned from AFCON. In his last seven games, Kudus has averaged 3.4 shots per game, covering the 3+ line in five of those matches.
Freiburg will likely sit deep given they have a lead to protect, and Kudus doesn't need too many invitations to shoot, so at 5/6 his price appeals to continue his shoot-on-sight form. The same bet is 1/2 in places.
Rangers vs Benfica (agg: 2-2)
- Kick-off time: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 4
- Home 9/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/8
Benfica went off far too short at 1/2 in the first leg and required a penalty and own goal to escape Estadio da Luiz with a 2-2 draw.
The Portuguese side remain favourites, and having taken Rangers on both the handicap and to win on the night a week ago, I'm happy to stick along similar lines.
Since becoming Rangers manager Philippe Clement has won 25 of his 31 matches, losing just twice.
Perhaps more impressive than overhauling Celtic in the Scottish Premiership was recovering his team from a poor start to top their Europa League group.
Against a Benfica team who have won only once in their past four games, and twice in their last six, RANGERS WIN and RANGERS TO QUALIFY are advised.
RAFA SILVA has 12 goals and 11 assists in Portugal's top flight this season and will be crucial to their hopes of progression.
Rangers captain JAMES TAVERNIER has scored 21 times already this term as he continues to be quite possibly the most prolific right-back on the planet.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (12/03/24)
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