Football betting tips: Wednesday best bets
2pts Justin Kluivert to commit 2+ fouls in Bournemouth vs Luton at 4/5 (Betfair, Paddys)
2pts Sergiño Dest 1+ total shot in Dortmund vs PSV at 11/10 (bet365, Hills)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Dortmund vs PSV at 6/4 (Sky Bet, Hills)
1pt Justin Kluivert to be carded in Bournemouth vs Luton at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddys, bet365)
1pt Carl Piergianni to score anytime in Peterborough vs Stevenage at 13/1 (Unibet)
Bournemouth vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- Home 4/9 | Draw 15/4 | Away 5/1
This is a big game for Luton, who could climb out of the bottom three with a win, while for Bournemouth a win all-but secures Premier League safety with 10 games remaining.
Luton's away form and process is shocking, losing seven of 13 and conceding 30 times, allowing 3.07 xGA per game on their travels. A home win looks likely, but my approach in this game centres around JUSTIN KLUIVERT.
The Dutchman has been a pressing machine for Andoni Iraola this season, but he has also been a foul machine. Kluivert has averaged the fourth most fouls per 90 minutes of any player in the entire Premier League, 2.55.
Backing him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS therefore appeals at 4/5, with the same bet 2/5 in places.
Across his last six games this bet has won three times, with his fouls per 90 rising to 2.99 across that time.
With Sam Allison in the middle for this one, a predominantly EFL referee who will be overseeing just his second Premier League game, we could see a few cards dished out, and so the 5/1 about KLUIVERT TO BE CARDED is worth a nibble too.
Allison's first top flight game was Luton's 3-2 win at Sheffield United where he brandished five yellows. All told he's averaged 3.90 cards per game this season so looks a decent appointment for card backers, and given Kluivert's high foul rate, he's ripe to have his name taken here.
In fact, he's been booked in three of his last six appearances, so we should get a decent run for our money here.
Dortmund vs PSV (agg: 1-1)
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 21/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 9/4
This tie is finely poised heading to Germany after a cagey first leg, and I fully expect this second leg to be the same.
Dortmund came through the 'group of death' in impressive fashion, but it was their defensive approach that caught the eye. BVB were more than happy to sit back and make sure they were solid defensively, and that approach was also used in the first leg in Eindhoven.
That set-up has led to UNDER 2.5 GOALS landing in six of Dortmund's seven Champions League games this season, and with more of the same expected, the 6/4 available for yet another low-scoring match appeals.
One player-related bet catches the eye in this game, and it's the 11/10 about SERGINO DEST 1+ TOTAL SHOT.
Dest has managed at least one shot in all of his last six matches for PSV, including in the first leg. In total over that time the Dutchman has pulled the trigger 13 times, so an average of 2.2 per game
Playing at left-back, the right-footed Barcelona loanee loves to cut inside to open up shooting opportunities, but also can overlap and underlap using his pace, meaning his one of PSV's key attacking players. It's worth mentioning he scored the winner for PSV at the weekend, so his confidence will be high.
Dortmund rank only ninth best in the Bundesliga for shots conceded per game (13.9), while in the Champions League, BVB have conceded 14.9 shots per game, meaning Dest has a great chance of getting at least one off.
I wouldn't put anyone off the chaser, backing Dest 2+ total shots at 11/2 and Dest 3+ shots at 18/1 - both with bet365. The former would have won in four of Dest's last six games and the latter would have landed twice in that time.
Peterborough vs Stevenage
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 5/6 | Draw 13/5 | Away 19/10
No side can better Stevenage for shots from set pieces in Sky Bet League One. Steve Evans' men have had 174 attempts from dead ball situations, racked up an xG of 14.37 (2nd) and scored 16 times (2nd).
CARL PIERGIANNI is the target and the centre back has scored four times this season making him Boro's joint-third top scorer.
Piergianni also ranks third for shots per game with 1.5 but the defender posts some staggering totals.
He has had at least one attempt in 25 of his 36 appearances this term racking up 15 in his last four appearances. He has had four or more in one game on three occasions, seven twice and eight once.
At 13/1, his price TO SCORE ANYTIME on Wednesday looks large.
Peterborough are no soft touch but set piece defending has proved a bit of an Achilles heel for the promotion hopefuls, with 30% of the goals they have conceded this term coming from them.
Northampton’s Jon Guthrie recently became the fourth centre back to net against Posh this term joining Omar Beckles (Leyton Orient), Regan Poole (Portsmouth) and Erin Cashin (Derby).
After having two shots in the reverse, Piergianni will fancy his chances of netting at London Road.
BuildABet @ 26/1
- Stevenage to win
- Carl Piergianni to score anytime
CLICK HERE to back with Sky bet
Stevenage may have only picked up five points in seven games against sides above them in the table but the Boro are unbeaten in four and what is more, have not conceded in any of those games.
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (12/03/24)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
