Football tips, predictions and best bets: Carabao Cup round three
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup best bets
2pts Jhon Duran to score anytime in Aston Villa vs Everton at 5/2 (bet365)
2pts Brighton to beat Chelsea at 2/1 (bet365, 10bet)
2pts Darwin Nunez to score anytime in Liverpool vs Leicester at 13/10 (General)
0.5pts Nunez to score 2+ goals in Liverpool vs Leicester at 7/1 (General)
Aston Villa vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- Home 4/6 | Draw 14/5 | Away 18/5
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
It took JHON DURAN six minutes to score against Legia Warsaw in Aston Villa’s 3-2 Europa Conference League defeat. The Colombian is up to four goals this campaign, a return made even more impressive as Duran has only played 201 minutes in all competitions.
Granted, it is a small sample size but that takes him to a goal in each of his two starts and he is finding the net once every 50 minutes on average.
Everton laboured past Sky Bet League Two side Doncaster in the last round. With a huge fixture against Luton in the Premier League on Saturday, Sean Dyche should rotate here which only gives Duran’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME more appeal.
Chelsea vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 9/5
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
Chelsea’s defeat on Sunday made it three games without a win for the Blues, during which time they have not found the net.
It has not been for a lack of creativity though - over that four and a half hours of football, Mauricio Pochettino’s side have racked up an xG of 5.48. But I do not think their fortunes will change on Wednesday as BRIGHTON have their number.
The visitors thrive against teams that go toe-to-toe against them. The Seagulls' two defeats this campaign have come against West Ham and AEK Athens, who both deployed low blocks.
Roberto De Zerbi’s side have picked off every other side, scoring three or more goals in each game. Backing the visitors TO WIN is the play here.
Liverpool vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- Home 2/5 | Draw 15/4 | Away 11/2
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
DARWIN NUNEZ is probably Jurgen Klopp’s third choice striker at Liverpool, behind Cody Gakpo and Diogo Jota.
The Uruguayan has not settled into life at Merseyside as quickly as the club or the player would have hoped, and difficulty with the language and culture are probably factors.
Nunez has started the last two games and has scored in each, his goal on Thursday coming via the spot, doubling his tally for the campaign.
He scored a brace at St James’ Park, capitalising on Newcastle’s high line despite the Reds playing with a man light.
Huge if, but if Nunez gets the nod on Wednesday, he could have a field day against Leicester's high line.
Enzo Maresca has made no secret that he wants his defenders squeezing up, considering Jannik Vestergaard and Wout Faes started at the weekend and Callum Doyle started the last round of this competition.
Liverpool are odds on to score twice and, if he starts, Nunez looks a great bet TO SCORE ANYTIME and TO SCORE TWO OR MORE GOALS.
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup best bets Tuesday
1pt Cauley Woodrow to score anytime in Exeter vs Luton at 12/5 (bet365)
0.5pts Middlesbrough to win from behind at Bradford at 17/2 (BetVictor, PariMatch)
Bradford City vs Middlesbrough
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- Home 18/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 4/6
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
Last season’s Sky Bet Championship play-off semi-finalists Middlesbrough have made a surprisingly poor start to the season but will hope Saturday’s win over Southampton kickstarts an upturn.
The win lifted them off the foot of the table ahead of their visit to a Bradford side who also reached their division’s play-off semis last season and haven’t made an ideal start to this term either, albeit they sit mid-table in Sky Bet League Two.
Boro's away games tend to equal goals. Their matches on the road in the league are averaging 3.50 goals per game this season while they’ve enjoyed 3-2 and 3-1 away wins in this competition so far.
On both of those occasions, Michael Carrick’s side have had to erase a deficit to triumph – as they did at the weekend against Saints – and I’ll have a small stake on a repeat here with MIDDLESBROUGH TO WIN FROM BEHIND at 17/2.
Carrick has played half-strength teams in previous rounds but brought on the cavalry when needed and I see him doing the same here – 22nd in the league, he won’t want an upset at a fourth-tier side to pile more pressure on.
Exeter City vs Luton Town
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- Home 18/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 4/6
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
A couple of weeks ago, I’d have been leaning towards an upset here but Sky Bet League One side Exeter have lost three of their past four, including a confidence-sapper 9-0 at home to Reading in the EFL Trophy.
However, there’s zero value in backing visitors Luton either at odds-on given their bruising start to life in the Premier League and the likelihood they could make wholesale changes here ahead of a key trip to Everton at the weekend.
I’d expect one of those changes to involve CAULEY WOODROW coming back into the team - he played and scored in the previous round - and this is the sort of game the 6ft striker should thrive in.
Woodrow scored 16 goals in 31 games in his sole season in League One with Barnsley and hit double figures in the Championship in each of the subsequent two campaigns. At those levels, he's a constant threat.
He’s been a bit-part player since joining Luton but netted in round two against Gillingham and, if he’s on the teamsheet, I’d expect him to do the same and SCORE ANYTIME against an Exeter defence that has shipped 12 goals in a week.
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