Finding a suitable bet on matches involving Manchester City is a problem a lot of punters have to solve.
For the vast majority, Pep Guardiola’s side are merely used as a boost to the accumulator, a so often short-priced favourite that you can mark down for a win.
Is there more to be looked at in the circumstances, though?
The Sporting Life team were asked what their strategy is on how they approach betting on Manchester City matches. Here are the responses…
Jake Osgathorpe
At the Etihad, there’s always a pretty big price on a Manchester City win and BTTS no matter the opponent. While it seems unlikely an inferior side will strike at the home of the champions, it does happen a fair deal. Across City’s 15 home game win streak, nine have seen the opposition find the net.
Given their dominance at home, backing City on the Asian Handicap is another way to go, with the line usually around the -2.0 mark unless taking on a ‘big six’ member.
In fact, if you’d backed the -2.0 blindly in all City home games no matter the opponent since the start of last season, you would be in profit, with it winning 10 times and pushing seven across their 24 home games.
- Explainer = “backing -2.0 on the Asian handicap means that if City win by exactly two goals we get our money back, if they win by three or more we get a winner and if they lose, draw or win by just one goal we lose money”
They can be opposed away from home against good teams. Last season, they won just one of their eight games against teams that finished in the top nine. This term they’ve lost at Arsenal and drawn with Chelsea.
Liam Kelly
I completely ignore Manchester City as a betting proposition for the majority of the season, to be honest, only looking at their possible value in the high-quality, marquee games.
They’re often too short to be of any interest in any other match and backing them with goal handicaps is a bit too risky for my liking, especially away from home. Pep’s side have enough quality to absolutely blow teams away, but their controlling style makes it difficult to predict when exactly that might happen and when they’re happy to just coast to victory.
I’m sure many add them to accumulators, but in having no real interest in placing that type of bet, there’s maybe only two or three times per season that I actually have a go on a City game, which makes them pretty uninteresting to me save for a few unmissable match-ups and any possible ante-post bets.
My advice would be to save your money for a case-by-case, special occasion plunge in regard to City, rather than throwing money on a wide range of matches.
Tom Carnduff
I'm similar to Liam in that I largely avoid games involving City, but I do hold some interest when they are a half-decent price away at a Premier League title rival.
Recently, I've found that the increasingly popular 'to score or assist' market is one way to approach and Julian Alvarez has been my player here - you're often getting odds-against on some goal involvement.
This will continue in the short term with Kevin De Bruyne still sidelined through injury.
After this, attention will likely shift to the centre midfielders and looking at Rodri and Bernardo Silva. A lot of the time, you're still getting odds-on prices that City hit 3+ goals - in theory opening up six goal involvement slots.
Targeting those individuals is my way to go, although, as you'd expect, you're getting very little on Haaland here.
Michael Beardmore
Manchester City are lauded for their style and panache under Pep Guardiola – and rightly so. But this sometimes disguises the fact they are a team featuring a host of physical beasts.
Goal machine Erling Haaland is the prime example, but their squad is littered with six-footers.
It’s no surprise then that City have netted the second most goals from set-pieces (seven) in the Premier League this season. They scored the fifth-most from set-plays last term and topped the standings the season before (21).
This season, hulking defensive midfielder Rodri has already scored four, centre-halves Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake have three and two goals respectively.
Robbed of Kevin De Bruyne through injury as well as the summer departures of regular scorers Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez, City are spreading the goals around more than ever, so back the big men at big prices.
James Cantrill
“We’re everyone's cup final.”
An outlandish statement that can be heard from the terraces of any given half-decent side in the football league.
In Manchester City’s case it is true. They are the best team in the land, maybe even on the planet, and are treated with the respect their quality deserves.
This often means that if City’s opponents get their noses in front, they pull out all the stops to cling onto their lead and this often involves some of the dark arts, not least time wasting.
I am with the fellas in the sense that on most occasions City are not an appetising betting proposition. If I am punting on one of their games, most likely I will be backing their opponents to win and their keeper to be carded.
Since the beginning of the 2020/21, Man City have only lost 25 games and on five of those occasions, the opposition's stopper has been booked for running down the clock.
Ninad Barbadikar
Betting on Manchester City is tricky business, but there is some value in the player markets, though - specifically, looking at headed goals. The Cityzens are second so far this season for headed goals in the Premier League with six, just behind West Ham who have seven.
Last season they finished the campaign with 12, ranking fifth by doing so. You’d be surprised at the prices you can get for headed goals for City players.
Combine the fact that City are second for set-piece goals this season, there is value in taking a small bet on headers in my opinion.
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