Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts e.w. Arsenal to win the FA Cup at 13/2 (Paddy Power 1/2 1,2)
1pt e.w. Brentford to win the FA Cup at 40/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
0.5pt e.w. Wolves to win the FA Cup at 80/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
Matching what the FA Cup delivered last season will be tricky.
In what was regularly referred to as "the year of the underdog," football's oldest knockout competition followed in the footsteps of the Carabao Cup - won by Newcastle after a 70-year wait - and the Premier League - where Nottingham Forest battled towards the top all campaign and ultimately qualified for Europe - as Oliver Glasner led Crystal Palace to their first major trophy.
They did it in true storybook fashion, beating Manchester City at Wembley through a goal from Eberechi Eze, capping a rags to riches story for a player who had dragged himself back from rejection after rejection to rebuild his career in the EFL and eventually become an England international.
Highly unusual. And highly unlikely to be repeated.
The Manchester clubs, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool have dominated the FA Cup since 1991, with Palace becoming just the fifth team since then - joining Everton, Portsmouth, Wigan and Leicester - to lift the trophy.
What was interesting last season was that City were the only 'big six' club to make it past the fifth round. At that stage, 13 of the 16 remaining teams weren't competing in European competition - United and Aston Villa were the only others alongside City.
It's becoming a lot more common - it was 10 the previous season and 12 the two campaigns prior, which does mean there is logic in backing bigger prices too.
Unsurprisingly, the established elite clubs lead the betting, save for Newcastle squeezing ahead of Manchester United as fifth favourites.
FA Cup winner odds (via Sky Bet)
Each-way: 1/2 odds, 2 places
- Man City - 9/2
- Liverpool - 5/1
- Arsenal - 6/1
- Chelsea - 8/1
- Newcastle - 9/1
- Man Utd, Tottenham - 14/1
- Aston Villa - 16/1
- 22/1 - bar
Any selection for an unseeded cup competition is fraught with danger, and requires even more luck than usual. The best place to start is ruling teams out by looking at the only definite information we have: the third round draw.
There are four all-Premier League ties: Tottenham vs Aston Villa, Everton v Sunderland, Newcastle v Bournemouth and Manchester United v Brighton. It makes no sense to back any of those eight clubs before round four.
Another five ties look like potential 'banana skins' for top-flight teams who are either competing in Europe or had deep FA Cup runs last season (or both): Burnley v Millwall, Wrexham v Nottingham Forest, Charlton v Chelsea, Fulham v Middlesbrough and Portsmouth v Arsenal.
Those two away ties for Chelsea and ARSENAL have helped to push their prices out a little and Mikel Arteta's side are the one shorter-priced favourite who should be backed TO WIN THE FA CUP.
At 13/2, we'll take the each-way terms for them to reach the final too.
The Gunners have been by far and away the most consistent team in the country this season, reaching the last four of the Carabao Cup, topping the Champions League table with a 100% record and losing only two of their opening 20 Premier League matches to open up a six-point lead.
All of this has been achieved despite regular injury setbacks to key players but in a major difference to previous years they now have the best squad depth in the division.
Arteta's team are also able to stand up to any physicality the opposition bring, so they are less likely to fall to a cup shock.
The Spanish coach has been building towards this season since lifting the FA Cup in his opening campaign in 2020 and the more it goes on, the more it feels likely Arsenal will end it with multiple trophies.
As favourites to win the Premier League and Champions League, and 13/8 joint-favourites to win the Carabao Cup, we should take advantage of them trailing Manchester City and Liverpool in the betting for this competition.
City, who host League One club Exeter, are simply far too short given the random draw element.
Add into that the current injury crisis engulfing Pep Guardiola's squad (especially defensively) and they should be left alone at 9/2.
Liverpool, meanwhile, may have been handed an equally straightforward tie at home to Barnsley, but they continue to struggle - both with injuries and performances.
Moreover, Arne Slot has already played severely weakened teams at Plymouth in this competition a year ago and at home to Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup this season, and accepted the consequences, so cannot be trusted.
With the Reds scrapping to squeeze into a Champions League place, it's hard to see him prioritising the FA Cup.
Rounding off the single-figure prices, I must admit that were it not for recent events I would have considered backing Chelsea at 17/2.
Former boss Enzo Maresca proved his ability to deliver trophies during 18 months at Stamford Bridge and as players return from injury the Blues boast some of the best squad depth in the top flight. They have no excuse not to fight on all fronts.
Ultimately though there is far too much uncertainty with Liam Rosenior now taking the reins.
In part by process of elimination, in part because their style of play should help them progress no matter the opposition and in part because Keith Andrews is doing a terrific job BRENTFORD are also advised as a 40/1 each-way selection, which pays at 20/1 for reaching the final.
In what is the Irishman's maiden managerial season since stepping up to replace long-serving boss Thomas Frank, the Bees are in the cluster of teams battling for a European place. Never did they look like getting dragged into trouble either.
Igor Thiago has proven to be one of the players of the season, with only Erling Haaland ahead of him in the Premier League goalscoring charts.
They begin with a trip to Championship crisis club Sheffield Wednesday, a tie they ought to easily progress from.
Leeds, Sunderland, Wolves and Burnley are the only top-flight clubs priced longer than Brentford. Three are in a relegation battle and Sunderland face an unenviable trip to Everton.
Speaking of WOLVES are they really in a relegation battle? Or are they already as good as down?
The FA Cup may well be the only chance Rob Edwards has to build some momentum for next season and he will certainly want to take any opportunity to give his players that winning feeling. It really is a mercy that they have been given (on paper) the easiest draw of any Premier League team with a home tie against struggling League Two club Shrewsbury.
It being a short trip for the visitors ought to mean there is some atmosphere too, helping Wolves as much as the potential giant killers.
Mixed in with the continued losses and terrible moments there have been some encouraging signs of progress since Edwards replaced Vitor Pereira, with those who were paying close attention far from shocked by their draw at Old Trafford and 3-0 thrashing of West Ham.
The cup may just be the platform where Edwards' work is allowed to properly come out. Of course it is a really hopeful selection, but at 80/1 each-way (40/1 to reach the final) it feels worth a speculative dart.
Odds correct at 11:00 GMT (6/1/26)
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