- Tom Carnduff's 25/26 tipping record: P/L: +30.58pts | ROI: 26% | Staked: 117.5pts | Returned: 148.08pts
Football betting tips: FA Cup
Friday
1pt Wrexham to beat Nottingham Forest (19:30) at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
Saturday
1pt Cheltenham to beat Leicester (12:15) at 9/2 (General)
1pt Blackpool to beat Ipswich (15:00) at 17/2 (BetVictor)
1pt Weston-super-Mare to beat Grimsby (17:45) at 10/1 (General)
Sunday
1pt Mansfield to beat Sheffield United (14:30) at 13/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt QPR to beat West Ham (14:30) at 5/1 (Paddy Power)
- Note: All bets are 'normal time' (i.e. in 90 minutes/not extra-time and penalties) only
I have an equal level of love and hate for this now yearly article.
For the past few seasons I've put together a potential shocks piece for this stage of the FA Cup and there have been some good winners. As you'd expect, it does offer up some massive prices.
But then this always feels like the one which could make you appear the idiot. Siding with teams sitting as 8/1 outsiders to win over 90 minutes always has the potential for a thrashing.
The short-price favourite could go full strength and smash six past an outfit sitting a division or two lower. They could also make the changes needed for an upset. It's about trying to find that ideal situation.
As ever, the third round draw did present some ties which immediately jumped out as potential upsets. The distance between the draw and the actual games does also make prices disappear.
National League outfit Boreham Wood are around evens to beat League One Burton - that was one of those on the original shortlist but now it's just not worth it.
Fortunately, there are still a few outcomes out there still worth backing.
Wrexham vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
I'm actually not going to moan about Wrexham being a TV pick for once. It's much better this than a game between two sides in the same division. Although that could well be the case next season.
Nottingham Forest are battling for Premier League survival and their focus may well be elsewhere. Hardly ideal travelling to a Wrexham side who have done fairly well in this competition under Phil Parkinson.
They were stunned in a first round defeat to Harrogate last season but the two campaigns prior delivered appearances in the fourth round. A reminder they entered at that first round stage when not a Championship club.
The general price of 4/1 is enough to tempt me into backing WREXHAM for victory.
Parkinson's side head into the weekend on the back of a four-game winning run and they haven't lost at home since QPR secured a 3-1 victory in mid-September.
Since then, their home record reads six wins and four draws in ten outings. That includes three points against runaway leaders Coventry.
Forest, on the other hand, had lost each of their previous three league outings before beating West Ham in midweek (although that could have been a different story had a Hammers player not been marginally offside to make it 2-0 to the hosts) and could only secure a scrappy 1-0 win over Wolves, a club bottom of the Premier League table by some distance.
Dyche's Everton side required a replay to beat Crystal Palace in 23/24 before a fourth round loss at home to Luton. Burnley were dumped out by Huddersfield in the third round in 21/22.
They required extra-time to get past MK Dons at the third round stage the season prior. Cup competitions have never seemingly been high on Dyche's priority list.
That could be in part due to Burnley and Everton's league situations when he was there. Given Forest's current troubles though, the same may well apply.
It looks a price which is slightly too big given the contrasting form.
Cheltenham vs Leicester
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:15 GMT
- TV: Discovery+
- Live odds, form and stats
A glance at the Sky Bet League Two table may leave you thinking that Cheltenham are looking over their shoulder a bit at that relegation zone but it couldn't be further from the truth.
Having gained just four points from a possible 30 to start their season, Steve Cotterill has transformed their fortunes and pushed them well away from trouble.
They've won eight of their 15 since with promotion hopefuls Notts County and Swindon the only sides to beat them at home.
Given Leicester's current situation, I am interested in the 9/2 for CHELTENHAM TO WIN.
In a full season going at their points-per-game rate under Cotterill, Cheltenham would gain around 80. That would secure automatic promotion in three of the previous five seasons with it enough to finish 4th in the other two.
That's impressive enough on its own let alone when we factor in the mess he walked into at the end of September.
Leicester hammered QPR 6-2 in the third round last season. Who was manager for their opponents? Current boss Martí Cifuentes. They were also beaten in the third round the season prior.
The Foxes have issues this season and Cifuentes is under big pressure from the fanbase. A fortunate victory over West Brom on Monday night shouldn't change much.
I'll side with the much-improved home side in this one.
Ipswich vs Blackpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
I'm still a little bit stunned by Blackpool's result on New Year's Day if I'm being honest.
Ian Evatt's side were 1-0 up away at Port Vale before a controversial red card reduced them to ten just before the break. A second-half collapse then followed to lose 5-1.
Last time out saw defeat to promotion hopefuls Bradford but I'm still intrigued by the 8/1 on offer for a BLACKPOOL WIN.
Kieran McKenna's side have their focus on a return to the Premier League and they look capable of doing just that following a slow start to the campaign.
They currently sit two points off second in the Sky Bet Championship table so you'd expect some rotation here, as was the case in a previous FA Cup upset.
When Ipswich were last promoted in 23/24, they were eliminated in the fourth round by National League South side Maidstone after beating AFC Wimbledon a few weeks earlier.
It's worth noting that while they may have won all four home games against the Championship's bottom four, their opponents did at least find the net.
If Blackpool continue with the attack they've used in league games, they are capable of causing some problems to a changed Ipswich defence.
It's always a bit trickier asking for something when the underdogs are the away side but then we are getting a bigger price worth taking.
Grimsby vs Weston-super-Mare
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:45 GMT
- TV: Discovery+
- Live odds, form and stats
Grimsby have made a name for themselves as giant killers this season following their Carabao Cup success over Manchester United back in August.
But they have the potential to be the ones beaten at short odds when WESTON-SUPER-MARE visit in one of Saturday's late kick-off.
David Artell's men looked like real promotion contenders across the first few months of the season but that has eased off in recent weeks - they sit 12th and seven points adrift of the top seven.
They have, at least, won back-to-back games now but before that they hadn't won any of their previous nine outings - a run which stretched back to mid-October.
A side out of form and with the potential to rotate a bit does make them vulnerable to the upset.
Weston-super-Mare's away form could have been a bit better for a side chasing promotion but then they still sit second in the National League South table.
Centre forward Louis Britton sits third in the division's scoring charts and netted twice in their second round victory away at Chelmsford. In fact, he's struck in five of his previous seven league outings.
The Mariners did thrash National League outfit Wealdstone in the last round which does concern me slightly. That said, they're in very much 'mid-table nothingness' territory.
At 10/1 and above with some, the price is appealing enough to take the away side.
Sheffield United vs Mansfield
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:30 GMT
- TV: Discovery+
- Live odds, form and stats
Chris 'Chrissy' Wilder doesn't seem to be overly fussed by the FA Cup.
This was summed up last season when a crowd of just 6,126 turned up to watch Sheffield United beaten by a Cardiff side eventually relegated in a game that was, for some reason, televised on a Thursday night.
He may have left in the summer but he's back and if he wasn't bothered about the competition when they were in the midst of a promotion battle, what attitude will he take with his side clear of real relegation trouble but one which will feel it could close the nine-point gap to the play-offs?
Considering what we know about his approach to the cup, I'll take the 6s and above on a MANSFIELD WIN.
In the 20/21 season, Sheffield United had gained just TWO points by the time the third round arrived in their diabolic Premier League campaign so he had to make an effort with a third round trip to Bristol Rovers. Even then, they only won 3-2.
The 19/20 campaign saw a narrow 2-1 win over AFC Fylde having changed his XI. The promotion season prior delivered a home defeat to Barnet.
And for Mansfield, they come into the contest in good form with their last two wins coming to-nil against Bolton and Bradford - both of those sides sit in the top five of the Sky Bet League One table.
They're also led by a manager in Nigel Clough who, of course, took the Blades to the semi-final of this competition in 2014.
I'm hoping for more rotation coming into play from Wilder. If so, we can expect the visitors to be a much shorter price at kick-off.
West Ham vs QPR
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:30 GMT
- TV: Discovery+
- Live odds, form and stats
I had to add this one in after Tuesday night really.
West Ham's home defeat to Nottingham Forest leaves them seven points adrift of safety with 17 games left. They already need to find a three-game swing somewhere.
That may not sound like much but keep in mind they've won three league games all season. So they now need to find three more wins than Forest in fewer games. It is far easier said than done.
I'm writing this on Wednesday so there's every chance it's not Nuno Espirito Santo in the West Ham dugout but I'm still going to side with a QPR WIN at 5/1.
Boos ring around the London Stadium after West Ham lose to Nottingham Forest 🔊 pic.twitter.com/k6jQSz5gaC
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) January 6, 2026
The Hammers faithful are understandably fed up. Years of poor management have led to this moment and enthusiasm for any outing simply isn't there.
In fact, if you're around the area and fancy taking in a game, there are hundreds of tickets available in each section. Not the whole stadium, each one of the top sections.
QPR have had issues against the top teams in the Championship but Julien Stéphan's record in French cup competitions does catch my eye.
He guided Rennes to the semi-finals of the Coupe de France in 2024 (they were beaten by PSG) but actually lifted the trophy in his first spell at the club in 2019. The following year, they again made the semi-finals.
Perhaps West Ham view this as a must-win as they try to build some momentum. Given the atmosphere around the club though, I'll side with another defeat at a big price.
Odds correct at 10:15 GMT (07/01/26)
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