Football betting tips: FA Cup
Saturday
1pt Burton to beat West Ham (12:15) at 15/2 (bet365, Paddy Power)
Sunday
1pt Birmingham to beat Leeds (12:00) at 13/5 (General)
1pt Stoke to beat Fulham (14:00) at 7/2 (General)
- Note: All bets are 'normal time' (i.e. in 90 minutes/not extra-time and penalties) only
The third round edition of this column returned a profit but I can't help but feel a little bit annoyed that it wasn't more.
Mansfield beat Sheffield United having been backed at 13/2 to do so, yet QPR took West Ham to extra-time (5/1 for the win) while Wrexham failed to capitalise on a commanding position to also go beyond the 90 minutes as a 4/1 shot against Nottingham Forest.
I'm always uncertain whether or not to continue into the fourth round given the fixture list, of course, reduces. There's far less to go at and you're hoping the draw is kind enough to open up some potential.
That looks to be the case this time around with a fair few Premier League clubs drawn away. Nine in total are on the road with only two of those involved in all-top-flight clashes.
Others are given virtually free passes through to the fifth round. Manchester City host Salford having hammered Exeter of a league above 10-1 a few weeks ago while Arsenal take on a managerless Wigan.
As ever, I'll include the usual disclaimer that it could go very wrong and we have to accept that's a part of it. Ultimately, we're often siding with teams who play a division or two below their opponent and should the favourite go strong in their team selection, we may end up with a long 90 minutes ahead.
Burton vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:15 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
A quick glance at the Sky Bet League One table will have you believe this should be a straightforward win for West Ham, even if they're having problems of their own.
The Brewers are 21st and well in the mix of a good handful of teams who are real relegation contenders this season.
The thing is...Burton are a bit weird.
Against those around them, they don't pick up a great deal (although they did thrash Northampton 5-1 not too long ago). In 13 games against those 15th or lower, they've won just two while drawing four more.
Focus on games against those at the top and you can see they're a real nuisance. They've won four of ten against teams in the top six with two ending in draws. All four defeats were by a single goal.
Three of those defeats were away as well while the sole home loss to Lincoln happened in mid-September. Just the other week they held Cardiff - the side who should end up winning the league - to a 2-2 draw having beaten them in Wales earlier in the campaign.
West Ham have been improved and find themselves on a good run of form but focus is surely on their own relegation battle and a trip to a League One team who can be awkward just jumps out as a potential upset.
A price of 15/2 is available with a few bookmakers on the BURTON WIN while they are 4/1 to qualify. Keeping with the spirit of the third round though, I'll side with the 90 minutes price.
West Ham opted for some rotation in that win over QPR but went with a strong front line. I'm hoping given their recent league form they won't want to risk some of those starters.
They've also played five games since the third round. Not only have they dragged themselves back into the picture but it's now much closer to the end of the campaign. I'm not sure how much they'll welcome further games knowing some of the others above them have European commitments.
In a meeting of two strugglers, I'll side with the hosts.
Birmingham vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Sunday, 12:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Live odds, form and stats
Leeds don't lose often. In fact, just two of their last 14 across all competitions have seen them leave with nothing - those being to Arsenal and Newcastle as well.
Daniel Farke's got his side going and they now hold a comfortable enough position in the battle to avoid Premier League relegation.
In fact, Opta give the Whites a 4.8% chance of relegation at this stage of the season - it's a 5.1% chance they finish in the top half.
But rotation is expected again here and Leeds don't operate with the biggest squad. Fringe players such as Sam Byram and Joël Piroe should make appearances in a likely line-up that will leave us scratching our heads trying to work out the formation.
BIRMINGHAM will fancy their chances of the upset in front of their own supporters and I think the 13/5 available on them TO WIN is appealing enough.
They may have missed a penalty but Leeds were 1-0 down to Derby in the last round before eventually winning 3-1. Going behind here will be a much tougher task.
The attack will likely feature Daniel James and Wilfried Gnonto so the visitors will carry a serious threat going forward. What I am hoping for with this selection though is a disjointed showing which often comes with making a number of changes.
This is also a Birmingham side who haven't lost at home since Hull beat them in mid-October. They've played 11 games since then with six ending in victory.
Stoke vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Discovery+
- Live odds, form and stats
I'm honestly on the fence a little bit with this pick but at the prices on offer I think it's just about worth a go.
STOKE are 7/2 TO WIN when they host Fulham and I'm hoping we see similar in terms of team selection from the third round.
The Potters beat previous Sky Bet Championship leaders Coventry and had an XI out which resembled what was near enough their league side. Fulham beat Middlesbrough but opted to change around half of their starters.
That game was also at home whereas a trip on the road is a slightly different prospect.
Ultimately, Stoke just aren't great but their games are usually very tight. In fact, no side has seen more games go under 2.5 goals in the Sky Bet Championship this season (20 of their 32).
They've scored 19 times at home and conceded 14. Southampton became the only team to beat Stoke as a visiting side by greater than a one-goal margin in a recent 2-0 success.
Stoke haven't won in six now but I'm focusing on how low-event their games usually are. It could prove to be a good thing if they can restrict what could be a changed Fulham front line.
And they are led by Mark Robins, the man who guided Coventry to the FA Cup semi-finals in 2024 and a toenail offside denied them a spot in the final.
You're getting a similar price on Oxford to beat Sunderland at the same time, while League One strugglers Port Vale are shorter to beat Bristol City of the league above.
This game could be completely rubbish, which makes the hosts an attractive option at 7/2 if only a single goal is required.
Odds correct at 08:35 GMT (12/02/26)
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