Everton v Watford tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Everton look to regain the winning thread at home to Watford and Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Over 2.5 Goals at Evens (Mansion Bet)
1pt Everton -2 on the corner handicap at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Everton had the chance to secure their best start to a season since 1978/79 as they lined up against West Ham at Goodison Park on Sunday, but the Toffees were lethargic as an Angelo Ogbonna header saw the Hammers take all three points.
The performance was something of a worry for Rafa Benitez, but it is easy to understand just why the Spaniard set up in this manner, facing one of the league’s better teams without Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, leaving Salomón Rondón to plough a lone furrow up top on his own.
It is instinctive to sit off when your main attacking threat is missing, but if there is one thing that can be said about Everton this season, it is that they have been ruthless against the division’s poorer sides, beating Southampton, Brighton, Burnley and Norwich all by two-goal margins.
In fact, Everton have been impressive in attack this season, with only last season’s top four and West Ham scoring more times than the Toffees this term, Benitez’ men averaging two goals a game at Goodison Park.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Everton 8/13 | Draw 14/5 | Watford 9/2
Everton’s style of play under Benitez is clear to see; they average the second lowest possession in the division, but average the seventh most shots, the seventh most shots on target, the eight most crosses per game, and have scored the most counter-attacking goals.
If Everton are happy to surrender possession then, it will be an interesting game against Watford, who have the lowest average possession in the league so far.
Claudio Ranieri started his reign in the worst possible way, losing 5-0 to a rampant Liverpool last week, and he looks to have a monumental task on his hands to keep the Hornets in the Premier League.
Watford were far from prolific scorers in the Sky Bet Championship last season, relying on defensive solidity to win matches, and while their attacking prowess hasn’t improved this term, boasting the joint-worst Expected Goals For (xGF) in the division, they have struggled at the other end as well, conceding 15 goals in eights games, the third most.
The Hornets have conceded in every match so far this season and it is tough to see Everton not finding the back of the net, even with Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison still sidelined.
And when Everton get one, they tend to get another, scoring one on just one occasion this season.
Six of Everton eight matches have seen Over 2.5 Goals priced up at odds-against, despite there being three or more goals in 50% of them, and again the overs looks to have been priced up too large.
Given matches involving both Everton and Watford see an average match total of 2.75 goals, it is highly plausible that this game goes OVER 2.5 GOALS.
Also worth looking into is the corner betting in this match, and in particular who might have the most flag-kicks.
Only Brentford have won fewer corners than Watford this season, while only Norwich and Chelsea have conceded more.
Watford have lost the corner battle in each of their eight matches so far this season, and on five of those occasions have lost by more than two.
That makes backing EVERTON -2 ON THE CORNER HANDICAP at a price of 11/8 very appealing, and a bet certainly worth getting on side.
Everton v Watford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Over 2.5 Goals at Evens (Mansion Bet)
- 1pt Everton -2 on the corner handicap at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Everton 3-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (21/10/21)
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