We can expect to see some Manchester City changes at Everton on Sunday, opening up value in the stats markets.
1.5pts Aymeric Laporte to have 1+ total shots at 6/5 (Ladbrokes)
Everton deserve significant praise for the way they dismantled Brighton in a 5-1 thrashing last time out, but their biggest challenge now is ensuring complacency doesn't appear after one good result.
It delivered three crucial points to lift them out of the relegation zone, but three games remain and there's every chance they're back in it at the end of the weekend. They're going to be near perfect to get anything against this Manchester City side.
One bonus is that City's Champions League tie with Real Madrid hangs in the balance ahead of next week's second leg. Rotation is likely for the visitors, but we know the quality in depth they possess and how little of a problem it is to bring players in and out.
Oh they've rested Erling Haaland? In steps Argentina's World Cup winning striker Julian Alvarez. The in-form Jack Grealish given 90 minutes off? Right, well here's Phil Foden to deal with instead.
Wholesale changes won't happen as they are still involved in the Premier League title race - and this is a great chance to really apply further pressure to Arsenal as they face Brighton later on Sunday.
But even with a couple of expected changes, the difference between the two sides remains drastic. If Haaland isn't in the XI at 13:00, there still shouldn't be a rush to suddenly back Everton at the prices available.
Looking at Pep Guardiola's previous City line-ups around Champions League fixtures has Aymeric Laporte in defence, and it's worth taking the 6/5 on LAPORTE 1+ TOTAL SHOTS if he is starting again.
The centre-back is clearly a back-up option in this City side now, but he did start against Leeds last weekend, with appearances against Leicester and Forest before that.
The significance of the previous two is that Forest was prior to the Leipzig game and Leicester was in between their two legs against Bayern in the quarter-finals of the competition.
I'm still unconvinced by Everton's set-piece defending, even after Sean Dyche's appointment, and we can expect to see Laporte at the other end of the pitch a fair few times from corners and free-kicks.
He's registered at least one shot in five of nine Premier League games this season, with three of those seeing multiple efforts attempted.
An opposition centre-back has seen a shot taken in each of Everton's last six outings, with Leicester's Çağlar Söyüncü finding the net in the second phase of a set-piece situation.
Unsurprisingly, Everton face a City side averaging 6.35 corners per game, with 5.63 in away contests, underlining how their style of play and indeed attacking quality lead to a higher tally in this area than most.
It's a slight gamble, as ever with Guardiola's team selection, but the value is there in backing LAPORTE for some involvement if he returns to the team again here.
Score prediction: Everton 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 0750 BST (12/05/23)
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