Football betting tips: Champions League
0.5pt Aihen Munoz to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Patrick Dorgu to be carded at 10/3 (bet365)
0.5pt Leny Yoro to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt A red card in the match at 9/2 (bet365, William Hill)
0.25pt A red card each team at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 55/1
- Aihen Munoz to be carded
- Patrick Dorgu to be carded
- Leny Yoro to be carded
Ruben Amorim has been incharge of Manchester United for 16 Premier League games.
His first was a 1-1 draw at Ipswich and the most recent was a 3-2 win against the same opposition but what has changed since he arrived?
Domestically, he inherited a side in 12th averaging 1.36 points a game (W4 D3 L4) and now they are in 14th averaging 1.13 points a game (W5 D3 L8).
The 10-men battled well to come from behind against the Tractor Boys in their last league outing, scoring twice from set pieces against a side destined for the drop.
Highlights of Amorim’s reign were the win at the Etihad, a draw at Anfield and their penalty shoot out success at the Emirates in the FA Cup third round.
The performances were good in isolation but they weren’t built on, and the Red Devils have since been knocked out of the FA Cup.
In the Europa League under Amorim, they have won all four of their games but made hard work of them all at average odds of 1/2.
On the whole, United have been disappointing but still capable of pulling a rabbit out of a hat. It is why, betting wise, the 1X2 doesn't appeal. Without a clean sheet in six, you can’t trust the Red Devils defensively so the goal line is probably best avoided as well.
Cards are the way to go. It’s a clash between two obliging teams, refereed by a card-happy Slovakian.
What are the best bets?
Ivan Kruzliak has great form for cards in European competitions. In the Champions League he’s averaged five cards per game and in the Europa, he has dished out 5.6 per match across 35 appearances.
Kruzliak has also brandished 16 red cards in the Europa League, giving a RED CARD TO EACH TEAM on three separate occasions.
Real Sociedad have picked up five reds this term, while nine red cards have been flashed in games involving them. Interestingly, there have been four sendings off in their last five games, and three of their 10 UEL games have seen A RED CARD.
Manchester United have picked up five red cards in all competitions and been involved in six games with a red. All things considered, both a sending off in the match and both teams to get a red card are worth a punt.
The player card markets are also worth a visit where Sociedad's left-back AIHEN MUNOZ is 11/2 TO BE CARDED.
Munoz has a career cards per 90 average of 0.27 which makes this price simply too big. The full back has four bookings in just 599 minutes of La Liga action this term and has been booked and sent off in six European appearances.
The left side of Manchester United’s defence also looks vulnerable, with PATRICK DORGU is expected to start at wing back with LENY YORO behind him a left centre back.
Dorgu's United career has not got off to the best start. In three starts he has been booked once then was sent off against Ipswich after being at fault for their opening goal.
He’s 10/3 TO BE CARDED and Yoro is also worth a punt at 4/1.
- CLICK HERE to back Patrick Dorgu to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Leny Yoro to be carded with Sky Bet
Yoro picked up five bookings in 58 appearances before joining the Red Devils and he has three in 19 appearances since.
Him and Dorgu will be tasked with containing Takefusa Kubo, Sociedad’s most fouled player domestically.
Kubo has started five games on the right in this competition and a left sided opposition player has been carded on four occasions: one left back, one left wing back and two left wingers.
Team news
Kubo is back available for the hosts after serving a domestic suspension as is Martin Zubimendi and Jon Aramburu who were suspended for the second leg of the playoff. All three should feature from the off.
Imanol Alguacil will be without Jon Pacheco and and Arsen Zakharyan due to injuries.
As for the visitors, Amorim looks set to be without a host of players. Altay Bayindir, Toby Collyer, Amad Diallo, Jonny Evans, Kobbie Mainoo, Lisandro Martinez, Mason Mount and Luke Shaw are all ruled out.
Harry Maguire is also a doubt with a knock and his absence should see Victor Lindelof slot into central defence for his fifth start of the season.
Predicted line-ups
Real Sociedad: Remiro; Aramburu, Zubeldia, Aguerd, Munoz; Sucic, Zubimendi, Mendez; Kubo, Oyarzabal, Barrenetxea
Manchester United: Onana; De Ligt, Lindelof, Yoro; Dalot, Ugarte, Casemiro, Dorgu; Garnacho, Fernandes; Zirkzee
Match facts
- Real Sociedad have won just one of their previous six European encounters against Manchester United (D2 L3), with that win coming in the group stage of this competition at Old Trafford in September 2022. They won that game 1-0 courtesy of a Brais Méndez penalty, which remains their only goal against them.
- Real Sociedad have never beaten an English side on home soil in Europe (D1 L3), failing to score in each of the last three matches (all against Man Utd). They are, however, one of six sides to score in 100% of their UEFA Europa League games this season (10/10), with Man Utd also doing so (8/8).
- Man Utd have lost just one of their last eight away games against Spanish opposition in Europe (W5 D2), however that defeat did come in their most recent such encounter, losing 3-0 at Sevilla in the second leg of the 2022-23 UEFA Europa League quarter final.
- Real Sociedad have failed to progress from any of their previous four last 16 ties in major European competition, since knocking German side 1. FC Köln out of the UEFA Cup back in 1988-89.
- Man Utd are averaging 18.8 shots per game in the UEFA Europa League this season, the most of any side still in the competition and their best ratio in a European season on record (since 2003-04). They also have the highest average sequence time (12.9 seconds), passes per sequence (4.5) and possession (61.2%).
Odds correct at 1110 GMT (05/03/25)
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