Football betting tips: Europa League
1pt Bernardo Natan to be carded at 18/5 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt Morato to be carded at 11/4 (William Hill)
0.5pt Natan and Morato both to be carded double at 12/1 (General)
0.5pt A red card in the match at 5/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt Both teams to have a red card at 80/1 (William Hill)
After a 29 year absence, Nottingham Forest reacquaint themselves with European football on Wednesday as they head to Andalusia to take on Real Betis in the Europa League.
Their manager, Ange Postecoglou, famously won this competition with Tottenham last season but his reign at the City Ground has not gotten off to the best of starts. He is three games in and is yet to see his side win.
Arsenal beat them 3-0 in his first match, the honours were shared at Turf Moor last weekend and in between those clashes they conceded two stoppage time goals at Swansea to be eliminated from the Carabao Cup.
Big Ange must be concerned by the manner of defeat in the latter as Forest were two goals up against their Championship opponents heading into the final 25 minutes of the match.
Neutrals loved his gung-ho tactics and brash nature at Tottenham, at times it must have exhausted the Spurs faithful, but it is worth noting he tightened things up on the continent, especially in the final against Manchester United.
So, although it is early days at Forest, if he’s learnt anything about this competition we might see a more conservative approach from the visitors on Wednesday.
The hosts are managed by Manuel Pellegrini and his side is littered with former Premier League players with Junior Firpo, Hector Bellerin, Sofyan Amrabat, Pablo Fornals, Giovani Lo Celso and Anthony on their books.
Betis have started the campaign well (W2 D3 L1) and are amongst La Liga’s most attacking sides, ranking in the top quarter for goals scored (9), shots per game (15.5) and xG (9.53).
I am aware that all of the above points towards a goal laden clash but the referee appointment has steered me away from over 2.5 goals and towards the card markets.
Sascha Stegemann has the whistle in Seville and he loves to flash the cards in the Europa League.
Across eight appearances, this referee has averaged just under eight cards per game, not once giving fewer than five and he has hit double figures on three separate occasions.
Player cards have to be the way in and for the hosts, it's centre-back BERNARDO NATAN’s price TO BE CARDED appeals.
Natan has picked up three bookings in twice as many league appearances this term and four in 21 appearances on the continent across his career (0.36 cards per 90).
As for Nottingham Forest, Oleksandr Zinchenko’s absence from the squad should see MORATO start at left back.
Morato has picked up one card in two Premier League appearances this term and five in 907 minutes of top flight action last term.
Naturally, I’ll be backing the pair of Brazilian's in a CARD DOUBLE at 12/1 but think the red card market is worth flagging as well.
This referee sent nine players off in 33 games last season but more importantly dished out four in six European appearances, which includes a Europa League qualifier and a Champions League qualifier.
A RED CARD IN THE MATCH is 5/1 with William Hill and BOTH TEAMS TO HAVE A RED CARD is 80/1 with the same firm, both are worth a punt.
Odds correct at 1550 BST (23/09/25)
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