Euro 2020 betting tips: Italy v Austria best bets and preview
The most impressive team of the Euros so far, Italy, take on Austria in the round of 16 on Saturday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting a best bet.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Italy v Austria
2pts Italy to win to nil in 90 minutes at 13/10 (BetVictor)
It’s fair to say that Italy have been one of the most impressive sides at Euro 2020.
Roberto Mancini’s side breezed through Group A, with many expecting them to have things a bit more difficult given the perceived quality of their opponents.
They were emphatic, winning all three games to nil, while offering an excellent attacking threat throughout – an area many expected them to struggle in.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: BBC One
Venue: Wembley Stadium - London, England
Italy 1/2 | Draw 29/10 | Austria 6/1
Awesome Azzurri
Creating chances was something the Italians did excellently, racking up 6.8 expected goals (xG) – an average of 2.27 per game.
Defensively they have been as impressive, allowing just 1.4 xG in three games – an average of just 0.47 per game.
These numbers a simply staggering, and the Italians deserve huge respect moving forwards in this tournament, respect I don’t feel the bookies are giving them ahead of this round of 16 tie.
Mancini’s men are unbeaten in 30 games – the joint longest unbeaten run in Italy national team history – and have kept 11 straight clean sheets. That’s nearly 1,000 minutes of football without conceding.
After dominating Turkey and Switzerland, Italy rang the changes against Wales and were still as dominant, showing that this is very much a talented SQUAD rather than just an XI.
Austria there for taking
In a game where the draw was the 5/4 favourite, it was Austria who prevailed against Ukraine to guarantee their progression to the round of 16.
They couldn’t afford to lose that game, and were deserving of their victory, dominating from start to finish against a Ukraine team that didn’t look at all interested in playing Italy in the round of 16.
While the Austrians impressed against the two ‘lesser’ teams in Group C, also beating North Macedonia handily, ahead of this game we should apply more weight to their match against the Netherlands.
💪 A commanding win for Netherlands books their place in the last 16 of #Euro2020 but they could have scored more.
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) June 17, 2021
📈 Their xG of 3.46 against Austria was the third highest of the tournament so far behind Wales (3.83 v Turkey) and Ukraine (3.68 v North Macedonia)#NED #NEDAUT
They were shocking in that game, offering next to nothing in attack, while looking incredibly vulnerable defensively – not a good sign ahead of this match.
Austria allowed 3.46 xG, and a similarly poor performance would see them exiting the competition with a whimper.
Get Italy onside
It is surprising to see Italy at a backable 1/2 to win this game in 90 minutes given what we have seen from them so far, and I do wonder if the price is bigger because this game isn’t in Rome.
I feel as though the bookies are underestimating the Italians here, and reckon they should be closer to 1/3 for this game, so if backing short prices is your thing, back Italy to win the game.
If you want something above evens, ITALY TO WIN TO NIL is where it’s at.
Available at 13/10 with BetVictor and 5/4 generally, there is a huge amount of value on offer given what we have seen from Roberto Mancini’s side so far, and the Austrians when they played a better team.
I’d make this around even money, so the prices available are staggering – especially given the fact Italy have won to nil in all of their last 11 matches.
Expect another comfortable win for Italy.
Italy v Austria best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Italy to win to nil in 90 minutes at 13/10 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Italy 2-0 Austria (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1210 BST (23/06/21)
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