Euro 2020 betting tips: France v Switzerland
Tournament favourites France take on Switzerland in the round of 16. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Euro 2020 betting tips: France v Switzerland
1pt France to win 1-0 in 90 minutes at 5/1 (Bet365)
1pt France to win 2-0 in 90 minutes at 6/1 (Bet365)
France progressed from the “group of death” as winners, though they have only actually won one game at Euro 2020 thus far, an intriguing 1-0 victory over Germany in their tournament opener.
Didier Deschamps’s France are a pragmatic side, not too interested in keeping the ball for prolonged periods, but rather concentrating on transitions, and they did this perfectly against the Germans, retaining the ball for just 46% of the match but causing Joachim Low’s side big problems on the counter, Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappe both having goals ruled out for offside.
France followed that win with consecutive draws, the first a shock 1-1 against Hungary, the second an entertaining 2-2 against Portugal, a result both sides were ultimately happy with.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV Channel: ITV 1
Venue: National Arena - Bucharest, Romania
France 8/15 | Draw 3/1 | Switzerland 21/4
France remain something of an enigma at Euro 2020 though, yet to really spark into life and retaining an inescapable feeling that there is so much more to come.
Paul Pogba has been terrific in midfield, while N’Golo Kante has covered more grass in the Puskas Arena than Zoltan Molnar – a man who spent 28 years as groundsman at the old stadium before it was demolished and rebuilt.
But, Kylian Mbappe is yet to set the tournament alight, while Benzema’s two goals against Portugal were much needed after two underwhelming performances from the Real Madrid man in the first two matches.
This has been a bit of a theme for France at major tournaments under Deschamps though, at Euro 2016 they failed to collect maximum points in the group stage, drawing with Switzerland in the final group game, and in the 2018 World Cup they beat Australia and Peru by a single goal each before drawing their final group game against Denmark.
The knockout stages is where France come alive, and the Swiss have plenty of reasons to be fearful.
Switzerland qualified from Group A in third place, having drawn with Wales and beaten Turkey, and are themselves a little tricky to work out.
Against Robert Page’s side they were utterly dominant and really should have won the game, Kieffer Moore’s headed goal seemingly knocking them off stride, but against Italy they were woeful, showing little adventure and seemingly happy to take the defeat and move on.
A 3-1 win against Turkey was a great way for Xherdan Shaqiri’s side to end the group stage, but given how poor Turkey were in their three matches at Euro 2020, it is tough to assess just how much that victory is worth.
Side with a France victory
It is difficult to see a way in which Switzerland prevent France from winning this game, particularly given how passive they were against Italy, and it means getting France onside is the only real way to bet on this match.
Lots of punters scoff at backing odds-on shots, preferring to trawl through niche markets to try and come up with a big-priced selection, but sometimes, backing the favourite is the best way to go.
Admittedly, a price of 8/15 is short, but if you’re not averse to getting onboard a well-fancied jolly, you might struggle to find a better odds-on shot than France to beat Switzerland.
Favourites have fared well at this tournament too, and in fact, had you backed the favourite in every match with a clear favourite throughout the group stage, you would have returned a profit.
France's pragmatism to pay dividends
However, it is certainly also worth looking at the amount of goals likely to be scored in the match, and while both these sides saw four goals in their final group games respectively, we are unlikely to see a repeat of that, with France sure to manage this tie in a controlled and pragmatic manner.
Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ is currently priced up at around 8/13, meaning the bookmakers really do not fancy both sides finding the net in this game, but with France around 1/7 to score, what that really means is they do not fancy Switzerland to find the net.
So, the bookmakers are saying France will score and Switzerland will not. So, we are looking at a bet involving a France win to nil, which is available at 11/8. However, France to win and Under 2.5 Goals in the match is available at a bigger price of 17/10.
Obviously, with this bet we do not have the luxury of a 3-0, 4-0 or even bigger France win without reply, but given the bookmakers are also favouring the Unders side of Over/Under 2.5 Goals, this is the bet worth focusing on.
Now, 17/10 seems an interesting price for France to win and Under 2.5 Goals in the match, but what you are effectively betting on is France to win either 1-0 or 2-0, and by backing both those correct scores with Bet365, you actually increase the odds.
France to win 1-0 is 5/1, while 2-0 is 6/1, so by taking the shortest of the two prices (5/1), and taking into account that two bets are being placed, the lowest price we are getting for France and Under 2.5 Goals is actually 5/2, with 2-0 in fact paying out at 3/1.
Given all this then, backing FRANCE TO WIN 1-0 and FRANCE TO WIN 2-0 with equal stakes is the shrewd play in this fixture.
France v Switzerland best bets and score prediction
- 1pt France to win 1-0 in 90 minutes at 5/1 (Bet365)
- 1pt France to win 2-0 in 90 minutes at 6/1 (Bet365)
Score prediction: France 1-0 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1430 BST (25/06/21)
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