Tom Carnduff looks at the Euro 2020 semi-final between England and Denmark with three best bets advised alongside a score prediction.
Euro 2020 betting tips: England v Denmark
2.5pts Denmark to have over 3.5 corners at 10/11 (Betway)
1pt Mason Mount to have 1+ assists at 4/1 (Unibet)
1pt Luke Shaw to have 1+ assists at 11/2 (Betfair)
England are not only in the semi-final of a European Championship, they've done so on the back of a convincing victory in the quarter-final. Gareth Southgate's men comfortably beat Ukraine 4-0 in Rome with a strong second-half performance confirming their spot in the final four. Next up is Denmark, arguably England's toughest game so far.
Denmark have been the story of the tournament so far. Liam Kelly's excellent analysis piece on the Danes explains why they will pose a threat on Wednesday night and the odds on them being successful here are generous. England have been convincing though - they will fancy their chances of justifying their odds-on price.
The bonus for the Three Lions is that they are back at Wembley for this game and then again for the final if they get there. Home advantage has proven to be key in this tournament and Denmark have benefitted from strong support up until this stage. This should be the night where England end their long wait for an appearance in the final of a major tournament.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: ITV
Venue: Wembley Stadium - London, England
England 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Denmark 17/4
England are less than even money for success in 90 minutes - with an even shorter 1/3 available on them making the final - which is hardly a surprise when we consider that they are now the 11/8 favourites to lift the trophy at the weekend. Denmark are unsurprisingly 10/1 outright outsiders because they are expected to exit at this point.
One area where Denmark have excelled throughout the tournament is corners. They regularly post a high count with two against Belgium being the anomaly. Kasper Hjulmand's side took seven corners against Czech Republic and Russia and nine in meetings against Finland and Wales. Due to their status as outsiders here, the prices on Denmark corners are big.
You can make a case for any of the higher numbers, but there is 10/11 available on OVER 3.5 DENMARK CORNERS in this game. Near enough even money looks incredibly generous when we factor in that their tournament average is 6.8 so far.
England conceded four corners to Ukraine in their last game. Czech Republic also had four in their group stage game at Wembley while Scotland registered five. Germany fell under the 3.5 marker but only just with three on their tally at the final whistle.
We could play to the averages more but England games don't tend to see a high overall count and four seems more than achievable for this Denmark side. They have had four corners in one half in three of their five Euro 2020 games.
A bet that won on Saturday and one well worth taking again is MASON MOUNT TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS at a best price of 4/1. He got the helper on Jordan Henderson's header from a corner but he probably should have had more than the one on his tally before then.
His Expected Assists (xA) figure now stands at a significant 1.47. It's worth remembering that Mount's period of self-isolation has taken away appearances for him - he has only played three games so far.
It's a generous price when we consider that his xA tally at the conclusion of the Premier League season with Chelsea was 10.04. He also got two assists from 2.13 xA in the Champions League - quite remarkably the same xA figure as Expected Goals (xG) which was also 2.13 after 11 appearances.
England are clearly a strong side at set-pieces and Mount is one of those on corner and free-kick duty. Alongside him is LUKE SHAW and it's also worth a play on the 11/2 price with Betfair for SHAW TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS. He got two in the win over Ukraine.
That took his tournament tally up to three but two of those have come from open play. The advantage England have at set-pieces helps the possibility of Shaw getting assists although there is a real presence down the left side of the pitch.
Shaw's three assists have also come from an xA of 2.01 which demonstrates the quality of chances he is creating for his side. A point of interest here is that two of the five goals Denmark have conceded at this tournament have been assisted by a player on the left - Czech Republic's goal was assisted by another full-back from the right in Vladimir Coufal.
While Joakim Mæhle has been catching the eye down the left, Denmark's right has been more open to attacks - they saw 15% of shots conceded come from their right side compared with just 8% to their left in the group stages. That has carried over to the knockout stages - 18% to 10% in favour of the right.
It may not be as comfortable as the odds suggest but England should be able to carry their momentum from the quarter-final into this game. The Three Lions can end their long wait for a final appearance, in a game where SHAW and MOUNT can star as Denmark see their fair share of CORNERS.
England v Denmark best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Denmark to have over 3.5 corners at 10/11 (Betway)
- 1pt Mason Mount to have 1+ assists at 4/1 (Unibet)
- 1pt Luke Shaw to have 1+ assists at 11/2 (Betfair)
Score prediction: England 2-0 Denmark (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1535 BST (05/07/21)
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