England v Ukraine tips: Euro 2024 qualifying best bets and preview
England's Euro 2024 qualification campaign continues with a home contest against Ukraine on Sunday. Tom Carnduff has a trio of goalscorers to back.
Football betting tips: Euro qualifying
1.25pts Bukayo Saka to score anytime at 9/4 (bet365)
0.75pt John Stones to score anytime at 12/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt Oleksandr Zinchenko to score anytime at 22/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
England's Euro 2024 qualification campaign began with their toughest game of the group. A 2-1 victory over Italy in Naples delivered a perfect start - a contest where a point would have been viewed as an acceptable outcome.
In Ukraine, they face a side who narrowly missed out on promotion to the top-flight of the Nations League in the most recent campaign. An outsider for a top two spot in this group, but a team who can be considered the 'best of the rest'.
The expected home win for the Three Lions is much-needed after an uninspiring run of results in familiar surroundings. They were hammered 4-0 by Hungary at Molineux, held by Italy at the same location while also somehow avoiding defeat to Germany at Wembley.
Despite that desired competitive nature of the Nations League - a concept I actually like as it eliminates largely pointless friendlies - it'll never be viewed with the same importance as actual qualification for the top nations.
It's vital for those further down the rankings, a breakthrough route to actual tournament involvement for those who usually wouldn't see it. But for England, they won't be reflecting too much on that winless run last year.
They should make it six points from six here, and anything less than that will be seen as disappointing. I'm sure there will be no over the top reaction if they don't win - the usual rational reaction when England don't perform at the top level.
We can expect another start and another solid performance from Bukayo Saka, and we're taking the 9/4 best price on SAKA TO SCORE ANYTIME here.
While it's easy to think there will be mass rotation, this is still a competitive fixture, and for Gareth Southgate there is no benefit in fielding anything other than the strongest possible XI available.
Saka is, rightly, a trusted individual in the England set-up and someone who regularly delivers for both club and country. Huge credit must be given for his reaction to that disappointing penalty miss in the Euro 2020 final.
His World Cup campaign delivered three goals in four appearances - the forward sat out the Wales game as England had already secured progression - and that was a continuation of his good scoring form for Arsenal.
Saka's returned 12 goals and ten assists in 28 outings for the Premier League leaders. He went into this international break on the back of five goals across his past seven league contests.
He also had a shot on target in the win over Italy, a close range opportunity saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma, with at least one shot in each of his four World Cup games.
Expect the Three Lions to dominate opportunities throughout, and they should see a few corners too, meaning JOHN STONES TO SCORE ANYTIME is an interesting play at 12/1.
A regular starter for England, Stones and Harry Maguire is Southgate's trusted centre-back pairing and it shouldn't change on Sunday.
Under Southgate, England have a strong track record of creating opportunities from attacking set-pieces. Maguire is largely at the centre of this but Stones has more than played his part.
He scored in the World Cup qualification draw with Hungary, returning at least one shot in three of his five outings at the actual tournament. One of the games that fell short was against France, a far more elite defence that guided them to the final.
Those chances also tallied up a decent expected goals (xG) tally of 0.72. Essentially, he could have easily scored at least once based on the underlying numbers.
Opportunity is key here though and England will be on the front foot. They have players capable of delivering quality crosses - Stones has shown in the past that he can convert.
And finally, a small play on a player who shouldn't be playing in the position he does for his club side - one in which the prices don't quite reflect accurately.
Best odds of 22/1 are available on OLEKSANDR ZINCHENKO TO SCORE ANYTIME. He shouldn't be in the left-back role we see him in at Arsenal.
For his country, Zinchenko typically plays more advanced. Whether that be in central midfield, attacking midfield or out wide, he will pose more of an attacking threat than he does in the Premier League.
Zinchenko and Mudryk training with the Ukrainian squad 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/iq2rHYZSsY
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) March 22, 2023
Even then, he does get forward for Arsenal, but this position allows him more opportunities to find goal. It's reflected in his higher scoring rate for his country.
Zinchenko has scored once in 27 outings for the Gunners this season, yet has eight in 52 caps for Ukraine - that works out as a goal every 6.5 games.
His most recent was during the 2-0 win over Bosnia in World Cup qualifying - five games ago for him - while he featured in centre midfield during the Nations League draw with Ireland, his last game for his country.
There's a debate to be had for whether or not Ukraine will actually find a way through this England defence, but this is a big value play and a price based on his club position, not the one for his country. He may also be given penalty duties.
The Three Lions should win this, as their 1/4 price suggests, but the best value comes in SAKA, STONES or ZINCHENKO having goal involvement.
England v Ukraine best bets and score prediction
- 1.25pts Bukayo Saka to score anytime at 9/4 (bet365)
- 0.75pt John Stones to score anytime at 12/1 (William Hill)
- 0.5pt Oleksandr Zinchenko to score anytime at 22/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: England 3-1 Ukraine (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (24/03/23)
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