Derby v Bournemouth: Championship preview and best bets
After a profitable international break, Joe Rindl returns with the preview and best bet for Championship leaders Bournemouth's trip to Derby.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt e.w. Dominic Solanke to score first at 4/1 (bet365) (e.w terms - 1/3 odds for 1-98 places)
Derby’s season couldn’t get any worse right? Right?
Over the international break Derby were deducted nine points after admitting breaches of English Football League accounting rules.
Those nine points have been added to the 12 points the club were already docked for entering administration in September.
The latest penalty leaves Wayne Rooney's side on -3 points and 18 points from safety at the bottom of the Championship table.
The Rams are in serious trouble. Any hope of staying up has seemingly fizzled out.
Even without the deductions Derby would be struggling. They’d be sitting in 18th, albeit seven clear of the drop zone, having not won in any of their past seven outings.
And two of Derby’s last three matches have ended in defeat, a worrying statistics ahead of their match-up against Bournemouth, which will be followed by a trip to Fulham in midweek.
Kick-off time: 12:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Derby 10/3 | Draw 5/2 | Bournemouth 17/20
Ten wins, one loss and one draw. Bournemouth have been superb across their last 12 games, racing to the top of the Championship, and now sit a pretty eight points clear of West Brom in third.
Scott Parker’s men have found the winning formula and are sticking to it. Their final game before the international break saw them smash midtable Swansea 4-0, a thoroughly justified result considering they won the expected goals battle 4.05 to 0.26.
Only Fulham have scored more goals in the second tier than the Cherries. Nobody has conceded fewer.
Even their recent loss to Preston at the start of November saw them edge the xG battle (1.4-1.04). In their past four fixtures, that was the only match they didn’t win by at least two goals.
In front of the TV cameras, Bournemouth will be hoping to put on a display against the league’s bottom club.
Solanke to continue purple patch?
I will happily back Bournemouth striker DOMINIC SOLANKE each way to net the game’s first goal at 4/1.
The 24-year-old is having the season of his life for the Cherries, having scored 14 times in 18 games in all competitions.
He’s also netted six goals in his last five appearances and has found the net at least once in five of his last seven.
The former Liverpool forward is averaging 0.78 goals per match from an xG of 0.75 in the Championship, helped in large part by Parker putting him on penalty duties.
He’s scored the first goal in three of his last four outings. Against a creaky Derby defence I expect him to extend that record to four from five.
Outside of the goalscorer markets I was initially drawn to Both Teams To Score.
That’s a play that has come through in all of Derby's past five Championship fixtures. While Bournemouth have managed a goal in each of their last seven, only firing blanks in two Championship games so far this season.
I’m certain the Cherries will net at least one but I can’t be sure Derby will do their part and find the back of the net.
Given Bournemouth's defensive record - 10 goals conceded in only 17 (comfortably the best in Championship) - and Derby's goal record (13 scored in 17 the third worst in the division) odds of even money just isn't big enough to tempt me.
But if the price does drift significantly before kick-off, I’m happy to get on board.
Derby v Bournemouth score prediction and best bets
- 1pt e.w. Dominic Solanke to score first at 4/1 (bet365) (e.w terms - 1/3 odds for 1-98 places)
Score prediction: Derby 1-3 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct 1330 GMT (18/11/21)
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