Crystal Palace v Newcastle tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Newcastle travel to Crystal Palace in search of their first win of the season. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Newcastle to win at 3/1 (General)
1pt Over 3.5 match cards at 19/20 (Betway)
Crystal Palace come into this match unbeaten in their last three, but they are also winless in their last three, drawing at home to Brighton and Leicester and more recently away at Arsenal.
Last gasp winners have denied the Eagles three points on two of those occasions, leaving Patrick Vieira bemoaning his side’s misfortune, but they were two goals down against Leicester, mounting a comeback of their own, so their fortunes haven’t all been one sided.
Palace were impressive at the Emirates on Monday night, or at least they were in spells, pressing well and putting the Gunners under pressure, though they struggled to create many chances of note, both their goals coming from strikes from outside of the box, with poor defending to blame on both occasions.
In fact, despite having scored more goals than Leeds, Brighton, Arsenal and Tottenham, to name a few, this season, Palace are actually creating chances equating to just 1.20 Expected Goals For (xGF) per match, which is down on the 1.25 per match that they generated across Roy Hodgson’s tenure – though that did admittedly drop off towards the end of his reign.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Crystal Palace 19/20 | Draw 5/2 | Newcastle 29/10
Defensively as well, Palace have been far from convincing, with only five teams in the division conceding more goals than them. Perhaps the talk of a revolution at Selhurst Park is a little premature then.
Here, they face a Newcastle team buoyed by the recent takeover news, as well as the fact that Steve Bruce has now been relived of his duties as Magpies manager.
Graeme Jones looks set to take the reigns for this game, but with the lined-up manager likely to be watching, this is a chance for each individual to prove they deserve to stay at the club, and perhaps deserve a thicker pay-packet as well.
Everything looked to be going swimmingly against Tottenham last week, St James’ Park was electric, and Newcastle has taken the lead inside two minutes, but things quickly went sour, Tottenham scoring three first half goals to go into the break with a two-goal cushion, one that ultimately prove unassailable for Newcastle, despite an 89th-minute Eric Dier own goal providing them with a glimmer of hope.
It was always going to be a tough ask to beat Tottenham, but this is a much more winnable fixture, and one the Magpies should target in order to gain their first three points of the season.
Crystal Palace being priced up at odds-on to win this fixture immediately looks short. They have faced Brentford, Tottenham, Brighton and Leicester at Selhurst Park this season and were 6/4 or bigger on each occasion.
Newcastle, on the other hand, are a bigger price to win here than they were to win away at Watford.
All in all, Palace look too short to win this match, and the Magpies look a little big, which means backing NEWCASTLE TO WIN at 3/1 is the first recommended bet.
Our second bet comes in the card market, and with both these sides favouring counter-attacking football, it is in siding with plenty of cautions that looks the way to go.
Only Brighton have been awarded more than the 19 bookings that Newcastle have received this season, and though Crystal Palace’s 11 isn’t that high, they have committed the sixth most fouls in the division so far, and with Conor Gallagher in particular charging around, they are more than capable of picking up a card or two.
There have been more than three cautions shown in three of Palace’s home games this season, as well as in five of Newcastle’s eight games home and away this season.
With plenty at stake here, as well as the added incentive for the Newcastle players, backing OVER 3.5 CARDS at a top price of 19/20 makes plenty of appeal.
Crystal Palace v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Newcastle to win at 3/1 (General)
- 1pt Over 3.5 match cards at 19/20 (Betway)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1210 BST (21/10/21)
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