Copa América betting tips: Argentina v Colombia best bets and preview
Argentina take on Colombia in the second Copa América semi-final, and Jake Osgathorpe has previewed the game, putting up two bets at odds of 6/5 and 11/1.
Copa América betting tips: Argentina v Colombia
2pts Argentina to win and Under 3.5 Goals in 90 minutes at 6/5 (General)
1pt Lionel Messi to score from outside the area in 90 minutes at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
Argentina had been a shadow of the team that made it all the way to the 2014 World Cup final, until recently.
La Albiceleste head into this Copa América semi-final unbeaten in 18 international matches, winning 11 of them – with their last defeat coming in the 2019 Copa América against Brazil.
Colombia came through the group stage in third spot with one win to their name, before getting past Uruguay on penalties in the quarter-finals.
Los Cafeteros are a very average and unbalanced side, boasting the Atalanta duo of Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel up front, two solid centre-backs in Davinson Sanchez and Yerry Mina, but the rest of the side is questionable, not up to the standard of Argentina.
Kick-off time: 02:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BBC iPlayer
Venue: Estádio Nacional Mané Garrincha - Brasilia, Brazil
Argentina 3/4 | Draw 9/4 | Colombia 9/2
Argentina have impressed
Argentina have been excellent throughout the Copa América so far, with the only blemish on their copybook a 1-1 draw in the group opener against Chile – a game they should have won comfortably according to expected goals (xG: ARG 2.92 – 1.55 CHI).
That is the only game the Argentineans have allowed over 1.50 xGA, while Lionel Scaloni’s side have been clicking in attack, averaging 2.70 xGF per game.
While Argentina have been creating good chances regularly, Colombia haven’t.
They have generated over 1.0 xGF in just two of their three matches, averaging a lowly 1.20 xGF per game, making them the worst attacking team of the remaining sides.
Colombia have preferred to play on the back foot and counter-attack, but have limited opponents relatively well so far, allowing less than 1.0 xGA per game, but did concede chances equating to 2.82 xG against the best team in the competition – Brazil.
Argentina aren’t far behind Brazil in my estimations, and should pose enough of an attacking threat to breach the Colombians, who will likely be playing to take the game to extra time and penalties.
With that being the case, ARGENTINA TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS in 90 minutes appeals greatly at 6/5.
Four of Argentina’s five Copa games have gone under 3.5 goals, with them winning three of those, while only six of their unbeaten 18 games have seen four or more goals.
All of Colombia’s games at the tournament have gone under the 3.5 line, including both of their defeats, so this bet looks a cracking one to me, with Argentina the superior side.
Back Messi to perform more magic
Lionel Messi is currently the Copa América top scorer with four, and while that may not surprise many of you, what is surprising is the amount of shots he is taking.
The diminutive superstar has taken 24 shots in five games so far, but what is eye-catching is that 16 of those attempts have come from outside of the box – 67% of his efforts!
It’s perhaps no surprise then that three of his four goals have come from range, with two of those direct free-kick goals, with the average xG of his shots being 0.14, showing that he is taking on low-probability chances.
With Messi taking so many attempts from distance, and his lethalness from direct free-kicks, the boosted 11/1 for LIONEL MESSI TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX in 90 minutes with Sky Bet looks worth a punt.
He is a magician, and given this game is likely to be attack v defence, there is every chance it will be a long-range strike that separates the sides.
Argentina v Colombia best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Argentina to win and Under 3.5 Goals in 90 minutes at 6/5 (General)
- 1pt Lionel Messi to score from outside the area in 90 minutes at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Argentina 2-0 Colombia (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1900 BST (05/07/2021)
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