Manchester City need Harry Kane, a chance creator and finisher
Perhaps it is the Harry Kane derby but the assumption was that there would be a Harry Kane-shaped void in the Tottenham attack and a Harry Kane-sized hole in the Manchester City forward line.
Then Nuno Espirito Santo surprised by saying the England captain would be available for Sunday’s contest between two clubs conducting a tug of war for his services, before being left out of the squad completely.
It is uncontroversial to suggest Kane would improve even City. As Spurs limped to seventh last season, he did the double: most goals (23) and assists (14) in the Premier League. With 37 direct goal involvements, it was his most productive top-flight season, but he has either scored or assisted at least 20 goals in each of the last seven, and at least 25 in five of them.
Numerically, he looks the logical successor to Sergio Aguero who, until his last year at the Etihad, had seven seasons of direct involvement in at least 19, topping out at 34 in 2014-15.
Aguero was a paradox, the second-highest ever scorer for Guardiola – behind only a certain other Argentine – and yet too much of a penalty-box poacher to be a quintessential Pep player.
Nor was Zlatan Ibrahimovic, a technically good target man. Robert Lewandowski’s goals, rather than his style of play, made him indispensable.
Kane feels different because he is two players in one: false nine and actual No. 9. His habit of dropping deep is a reason why he has become more creative, even if 2020/21 looked an outlier.
Last season, Kane ranked 12th in the division for touches in the penalty area; his 166 were little more than half of Mohamed Salah’s 313. Perhaps more pertinently, he ranked below two potential team-mates: Raheem Sterling (240) and even Jack Grealish (177).
That the list is dominated by players who could be called fast, narrow wingers – Salah, Sadio Mane, Sterling, Timo Werner and Marcus Rashford – shows a shift away from the old-school predator.
But there is also a difference in Kane’s game. Only 11.8 percent of his touches came in the 18-yard box last season. It was 19.2 percent in 2017-18 and 17.1 percent the following campaign.
In 2018-19, Aguero had 245 touches within the box, 21.5 percent of his overall total. Last season, in a bit-part role, he had 20.3 percent of his touches in the 18-yard area.
Part of City’s evolution revolved around Sterling: in both 2018-19 and 2019-20, he was second only to Salah for penalty-box touches. England adapted, with Sterling often running ahead of Kane; it is tempting to wonder if Guardiola has a similar plan in mind for City, albeit with the complication that Phil Foden and Grealish can also play on the left of the front three.
Another indication of how Kane could become the deeper attacking pivot Guardiola sometimes wants is shown in his work off the ball.
His number of pressures is higher in each of the last two seasons than the previous two: the big difference lies in the middle third, from 120 and 119 in successive campaigns to 219 and 190.
The striking king of middle-third pressures is Roberto Firmino (372 in 2017-18). Aguero managed 153 in 2018-19, the year he perhaps best fitted Guardiola’s vision of him but it is the only time since such records began that he topped 100.
Kane’s 190 last season put him behind only one City player – Rodri – in a table where defensive midfielders can dominate. The previous year, only Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne were ahead of him, though in both campaigns City had more of the ball than Tottenham, and thus less scope to regain it.
Kane’s career-best total of 14 assists poses a question of how creative he actually is: his previous best was seven, below Aguero’s eight in 2018-19. His expected assists (xA) last season was 7.40, a marked improvement, but the finishing, particularly of Heung-Min Son, elevated his actual total to 14.
Kane was only ninth in the division for expected assists, 29th for key passes per game and 37th for shot-creating actions per 90. He benefited from the clinical streak of Son, whose xG was 10.53 but who got 17 goals.
City had a number of players who underperformed their xG. They should not bank on Kane getting the same number of assists in their colours.
Their creators could appreciate him, though; Kane has beaten his expected goals in each of the last seven seasons, scoring 163 times from an xG of 138.16.
It renders him similar to Aguero, who bettered his xG in six of those seven campaigns, albeit by smaller margins. Over the last five, Kane has scored from 19.6 percent of his shots, just beating Aguero’s 18.9.
His year at the top of the assist charts may have been a one-off, much like Ilkay Gundogan’s sudden transformation into a scorer.
City prospered without a striker last season and with a false nine. In Kane, however, Guardiola may sense someone who could spend ever less time in the box but still get 19 penalty-area goals.
That hybrid - part finisher, part deep-lying creator – could mean he represents the best of both worlds.
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