Ilkay Gundogan: Manchester City's unlikeliest of goalscoring machines
This article was updated and republished after Manchester City's 4-1 win at Liverpool on February 7.
They are a select band. Four footballers have scored for Jurgen Klopp in Champions League finals, all of whom were at Anfield on Sunday.
Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah and Divock Origi struck for Liverpool in either 2018 or 2019. Ilkay Gundogan converted Borussia Dortmund’s penalty at Wembley in 2013.
And until the last few weeks, that was the most notable example of Gundogan being a goalscorer. Now he is City’s leading marksman in the Premier League, the most potent among central midfielders in the division as a whole.
Klopp’s protégé and one of Pep Guardiola’s favourites has reinvented himself. Manchester City’s title challenge is being propelled by two of their more-maligned players: Gundogan and John Stones.
Perhaps goalscoring life has begun at 30 for the German, who reached the milestone in October.
Gundogan has averaged a goal every 1.78 league games in his thirties. Before then, he averaged one every eight.
One reason for his sudden prolific streak is relatively obvious: Gundogan forged his reputation as a passer, but now he is shooting more.
Last season he had only six shots on target. He has had 12 this term – that he has scored nine goals gives him a ludicrous 75% conversion rate that is logically unsustainable.
He has had 31 attempts in total, including his brace and skied penalty on Sunday evening, equal with his total for the whole of 2019-20. And he is scoring from more than a quarter of his efforts, another indication of a purple patch.
In particular, he has become more shot-happy in recent weeks. He has had 26 efforts in his last 11 league games, scoring nine goals.
In that time, no City player has had more attempts and only Kevin De Bruyne has averaged more per 90 minutes; it speaks in part to a tactical switch by Guardiola to use his wingers in wider roles and get his central midfielders into the box more.
Gundogan has had 23 shots from inside the penalty area already this season, more than in any of his previous campaigns with City. He has been recast, seeing the ball less but in more dangerous areas.
When he struck against West Brom on December 15, he had 116 touches, his fifth century of the season. Since then, he has never topped 88. Some of the deeper duties are left to others.
Both his goals against Liverpool came from as close as realistically possible - his expected goals (xG) from his first six league games of the season had been just 0.21, showing how little he was once getting forward.
On the other side of the equation, he has a solitary assist this term; his City career has yielded just seven in five seasons all told.
But what it illustrates he is not a direct replacement for the injured De Bruyne, City’s assist king: Gundogan can be involved in the build-up, but he rarely supplies the final pass for a goal.
There is, of course, an element of overperformance when it comes to the German's scoring statistics, that may not carry on at the same remarkable rate.
But one of City’s more surprising success stories this season has provided the goals to power what seems like an unstoppable title charge.
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