Football betting tips: Super Sunday
2pts Liverpool win (Draw No Bet) at 11/8 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
1pt Both teams to score 'No' at 7/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
0.5pt No Goalscorer at 18/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
BuildABet @ 17/1
- Liverpool to win
- Mohamed Salah 1+ assists
- Enzo Fernandez to commit 2+ fouls
A week on from clinching the Premier League title by ruthlessly taking apart Tottenham, Liverpool head to seemingly revitalised Chelsea; seemingly being the operative word.
Two goals in the final seven minutes at Fulham a fortnight ago certainly prevented the Blues' season from spiralling into disaster, but wins over their near neighbours, at home to Everton and away to Swedish minnows Djurgardens is hardly evidence of a righted ship.
Prior to those successive top-flight wins, Chelsea had won only five of their previous 16 Premier League matches, with three of those against now relegated Leicester and Southampton, and Europa League-centric pushovers Spurs.
And yet they head into this match as overwhelming favourites - make it make sense!
What are the best bets?
Since beating Brentford to win a fifth straight league game on December 15 it's been a real struggle for Chelsea.
For a moment, they were even being considered as potential title rivals to Liverpool, sitting two points off the pace after their opening 16 fixtures. In the subsequent 18, Arne Slot's men have collected 20 more points than Enzo Maresca's, scoring more than twice as many goals in the process.
The results are one thing, but the dull nature of Chelsea's performances under their Italian coach has led to understandable groans from home supporters, and goes a long way to explaining why a Leicester fanbase who witnessed a 97-point season in the Sky Bet Championship last term grew tired of his methods as the campaign drew on, showing little disappointment when he departed.
Meanwhile, the idea that LIVERPOOL have dropped off in recent weeks and months is a fallacy, and perhaps simply a reflection of just how good they were in the early part of Slot's maiden season at the helm.
It appears to have gone unnoticed that they have won seven of their last eight top-flight games, so backing them at a healthy bit of odds-against in the DRAW NO BET is a simple choice here.
The straight away win at 23/10 was tempting, but speculation that Slot may rotate his team and give fringe players such as Harvey Elliott and Federico Chiesa a start, combined with the fact the Reds' objectively don't need anything from this match, means I prefer a slightly larger bet and the insurance of a potential returned stake.
Chelsea's aforementioned struggles in front of goal also has me willing to take the 7/4 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' and the 18/1 punt on NO GOALSCORER.
- CLICK HERE to back Both Teams to Score 'No' with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back No Goalscorer with Sky Bet
In their last five home matches, despite playing Leicester, Tottenham, Ipswich, Legia Warsaw and Everton, Chelsea have scored only six goals. Liverpool, meanwhile, have recorded clean sheets in three of their past four away matches, keeping out both Manchester City and PSG in that time.
Team news
Robert Sanchez and Christopher Nkunku should be back available after missing Chelsea's midweek trip to Djurgarden. Malo Gusto picked up a knock against Everton and is doubtful. Wesley Fofana, Marc Guiu and Mykhailo Mudryk are all missing.
Liverpool boss Arne Slot could rotate his XI and give some fringe players an opportunity now that the title has been secured. Conor Bradley is expected to return to the squad, with Joe Gomez now the Reds' only injury absentee.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Chalobah, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Madueke, Palmer, Neto; Jackson.
Liverpool: Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Tsimikas, Gravenberch, Elliott, Salah, Jones, Chiesa, Jota.
Match facts
- Chelsea are winless in their last 10 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions (D7 L3), only once before going longer without a win over the Reds (11 from 1985 to 1990).
- After their 2-1 win in October, Liverpool are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since their title-winning 2019-20 campaign. Arne Slot could become only the third Reds boss to win both of his first two league games against Chelsea in charge of the club, after Bill Shankly and Roy Evans.
- Chelsea have picked up 17 points in their last eight Premier League matches (W5 D2 L1), having collected just nine points from their previous 10 beforehand (W2 D3 L5).
- Champions Liverpool have scored in each of their last 30 Premier League matches since a 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest in September. The only side to have a longer scoring run within a single campaign was Arsenal in the 2001-02 campaign, who scored in all 38 games.
- Chelsea have not used a single player over the age of 27 in a Premier League match this season, with this run of 34 games the longest by a side in Premier League history. The previous longest had been a run of only six by Liverpool in April/May 2000.
- This will be Chelsea’s seventh Premier League game against a side already crowned champions, the most of any side. They’ve only won one of the previous six (D2 L3), beating Man Utd 1-0 in 2012-13, while one of their defeats was a 5-3 reverse against Liverpool in July 2020.
- Liverpool haven’t lost any of their last 20 Premier League matches in the month of May (W16 D4), though their last defeat was at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea in 2018.
- Only three players have created more chances in the Premier League this season than Chelsea’s Enzo Fernández (73). The only Argentinians to create more in a season record (since 2003-04) are Emiliano Buendía in 2019-20 for Norwich (83) and Erik Lamela in 2015-16 for Spurs (75).
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored 28 Premier League goals and has a further 18 assists this season and needs one goal or assist to equal the record for goal involvements in one season, held by Andrew Cole in 1993-94 and Alan Shearer in 1994-95 (34 goals, 13 assists in both instances).
- 32-year-old Mohamed Salah has 28 Premier League goals for Liverpool this season and needs one more goal to equal the record for goals aged 30 or older in a campaign, held by Didier Drogba for Chelsea in the 2009-10 season (29).
Odds correct at 0850 BST (2/5/25)
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