Our preview of the FA Cup final between Chelsea and Liverpool with best bets

Chelsea v Liverpool tips: FA Cup final preview and best bets

After duelling for the Carabao Cup final not long ago, Chelsea and Liverpool lock horns again at Wembley, this time in the FA Cup final. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.

Football betting tips: FA Cup final

2pts Under 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes at evens (bet365)

2pts Liverpool -1 corner handicap in 90 minutes at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Betfair new customer offer > http://ads.betfair.com/redirect.aspx?pid=3887764&bid=11068

We have a repeat of the Carabao Cup final this Saturday in yet another major cup final.

Liverpool were victorious the first time the pair met, winning on penalties after a goalless 120 minutes, and the quadruple chasing Reds are firm favourites at a general price of 8/15 to lift the FA Cup this weekend.

It is hard to back against Jurgen Klopp's men at the moment, with the Reds flying on all fronts, but to me there is no value in backing them in any way this weekend, and the same can be said for Chelsea, who are incredibly unpredictable at the minute.

Kick-off time: 16:45 BST, Saturday

TV Channel: BBC One and ITV

Chelsea 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Liverpool 12/5

Sky Bet offer FA Cup final -> http://m.skybet.com/go/event/29475453/bet?sels=1047959109&aff=688&dcmp=SL_ED_FOOTBALL_SLIP_diazsot_1405

That means we need to look elsewhere for our bets, and for the first selection we are heading to the goal markets.

Cup finals are usually very cagey affairs, as was the Carabao Cup final between these two, and I see no reason to think this won't be similar, meaning UNDER 2.5 GOALS IN 90 MINUTES is the selection.

Along with the recent Carabao final, all of the major finals played last season went Under 2.5 Goals - Champions League (1-0), Europa League (1-1), FA Cup (1-0) and Carabao Cup (1-0) - with teams not taking an overly attack-minded approach to such contests given what is at stake.

Add to this the fact that three of their four meetings between Chelsea and Liverpool since Thomas Tuchel was appointed have seen no more than three goals, and a price of even money starts to look too big.

Now, obviously Liverpool are capable of blitzing anyone on their day, and they could well score three themselves this weekend, but the signs are there that their attacking process has dipped of late, most likely to do with their strenuous schedule catching up to them.

liverpool rolling xG

In the league, Liverpool have averaged 1.73 xGF per game across their last six. In the six prior to that run, they had averaged 2.77. Granted we have to take into account the strength of opponents, but even with the eye-test it's clear to see that the Reds aren't finding it as easy as they did early on in the season to carve out excellent scoring chances.

Chelsea are far from Liverpool's level in attack, but they are a match for them defensively despite recent issues, and when it comes to the big games against the best team, Tuchel tightens things up drastically.

In Chelsea's 10 league matches against the big six this season, seven have seen Under 2.5 Goals land.

That should be the case again, especially with the pattern of play likely to be the same as the Carabao Cup final, which saw Chelsea sitting deep and trying to break, while Liverpool were the aggressors with a lot of territory but few decent chances.

And that brings me onto the second selection nicely, which is LIVERPOOL -1 CORNER HANDICAP IN 90 MINUTES.

Given the likely pattern of play, we can expect the Reds to rack up the corners at Wembley, just as they have done all season long.

In the league this term, Liverpool have racked up an average of 7.4 corners while allowing just 3.14, while Chelsea have racked up one corner fewer and allowed one corner more on average.

The Carabao Cup final saw Liverpool win the corner count 11-1 in normal time, while they won 12-3 on corners at Anfield early on in the season.

This bet has won in 11 of the Reds 16 league games since the turn of the year, mainly due to their style of play which relies heavily upon width, but also due to their opponents sitting deep and inviting the pressure.

I expect this FA Cup final to follow that pattern, and that means the 10/11 best price available for this bet has to be snapped up - it's generally 4/5 which is a bout right.

Chelsea v Liverpool best bets and score prediction

  • 2pts Under 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes at evens (bet365)
  • 2pt Liverpool -1 corner handicap in 90 minutes at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

Score prediction: Chelsea 0-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 15000 BST (10/05/22)

Thomas Tuchel and Jurgen Klopp meet again on Saturday
ALSO READ: Can Chelsea end Liverpool's quadruple bid?

More from Sporting Life

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.

Like what you've read?


Sporting Life
Join for free!
Access to exclusive features all for FREE - No monthly subscription fee
Race Replays
My stable horse tracker
giftOffers and prize draws
newsExclusive content