Chelsea are bang out of sorts as they welcome an equally cold Crystal Palace on Sunday. Jake Osgathorpe has the best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 17/20 (Betway)
When it rains, it pours.
That is exactly what Graham Potter must be feeling as his Chelsea side were beaten in midweek by Fulham, their fifth league defeat in seven games, but the pain didn't stop there, with midfielder Denis Zakaria subbed off injured to add to their long list of absentees, and if that wasn't bad enough, new star signing Joao Felix was given a straight red card meaning he will miss three games.
Chelsea now, no word of a lie, have literally a starting XI out injured, and this has to be factored in when judging Potter.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
Chelsea 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Crystal Palace 14/5
The display against Fulham was their best of the Potter era from an expected goals (xG) perspective, racking up 2.74 to Fulham's 0.65, but it is worth noting that Joao Felix was extremely influential and looked excellent, so it is a blow that he will be missing for the next trio of games.
Prior to that game, Chelsea had averaged 1.11 xGF and 1.49 xGA per game under their new manager, a bottom-half process that doesn't paint a pretty picture.
At home, they have been marginally better (1.21 xGF, 1.29 xGA per game), but the overall attacking struggles are obvious.
Crystal Palace have been hammered by both Fulham and Tottenham at home since the restart, beating only Bournemouth on the road, and I'm struggling to nail down who the Eagles are right now.
Last season they were a team pushing the European places according to data, this season it's more bottom-half-level.
Despite looking a more attack-minded team on paper this season, starting all of Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze and Wilfried Zaha, they have generated just 1.15 xGF per game, down on the 1.36 we saw last season.
Away from home that average drops to 1.06, so in theory we have two struggling attacking units going head-to-head on Sunday.
That has me leaning towards UNDER 2.5 GOALS as the selection.
A cagey game can be expected given neither of these sides look like scoring multiple goals, and the Under 2.5 bet has landed in four out of five Chelsea home games under Potter, and five of eight Palace away games this season.
Chelsea v Crystal Palace best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals at 21/20 (General)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (13/01/23)
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