Every year the race for promotion to the Premier League delivers. After all, with the play-offs ending in a moment of finality for all four teams involved, how could it not distribute drama?
- Article published on April 21
There is typically a lot more to play for at this stage of the season than the current situation in the Sky Bet Championship, however.
In regard to the automatic promotion places, Fulham were promoted to the Premier League on Tuesday night, while Bournemouth hold all the cards for the second spot, four points clear of third with two games in hand.
At the opposite end of the table, Derby are already down and Peterborough and Barnsley can be confidently labelled as the other two sides who will join them in League One next term.
Additionally, three of the four play-off positions appear to be filled. Huddersfield, Luton and Nottingham Forest enjoyed the Easter weekend more than most, separating themselves from the chocolate mess below.
Perhaps it doesn't make up for all the relative certainties with multiple games remaining, but the competition for the final play-off spot is a gripping one that includes a substantial amount of clubs.
Indeed, it's hard to draw the line as to where the battle stops exactly.
Just above West Brom, who sit in 12th, would be a sensible marker if not for the presence of Swansea behind the Baggies. If they win their game in hand, Swansea latch onto the pack chasing sixth-placed Sheffield United, which consists of Millwall, Blackburn, Middlesbrough, QPR and Coventry.
Championship Top 6 Finish odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/1 - Sheffield United
- 6/4 - Middlesbrough
- 5/1 - Millwall
- 18/1 - Blackburn
- 33/1 - QPR
- 66/1 - Coventry
- 500/1 - Swansea, West Brom
Odds correct at 1630 (20/04/22)
Blades and Boro gone off the boil
Sheffield United had the chance to create a buffer to the rest before a disappointing 1-1 draw with Bristol City at the weekend (xG: BRC 1.25 - 1.40 SHU), making it just one win in their last five league games.
It's not the best time to be having a tense moment, only exacerbated by the fact that their low-xG recent fixtures throw in the greater likelihood of variance. The Blades still remain the favourites with Infogol (41%) for the final spot, though, with others floundering at the same time.
Middlesbrough, who hold a 35% chance based on the same simulations, have problems of their own, gaining a single point across their last four matches. Boro haven't scored in that time, and have failed to test their opposition at the most important point of the season thus far, recording xG totals of 0.52, 0.64 and 0.77 after a fairly promising performance in a 1-0 defeat to Fulham.
The second best defence in the Championship according to underlying metrics (averaging 1.00 xGA per game) remains strong, but a swift turnaround is needed up top if Boro want to challenge for promotion. With games against Cardiff, Stoke and Preston following, a win at Swansea on Saturday would put them right back in the race.
Lions to roar into sixth?
Millwall could possibly feel a little aggrieved by the smaller chance given to them to make the top six (16%), especially when considering they're one of the few in-form teams in the play-off push.
Gary Rowett's side might well have been overachievers from a data perspective this season, sitting 15th on Infogol's xG table with an expected goal difference (xGD) of -4.1, but Millwall are in the fight with just three games to go, essentially rendering the previous 43 matches moot.
The Lions can now look forward to very winnable games against Birmingham and Peterborough. They'll also be hoping that Bournemouth secure promotion before their final-day meeting.
Rovers and Rangers run out of gas
Perhaps the most disappointing team in the last few months of the campaign has been Blackburn, who have gained only 11 points from a possible 45 since January 29.
Creating just 17.9 xG across those 15 games on its own is not good enough to be involved in the top six, but scoring a measly eight goals during that spell has almost ended their chances of promotion. Some solid defensive efforts are the only thing keeping Tony Mowbray's men in touch.
Although they are still technically in the hunt, Blackburn can be readily dismissed on current form.
QPR ended a five-game losing streak with a draw against Huddersfield and an unconvincing win against Derby in the past week, but their sheer inconsistency is enough to warrant their big price to finish in a play-off position.
The same can be said of Coventry, who have enjoyed a terrific season in the second tier. It's a difficult run-in for the Sky Blues, too, facing West Brom and Huddersfield sides that have a fair amount on the line.
Who has the hardest fixtures?
Talking of tough a schedule, Swansea's is a scary one. It's unlikely that Russell Martin's side will still be in the race after games against Middlesbrough, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, a solid explanation behind their 500/1 odds for a top six finish.
As mentioned, West Brom simply fall short of the line when drawing up this battle. Missed scoring opportunities have seriously afflicted their tumultuous campaign, scoring 47 goals from 68.2 xG. Rebounding in 2022/23 should be on their mind.
In truth, almost every Championship side have an eye on things beyond the 46 games this season. However, barring a tight relegation fight, it's possible that this kind of situation might deliver the most drama considering the finality involved.
Much like the end of the NBA season, we have a play-in before the play-offs.
