Football betting tips: Championship
3pts Burnley to be promoted at 3/1 (General)
2pts Burnley to win the title at 10/1 (General)
2pts Wolves to win the title at 11/2 (General)
1pt Watford to finish bottom at 25/1 (General)
1pt QPR to finish bottom at 20/1 (William Hill)
1pt Blackburn to finish bottom at 14/1 (General)
The Championship used to be one of the toughest divisions to predict.
Now, the advantage the three relegated Premier League clubs enjoy through parachute payments means that is no longer quite the case.
Over the past three seasons at least two of the teams dropping down have finished in the top four, with all three doing so in 2023/24.
Relegated Premier League clubs' first season in the Championship
- 25/26: Ipswich (2nd), Southampton (4th), Leicester (22nd)
- 24/25: Burnley (2nd), Sheff Utd (3rd), Luton (22nd)
- 23/24: Leicester (1st), Leeds (3rd), Southampton (4th)
There remains room for the odd shock. Hull's promotion through the play-offs last season certainly fell into that category, while Coventry's title win also upset the odds.
And in terms of storyline, last season was unrivalled as the Southampton spygate saga led to an unprecedented expulsion from the play-off final, and ramifications for the new campaign as they begin on -4 points.
Saints have stuck with head coach Tonda Eckert despite the damning verdict of the EFL tribunal that he was the driving force behind the club's cheating, and the consequences of an FA charge for bringing the game into disrepute remains ongoing.
Publicly the players have spoken of wanting to right what they consider to be a wrong, but it is hard to see anyone associated with the club getting an ounce of sympathy from opposition fans throughout what could turn out to be a brutal nine months, especially away from home.
Middlesbrough were the party most affected by Southampton's actions, but they must take accountability themselves for a collapse in form that cost them a place in the Premier League long before someone was spotted with an iPhone behind a tree at their training ground.
Kim Hellberg's team were top of the table and seven points clear of third before winning just four of their last 15 matches.
They failed to take a second chance in the play-offs, and fluffed their third when Saints were expelled.
How much of that baggage is carried into this season is hard to quantify; losing hometown heroes Hayden Hackney and Dael Fry won't help.
Championship title winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- West Ham - 7/4
- Wolves - 11/2
- Burnley - 9/1
- Middlesbrough - 9/1
- Southampton - 12/1
- Birmingham - 12/1
- Sheff Utd - 14/1
- Norwich - 14/1
- Wrexham - 18/1
Coventry's title triumph was only the fourth time in the past 10 seasons that the ante-post favourites failed to lift the trophy.
The last team to beat the odds were BURNLEY in 2022/23.
Relegated from the Premier League and replacing Sean Dyche with Vincent Kompany, they started the season sixth favourites at around 9/1 before winning the Championship by 10 points with 101 in total.
There have been several occasions where the favourites have come desperately close, too.
Two years later, Scott Parker replaced Kompany after his move to Bayern Munich and Burnley, sent off at 8/1, reached 100 points before losing the title to Leeds on goal difference.
Having failed to lure Kompany's former assistant Craig Bellamy, who remained with Wales, the Clarets have this time turned to Nicky Hayen.
The Belgian arrives after spells with Genk and Club Brugge. With the latter he won the title and guided the club to the Champions League last 16.
It is easy to read too much into Hayen's delayed appointment. Of the three relegated clubs, Burnley have undergone the least upheaval and once again the market appears to have underestimated them on their return to the Championship.
They are backed TO WIN THE TITLE at 10/1 and TO BE PROMOTED at 3/1.
West Ham, meanwhile, continue to oversee a complete squad rebuild that is likely to last most of the transfer window, although they do at least have the benefit of Nuno Espirito Santo remaining in charge.
They still possess resources no other club in the division can match, but such turnover means a slow start would be no surprise. Once everything settles down they should have more than enough quality to secure automatic promotion, but winning the title could prove more difficult than the odds suggest.
They also face significant off-field distractions.
Talks over the sale of a 25% stake in the club to a consortium headed by Amanda Staveley continue after earlier negotiations stalled, while allegations of sexual misconduct levelled at majority owner David Sullivan have created further uncertainty, with Sullivan advised not to attend home games because of concerns over fan unrest.
Life back in the Championship was never likely to be straightforward and, with West Ham 7/4 to win the title and 1/2 to be promoted, there is enough reason to strongly oppose them in the title race.
WOLVES, meanwhile, have had plenty of time to prepare for life back in the second tier having known their fate for most of last season.
Like Burnley, they begin the campaign with the bulk of a squad capable of competing - or not quite competing as it turns out - at Premier League level.
The experienced summer additions of Raul Jimenez and Kieran Trippier, and January arrival of Adam Armstrong add balance to a talented group that should benefit from last season's experience.
New head coach Cesar Peixoto inherits a side that was already showing encouraging signs under Rob Edwards.
Wolves lost just once in six league games across February and March before the final international break, beating Aston Villa and Liverpool while also drawing with Arsenal.
Peixoto now has a solid platform to build on and, as such, backing WOLVES TO WIN THE TITLE at 11/2 is advised.
Championship relegation odds (via Sky Bet)
- Lincoln - 4/6
- Bolton - 11/10
- Charlton - 6/5
- Cardiff - 6/5
- Preston - 4/1
- Portsmouth - 9/2
- Blackburn - 9/2
- Watford - 11/2
- QPR - 11/2
At the other end of the table the bookies seem pretty certain Lincoln's first second-tier campaign since 1961 will end after one year, with them very confident the Imps (7/4) will be bottom of the pile - no other side is shorter than 5/1 to do so.
History suggests otherwise.
In the last five seasons only two promoted clubs have gone straight back down, and only one - Wigan in 22/23 - finished bottom.
I've been stung by relegation betting a fair bit over the last couple of years, mainly putting up big prices mid-season only for a managerial change to drag a team to safety.
Ante-post, bookmakers are acutely aware of the dangers of the Championship, highlighted by Luton and Leicester suffering back-to-back relegations in each of the last two seasons, meaning there is very little value in the relegation market.
Where there are bigger prices, however, is TO FINISH BOTTOM.
Rather than trying to get too cute about it, I've spread my chances across three teams who I believe will really struggle over the next couple of seasons, as they show few positive signs.
BLACKBURN are first up at 14/1.
They have made a habit of surviving by narrow margins (19th in 23/24, 20th in 25/26) and needed Michael O'Neill to combine the job with his Northern Ireland role last season to preserve their Championship status.
His decision to return full-time to international football says plenty about the direction of the club.
Back for a second spell is Tony Mowbray and he faces a difficult challenge. With many of the clubs around them boasting bigger budgets, greater ambition or stronger momentum, another season battling near the foot of the table looks likely.
Then there are two of the Championship's established also-rans.
Amit Bhatia's decision to leave QPR's board and sell his stake in the club to pursue a minority investment in Liverpool brought the curtain down on an ownership chapter that, when it began in 2007, promised so much.
Although the club enjoyed time in the Premier League, the long-term transformation many anticipated never materialised.
Instead, recent years have been characterised by tightening finances, frequent squad rebuilds and a lack of stability.
Julien Stephan's side ended last season in dreadful form and the 20/1 about QPR TO FINISH BOTTOM looks worth taking.
The R's have finished between 15th and 20th in each of the last four seasons.
WATFORD (25/1) find themselves in a very similar position, with years of underachievement and uncertainty at ownership level leaving them vulnerable.
Their 16th-placed finish last term was their worst since 2010, and worryingly for Hornets' fans they have been consistently poor for three years now, collecting 56, 57 and 57 points.
The club has developed a reputation for instability and, despite regularly assembling squads capable of competing much higher up the table, relentless managerial turnover has repeatedly prevented any sustained progress.
Perhaps for the first time it is open to question whether there is enough individual talent within the current group to secure a mid-table finish, with the sale of star man Giorgi Chakvetadze to sister club Udinese a reflection of the owners' growing apathy.
What they haven't lost the appetite for is sacking managers.
Italian coach Alessio Dionisi is the new man in the dugout, Watford's 12th permanent boss since the summer of 2021 and the 24th in 14 years of Pozzo family ownership.
Buona fortuna, Alessio.
Odds correct at 09:30 BST (5/8/26)
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