Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Joey Veerman to be shown a card at 6/1 (bet365)
1pt Jurrien Timber to be shown a card at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Veerman to be sent off at 50/1 (General)
0.5pt Timber to be sent off at 80/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
BuildABet @ 22/1
- Joey Veerman to be shown a card
- Jurrien Timber to be shown a card
A meeting of two sides whose seasons are quickly unravelling into disappointment.
Dutch side PSV were recently dumped out of the domestic cup at the semi-final stage by Go Ahead Eagles, before days later the same opponent would secure a league victory which allowed Ajax to extend their lead to eight points at the top of the Eredivisie table.
It's a familiar feeling for Arsenal. They've allowed Liverpool to go 13 points clear in the Premier League title race and with that effectively over at this stage, the Champions League becomes their only chance of silverware.
But that will be difficult. Very difficult.
Mikel Arteta's men are on the same side of the bracket as Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, PSG and Real Madrid. While the round of 16 match-up may have been favourable, the route to the final certainly is not.
That's a problem for another day and the short term focus is coming back from the Netherlands with something. That may be a slight issue with their lack of striker options.
The only goals they've scored across their last four in all competitions came away at relegation-bound Leicester. The Mikel Merino experiment an indication of how short the options are.
It certainly looks a contest where your eyes are drawn to the 4/5 on under 2.5 goals.
What are the best bets?
But there's bigger prices out there which deliver a bit more interest.
Jesús Gil Manzano's appointment as the referee for this opens up a real potential for cards. He's had some eye-catching performances so far.
Three games officiated in LaLiga have returned double figures for cards shown, with at least seven coming in seven of his 13 top-flight outings.
Three of his four in this competition have seen at least five with ten in the Super Cup final between Barcelona and Real Madrid in January.
PSV rank sixth for cards in this competition with 20 yellows and one red on their tally so far. Arsenal further down with 12 yellows in eight outings.
But it's the referee appointment and the likely close nature of the contest which could well see the count going high.
The first player to consider is JOEY VEERMAN and his 6/1 price TO BE CARDED on Tuesday night.
The midfielder was a creative force last season but endured a Euro 2024 to forget for the Netherlands. He's recovered with 11 assists across 29 games in all competitions.
On the defensive side of things, he's been carded just three times but two of those have been in this competition and it isn't a surprise when we look into his fouls stats.
He's committed at least one foul in each of his last three European contests and had a huge total of three (with five successful tackles) in the home win over Liverpool.
Veerman isn't typically a 'card magnet' but his position on the pitch, combined with the official, could see him vulnerable to a booking.
And while PSV do typically prefer to attack down their right, I still think the value is there in the 6/1 for JURRIEN TIMBER TO BE CARDED given his performances.
Timber's committed at least one foul in four of his five Champions League starts with three coming in the away defeat to Inter.
He has seven yellows on his tally in the Premier League and one in this competition which takes away the worry about suspension at this point.
An opposition right-back has been booked in two of PSV's last three league games too.
With Manzano showing seven reds across 21 games this season, I'll also take the 50s on VEERMAN TO BE SENT OFF and the 80s on TIMBER TO BE SENT OFF with smaller stakes.
Team news
PSV remain without forwards Ricardo Pepi and Malik Tillman for Tuesday's visit of Arsenal.
Full-back Sergiño Dest is a long-term injury and hasn't featured at all this season, while former Gunners forward Lucas Pérez isn't registered to play after joining as a free agent.
Arteta can't call upon star forward Bukayo Saka still - he's with Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Martinelli on the sidelines.
Defender Takehiro Tomiyasu is also out long-term.
Predicted line-ups
PSV XI: Benitez; Ledezma, Flamingo, Boscagli, Junior; Veerman, Schouten, Saibari; Bakayoko, De Jong, Perisic.
Arsenal XI: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Partey, Odegaard; Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard.
Match facts
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their five home matches in European competitions against PSV (W3 D2), the most home games they've played against an opponent in European competition without ever losing.
- This will be the second time Arsenal have faced PSV in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, after being eliminated by the Dutch side in the Last 16 in 2006-07 (lost 0-1 away, drew 1-1 at home).
- Arsenal have only lost one of their last 14 games against Dutch sides in the UEFA Champions League (0-1 v PSV in 2007), although more than half of those matches have ended level (W5 D8 L1).
- Arsenal have faced Peter Bosz's PSV side twice previously in the UEFA Champions League, beating them 4-0 at the Emirates and drawing 1-1 away in the 2023-24 group stage.
- Arsenal have won each of their last four games in the UEFA Champions League, scoring 13 goals and only conceding twice in the process. The last time they had a five-game win streak in a single edition was in 2005-06 (5), which was when they registered their best ever finish in the competition (runners-up).
- Arsenal have been ahead on the scoreboard for 57% of their minutes played in the UEFA Champions League this season; the highest percentage of any side. Meanwhile, Mikel Arteta’s side have trailed for just 65 of their 770 minutes of match time in the competition this term (8%).
- PSV have allowed just nine opposition passes per defensive action in the UEFA Champions League this season; the second-fewest of any team, behind only Bayern Munich (8.2). Meanwhile, only Paris SG (30) have produced more shots following high turnovers than Peter Bosz’s side (25) in the competition this term.
- Arsenal have the lowest xG against per game average (0.73) in the UEFA Champions League this season, as well as allowing the fewest shots on target against (2.4). They’ve kept a clean sheet in 63% of their games in the competition this term (5/8), only once doing so in a higher percentage of their games in a single edition (77% - 10/13 in 2005-06).
- Ethan Nwaneri could become the second-youngest Arsenal player to appear in a UEFA Champions League knockout stage game (17y 348d on the day of this game), after Cesc Fàbregas v Bayern Munich in March 2005 (17y 309d). He could also become just the third English player to start in a knockout stage game in the competition while under 18, after Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden.
- PSV’s Luuk de Jong could make his 50th UEFA Champions League appearance in this game (currently on 49). He’d be just the fifth Dutch striker to reach this milestone in the competition, after Ruud van Nistelrooij (73), Patrick Kluivert (71), Roy Makaay (61) and Robin van Persie (59).
Odds correct at 1315 GMT (03/03/25)
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