The Sky Bet Championship campaign has entered the final ten games with everything to play for at both ends of the table.
Leeds and West Brom are gripped in a title race while Fulham are their main (and only realistic) threat to automatic promotion for the duo.
Sky Bet Championship promotion series
Scott Parker's side are expected to finish in the top-six with a comfortable gap, while Nottingham Forest and Brentford will both have one eye on taking that third-place and become the top seed in the play-offs.
We'll be updating our look at the promotion picture in England's second tier every two games - keeping a record of both our predictions and the promotion situation at various milestones.
Tom Carnduff provides the latest update as we enter March.
How does it currently stand?
West Brom's lead at the top has been cut to a single point following their surprise defeat at home to Wigan last time out.
Leeds capitalised with a 4-0 hammering of struggling Hull, extending their winning run to four. All of those games have also brought a clean sheet.
Fulham have kept pace with the top-two as they also registered back-to-back victories but the five-point gap remains and they need to find a two-game swing with just ten remaining.
Brentford's rough patch of form has continued with just one point gained from their last two fixtures. That came in a draw away at Cardiff, with Luton beating them in the game before.
Preston have suffered consecutive defeats but luckily for them, Bristol City have failed to capitalise. That form has allowed Blackburn to cut the gap to three points though given their two draws.
Swansea, Cardiff and Millwall remain a part of the chasing pack but they all didn't make the most of Preston's rough patch of form. Two victories for Swansea would have seen them overtake Preston in sixth.
Leeds have now become the 8/13 favourites to win the Sky Bet Championship title, with West Brom drifting out to 11/8 with the title sponsors.
What about averages?
The averages in the last feature in this series set Fulham's third-placed marker at 77 points. Now, following their two positive results, the bar for automatic promotion is set at 81.
West Brom's expected tally based on the points-per-game average has dropped down one to 88. For Leeds, they're expected to pick up three extra points and finish on 87.
Preston have seen the biggest hit with their expected tally dropping from 76 to 72. For Brentford, their figure has also dropped down from 76 but sit one better than North End at 73.
Those two expected tallies would have seen a team miss out on the play-offs altogether last season. However, as previously discussed, the tallies for those at the top are predicted to be on the lower-side of the scale for the 2019/20 campaign.
Nottingham Forest have also benefited from recent form with their expected tally being bumped up by a point. That would also see them finish fourth in the standings, giving them the potentially crucial play-off semi-final second leg at home.
Preston already suffering
Remaining fixtures v top-seven sides:
- West Brom: Brentford (A), Fulham (H)
- Leeds: Fulham (H)
- Fulham: Bristol City (A), Brentford (H), Leeds (A), Nottingham Forest (A), West Brom (A)
- Brentford: Fulham (A), West Brom (H), Preston (H)
- Nottingham Forest: Bristol City (H), Fulham (H), Preston (A)
- Preston: Nottingham Forest (H), Brentford (A), Bristol City (A)
- Bristol City: Fulham (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Preston (H)
Preston had the most difficult remaining fixtures out of the top-seven side and they've already suffered because of it.
Their last two games have seen them travel to West Brom and Fulham. Both games ended in 2-0 defeats with Darnell Fisher also seeing a red card at the Hawthorns.
The fortunate part for them is that those below have failed to capitalise and overtake them in sixth. Despite the defeats, they remain two points clear of seventh.
Alex Neil's side also now have six consecutive games without facing a team in the top-seven. If they can make the most of that and create a gap there won't be as much pressure going into the final four - which sees them face three teams all currently at the top-end of the table.
It is make or break time for Fulham with their next three fixtures seeing them come up against Bristol City, Brentford and then Leeds. On top of that, they've also got another West London derby, this one against QPR, to contend with three days after their trip to Elland Road.
That clash in West Yorkshire will also be Leeds' last fixture against those currently in the top-seven. A nice enough run-in for the current title favourites to get themselves over the line.
West Brom also have to face Fulham at home. Before that, they make their final visit to Griffin Park to take on Brentford.
Nottingham Forest's position in terms of the top-seven remains unchanged with Bristol City, Fulham and Preston all to come. The same can be said for City, who also have three top-seven fixtures left.
Who are the favourites?
Promotion - odds via Sky Bet
- West Brom - 1/25
- Leeds - 1/12
- Brentford - 11/8
- Fulham - 2/1
- Nottingham Forest - 9/2
- Preston - 15/2
- Blackburn - 16/1
- Bristol City - 33/1
Despite Leeds being the title favourites, West Brom's short 1/25 price remains on them to secure promotion.
There's not much more value in going for Marcelo Bielsa's side either - with the current team in second priced up at 1/12.
Even with their recent form, Brentford remain at 11/8 for promotion while Fulham find themselves as fourth favourites at 2/1 - despite being the team currently in third.
Preston provide the biggest price of those currently in the top-six at 15/2. That's even with their previous results and upcoming tough fixtures.
The most surprising part of the current odds is Bristol City being available at a huge 33/1. Blackburn, who sit a single point behind the Robins in the standings, are less than half of City's price.
Predicting the final outcome
The outcome has changed drastically based on the last two fixtures, but the main areas (e.g. top-two and play-offs) have remained the same.
Those recent results have also reinforced the point of just how unpredictable this division can be - see Luton's victory over Brentford.
However, with ten games to go, this is our updated prediction.
Sporting Life final table prediction:
- Leeds - 89pts
- West Brom - 88pts
- Fulham - 80pts
- Nottingham Forest - 77pts
- Brentford - 75pts
- Blackburn - 71pts
The biggest change sees Leeds take the title on the final day. The top-two fail to break the 90 point mark but still secure promotion by a comfortable margin.
The reason for this is the fact that the Whites have won with ease in their last two fixtures. Considering those were against sides in the bottom part of their division, and their remaining fixtures putting them up against similar quality teams, it would be fair to expect the results to continue.
Fulham also take third having being predicted to finish fifth in the last feature. Two positive results have shown that the Cottagers are firmly back on track.
Brentford drop to fifth given their recent form but it's enough to see them make the play-offs. As for Preston, their fixtures see them fall out of the top-six picture based on the results against West Brom and Fulham.
Odds correct at 1710 GMT (04/03/20)
