Sky Bet Championship: Who will be promoted to the Premier League? A look at averages, form and final fixtures
"I think there's 16 or 17 teams that are in with a realistic chance of getting into the play-offs," Derby coach Liam Rosenior told Sporting Life at the start of the season.
"It's so competitive because the level is so good," he continued. "I think it's improving year-on-year."
His analysis was near-correct. As we enter the final part of the Sky Bet Championship campaign, eleven teams can consider themselves as real contenders for promotion.
West Brom and Leeds look like they're starting to pull away from the play-off positions once again while nine others below have a shot at promotion.
Those who currently occupy the top-six have stuttered in recent weeks, swinging the door wide open for the mid-table sides to draw closer to the top-end of the division.
An exciting conclusion for the neutral but nail-biting worry for fans of those involved. The final part of the campaign is set to be essential viewing.
But who will reach the promised land of the Premier League? Tom Carnduff looks at the promotion picture.
How does it currently stand?
Nottingham Forest's victory over Leeds on February 8 saw the Whites' eleven-point lead over third place vanish as the chasing pack moved themselves level.
However, despite the opportunity presenting itself to overtake Marcelo Bielsa's men in the automatic promotion spots, those in the play-off positions have failed to take advantage. Preston being the only side to have chalked up a win over the past three games.
Leeds looked to be on the decline but they've turned things around. A good draw at Brentford, a performance that deserved victory, proved to be the catalyst in ensuring they found their feet again.
While those below have been scrapping to try and take that second spot, West Brom have continued to impress and now sit a huge nine points clear of third.
Slaven Bilic's men found themselves as the second fancies to Leeds in terms of the promotion betting for the majority of the season but now they take favouritism - and rightly so.
The expected goals will always favour Leeds but the points tally for the Baggies is now significant. 8/11 is the price on Slaven Bilic's men lifting the title at the end of the season, which looks good odds considering their relentless attitude.
What about the averages?
If the Championship continues to unfold at its current rate, the run-in will be a fairly relaxing experience for the current top-two.
What the trend of this season has taught us is that we should expect a low points total when the final whistle blows on gameday 46.
That by no means is a result of poorer promoted teams. The current contenders for the title will be more than capable of survival in the Premier League should they get over the line.
This season will be along similar lines to the 2012/13 campaign. Cardiff won the league that year with 87 points while Hull were automatically promoted with a total of 79.
Watford led the play-off pack with a total of 77 while Leicester snuck into the top-six with a small total of 68. For comparison, 68 points would have resulted in a team finishing ninth last season - a whole six points adrift of the play-offs.
What does the average mean for the current top-two? Well, if we carry on at the way it's been going, West Brom could reach the Premier League with just four wins from their final 12 games. For Leeds, the win tally stands at five with a draw too.
The run-in favours Leeds
Remaining fixtures v top-seven sides:
- West Brom: Preston (H), Brentford (A), Fulham (H)
- Leeds: Fulham (H)
- Fulham: Preston (H), Bristol City (A), Brentford (H), Leeds (A), Nottingham Forest (A), West Brom (A)
- Brentford: Fulham (A), West Brom (H), Preston (H)
- Nottingham Forest: Bristol City (H), Fulham (H), Preston (A)
- Preston: West Brom (A), Fulham (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Brentford (A), Bristol City (A)
- Bristol City: Fulham (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Preston (H)
Not only do the current averages favour Leeds but so too does the final run-in.
Bielsa's boys only have to play one other team in the current top-seven - that being a home fixture against Fulham.
The Cottagers have a remarkably tough run to the finish line. They still have to play every other team in the top-six, with only two of those games coming at home.
It's far from ideal for a team who are currently on a three-game winless run, which includes a huge 3-0 home defeat to Barnsley last time out at Craven Cottage.
Their season hits a make-or-break point in the first-half of March. Scott Parker's side face Preston, Bristol City, Brentford and Leeds in four consecutive fixtures. A failure to win any of those games could see them drop out of the top-six altogether.
Despite that, the 7/2 price on Fulham to finish outside of the top-six this season shows that they are fancied for a shot at promotion.
As discovered above, West Brom could win one-third of their final fixtures and still reach the Premier League. The fact that two of their three 'big games' remaining are at home makes their case for the title even stronger.
In the race for the play-offs, Preston have been dealt a rough hand with four of their final top-seven fixtures being away from home. North End are the best home side in the division but their showings on the road leave them sitting 12th in the away standings.
Even with that run-in, Preston are an odds-against 11/10 price for finishing outside of the play-off positions. That price could get shorter though with seven of their final 12 away from home.
So while the averages will obviously favour those currently in the play-off places, the run-in could completely change the picture. That's good news for the likes of Blackburn, Swansea and Cardiff who sit five points adrift but still have a chance of the top-six.
A case for the outsiders
Those final fixtures, combined with the close nature of the division this season, opens the play-off picture up for an outsider to break in as the campaign reaches its conclusion.
Based on the run-in, it could be argued that Preston and Fulham are at the biggest risk of dropping out of the top-six. One spot will definitely be up for grabs, as is always the case, but all four are prone given how four points separates third and seventh.
It's 11/1 that both Fulham and Preston finish outside the top-six this season. A price that could go down as the results come in.
The team that stands out from the chasing pack in this case is Blackburn. Tony Mowbray's men briefly held sixth spot when they took the lead at Brentford last time out.
A narrow defeat to Fulham at the beginning of February is the only time that Rovers have lost in their last eight fixtures. That run has included three wins by two-goal margins or greater - a 5-0 hammering of Sheffield Wednesday being the stand-out performance.
Their emergence has gone under-the-radar, even when they broke into the play-off positions, and they're likely to go unnoticed until the very end as they continue to pick up results.
Blackburn have three top-seven teams to play. The positive? All of those games are at home which further strengthen their top-six credentials. Even with Leeds and West Brom visiting, they'll hold some confidence that they can pick up points against the very best on current form.
Rovers' 9/4 price on finishing in the top-six makes them more fancied than Bristol City, Millwall, Cardiff and Swansea. Their fixtures are a perfect 50-50 mix between home and away, putting more importance on their games against those mentioned above.
Mowbray's side also face Swansea at home and travel to both Cardiff and Millwall. Positive results in those fixtures will fire them further into contention.
Predicting the final outcome
The lower points tally this season highlights just how unpredictable the Championship has been.
It's hard enough to predict results on a week-by-week basis, let alone trying to work out how the standings will look in 12 games' time.
However, based on the factors outlined above, a 'first draft' prediction (that will inevitably change as the weeks progress) can be made.
Sporting Life final table prediction:
- West Brom - 92pts
- Leeds - 85pts
- Brentford - 79pts
- Nottingham Forest - 77pts
- Fulham - 74pts
- Blackburn - 73pts
Fulham's tough run will still see them make the play-offs but they will have to settle for fifth. Not necessarily a bad thing considering that's where Aston Villa finished at the end of the 2018/19 season.
Blackburn sneak in as they capitalise on their home games, while also picking up points against Cardiff and Millwall. That sets up a play-off tie against Brentford, who finish third.
Nottingham Forest move up one space to fifth. Their remaining 'big fixtures' are winnable and Sabri Lamouchi's side also have 50% of their final games at home.
Leeds finally return to the Premier League with a margin of six points over Brentford. They face Derby in the penultimate game of the season, potentially presenting the perfect opportunity for revenge for last season's play-off defeat.
West Brom also end up as deserved winners of the 2019/20 Sky Bet Championship title - earning an extra victory than predicted by their expected points tally.
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (24/02/20)
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