Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt Liverpool win to nil in 90 minutes at 17/10 (William Hill)
BuildABet @ 13/2
- Liverpool to qualify
- Lucas Bergvall to be carded
- Cody Gakpo to score anytime
All in 90 minutes
"I always win things in my second year."
Ange Postecoglou's infamous September quote basically promising a trophy to a fanbase starved of success could well yet deliver.
The fact Spurs are in a semi-final of a domestic cup competition, holding a 1-0 aggregate lead over the current Premier League title favourites not only provides them with a great opportunity to win silverware, but it also could be a big reason the Australian is still in a job.
No matter the result on Thursday, he will likely be in the job for the remainder of the campaign, and the Spurs hierarchy, while leaving it late, have provided him with a couple of fresh players to re-energise a tired team.
Their job is simple: avoid defeat at Anfield. Obviously they could lose by one goal and advance on penalties, but away from home that would be a tall order.
The problem is they face the best team in the country. Liverpool, the Carabao Cup holders, are purring at the moment, fresh off a dominant win against high-flying Bournemouth.
What are the best bets?
The crowd will be bang up for this one, the Reds enjoy being chasers and Tottenham remain a vulnerable defensive team.
The first leg came at an odd time for Liverpool, who looked tired after a relentless festive period, and it resulted in their worst attacking display of the season (1.13 xGF) despite a makeshift Spurs backline.
Well rested after rotation last week in the Champions League, and on a high after a good win away at a good team, they'll fancy their chances of getting the job done.
The bookies do too, unsurprisingly, pricing the Reds at 2/9 to win in 90 minutes and 7/20 to qualify, implying probabilities of 82% for a 90-minute success and 74% to advance.
The small spanner in the works is Spurs' additions, with centre-back Kevin Danso available to play here alongside the now-fit-again Micky van de Ven, and forward Mathys Tel also a possible debutant.
However, while their defence has been a big talking point over the last few months, it's perhaps gone under the radar that their attack has hit a brick wall.
Across their last 10 matches against Premier League opponents in either the league or Carabao Cup, Spurs have averaged just 1.06 xGF per game, with that figure dropping to 0.92 xGF when travelling.
In their 16 matches prior to this stretch, Postecoglou's side were averaging 1.95 xGF per game overall against top flight teams and 2.01 away from home.
It's a problem, big enough for me to back LIVERPOOL WIN TO NIL at 17/10 here.
Liverpool's defence is at it's best when both Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate are fit. It's an obvious assessment, but it really is night and day.
When the pair have played together this season, Liverpool have kept 12 clean sheets in 22 matches across the Premier League and Champions League, conceding just 13 goals. That's a 55% clean sheet ratio and a goals conceded per game of just 0.59.
Without one of them, they have just three clean sheets in nine (33%) and conceded 12 goals (1.33 per game).
Both are fit to start here and have registered two clean sheets in their last three outings together, only failing to keep three straight thanks to a late consolation from Ipswich.
The jump from 2/9 to 17/10 looks too big given the hosts defensive record and the attacking struggles of the visitors. Game state dictates the Reds be cautious defensively too, especially for the first half, as they can't really afford to go two goals down on aggregate.
Expect another controlled performance from Slot's men
Team news
Trent Alexander-Arnold is out for this one having picked up an injury at the weekend, and he joins Joe Gomez as the only two injured players for the Reds as both Diogo Jota and Curtis Jones are now available.
Conor Bradley should come in at right back in what will likely be the only change from the weekend.
Tottenham have Micky van de Ven fit and available and he should come back in here having been rested at the weekend, and we could also see new signing Kevin Danso partner him at the heart of defence after Radu Dragusin was the latest Spurs player to pick up a serious injury.
This game comes too soon for all of Destiny Udogie, Guglielmo Vicario, Brennan Johnson, Wilson Odobert and Timo Werner who should be fit in the next week or so, but Cristian Romero and Dominic Solanke will have to wait longer to return.
New signing Mathys Tel should be involved in some capacity here after joining from Bayern Munich on transfer deadline day.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool: Alisson; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Salah, Diaz, Gakpo
Tottenham: Kinsky; Pedro Porro, Van de Ven, Danso, Spence; Bergvall, Bissouma, Bentancur; Kulusevski, Richarlison, Son
Match facts
- Liverpool have progressed to the final on two of the last three occasions they’ve lost the first leg of a League Cup semi-final, doing so against Crystal Palace in 2000-01 and Sheffield United in 2002-03.
- Tottenham have been eliminated three of the last five times they’ve won the first leg of a League Cup semi-final, most recently against Chelsea in 2018-19. No side has been eliminated at this stage of the competition having won the first leg more (Ipswich Town also three).
- Liverpool have lost just one of their last 27 home games against Tottenham in all competitions (W19 D7), and are unbeaten in 14 (W10 D4) since a 2-0 loss in May 2011.
- Tottenham are looking to beat Liverpool twice in the same season for the first time since 2010-11, when they did the double over them in the Premier League.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last nine home games in the League Cup (W4 D5), winning the last four in a row by an aggregate score of 15-4.
- Tottenham haven’t eliminated the holders of the League Cup since 2007-08, when they beat Chelsea 2-1 in the final in what remains their last major trophy win.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been involved in nine goals in his last six appearances against Tottenham in all competitions, scoring six and assisting three.
- Lucas Bergvall scored Tottenham’s winner in the first leg – the last Spurs player to score in both legs of a League Cup semi-final was Roman Pavlyuchenko (2008-09).
Odds correct at 1050 GMT (05/02/25)
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