Burnley v Norwich tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Burnley to win at 10/11 (Mansion Bet, Betfred)
Two winless teams do battle at Turf Moor on Saturday in what is likely to be a game that many people forget about or overlook - unless you are a fan of either team that is.
Burnley and Norwich start the weekend second from bottom and rock bottom respectively, but only one of those teams deserves to be in the relegation zone at this stage - and that is Norwich.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Burnley 5/6 | Draw 13/5 | Norwich 16/5
Now you may say; "but Norwich have had an extremely tough schedule to open the season so they can be forgiven for such a start".
While that is true - Norwich having the toughest opening six fixtures based on the average forecast position of opponent (7.3) - it is worth noting that Burnley have had a similarly difficult start (avg forecast position of opponents 7.5).
When we factor that in and look at the pairs underlying numbers, the selection of a BURNLEY WIN starts to make a lot of sense.
The Clarets have averaged 1.33 xGF and 1.79 xGA per game through six matches, a process that isn't bad for a team expected to be in a relegation battle who has played just one team forecast to finish in the bottom half this season.
As for Norwich, they have averaged 0.95 xGF and 2.32 xGA per game through six matches. A stark contrast - plus they have played a fellow relegation contender and been blown out (xG: NOR 0.75 - 2.92 WAT).
So, with similar schedules, Burnley's expected goal difference (xGD) per game of -0.46 is far superior to Norwich's -1.32. Over twice as good. This means that Norwich have been comfortably inferior in their matches this term, while Burnley have been competative.
Taking things a step further, at Turf Moor - where Burnley have played Brighton, Leeds and Arsenal - Sean Dyche's side boast a positive xG process, meaning that on average they are creating more and better chances than their opponents when playing at home.
While this is a more winnable game for Norwich than their away games to date (Manchester City, Arsenal, Everton), we said that same thing before they hosted Watford, that that game was a great opportunity to get off the mark.
I think it will be a major struggle for the Canaries at Turf Moor, and the stats back up that Burnley are the superior of the two teams, so I am happy to back a BURNLEY WIN at a shade of odds on.
It won't be pretty, but I think it will be effective, and Burnley should pick up their first win of the season on Saturday.
Burnley v Norwich best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Burnley to win at 10/11 (Mansion Bet, Betfred)
Score prediction: Burnley 2-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1645 BST (30/09/21)
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