Burnley host Everton in what is a massive match-up at the bottom of the Premier League table. Liam Kelly picks out his best bet for the game at Turf Moor, expecting a fiery affair.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts 50+ booking points in the match at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Possibly the most important game in regards to Premier League safety so far this season.
Burnley enter the match-up in 19th place in the table, four points behind 17th-placed Everton, who sit just three points ahead of Watford and the last relegation spot.
Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Burnley 6/4 | Draw 11/5 | Everton 19/10
In such a vital match-up, it's difficult to parse any value from the main markets. Their position in the table makes it obvious that neither side are trustworthy from a betting perspective.
Everton's away woes are well-documented, scoring 11 and conceding 30 in gaining only six points in 14 road games all season. An expected goal difference (xGD) of -13.6 on their travels confirm their deep-rooted struggles.
However, would you back Burnley to take advantage of that weakness?
After all, Sean Dyche's side have won just two games at home this term, scoring only 10 goals at Turf Moor in the league.
The sheer scale of the game makes the under/over goals markets volatile, too.
If either team score first, the attacking intent of the other will change drastically. A must-win for both teams can just as easily result in a stalemate as a game chock-full of goals.
Per Infogol probabilities, Burnley's chances of safety rise to 63% with a win. If Everton claim all three points, Frank Lampard's team have an 86% chance of survival.
With so much on the line, and so much uncertainty, it's best to stick with what we do know when it comes to betting on this fixture. We know that it will be a fiery affair.
Both Burnley and Everton rank in the top half of Premier League teams in total yellow cards this season, despite playing fewer games than almost every team. They average 1.82 and 2.03 per game respectively.
Granted that is lower than the 50+ BOOKING POINTS IN THE MATCH bet that is selected, but the magnitude of the game should be taken into account. As should the referee.
Mike Dean will take charge here, probably more so than people would like. Although Dean has averaged 3.26 yellow cards per game this season (and handed out a total of two reds), his reputation precedes him.
On what will be a wet night in front of a raucous home crowd, backing booking points is the way to go in a huge game at the bottom of the table.
Burnley v Everton best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts 50+ booking points in the match at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (05/04/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
