Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Arsenal to win to nil at 9/4 (bet365, Sky Bet)
1pt Carlos Baleba to be carded at 3/1 (Paddy Power)
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 17/4 | Draw 100/30 | Away 4/7
Brighton may be unbeaten in 14 at the Amex but the Seagull’s have only won two of their last eight and have failed to score in three of those.
Despite their faltering form, European qualification is still within Roberto De Zerbi’s side's grasp as they sit two points behind West Ham in seventh having played a game less.
Saturday’s hosts last two Premier League victories have come via a one goal margin against two of the bottom four, against the top four, they have not fared so well.
In five games against the big boys, Brighton have only picked up one point, shipping 14 goals in the process.
This won’t make for good reading ahead of their match with title chasing Arsenal, who lead the way for away wins (9), goals scored (34) and fewest conceded (11).
What are the best bets?
ARSENAL have adopted a pragmatic approach recently. Arteta played for a point at the Etihad then cruised to a 2-0 against Luton in midweek limiting both sides to a solitary shot on target in each game.
After a swashbuckling start to the year, the Gunners last issued a battering at Bramall Lane. Two of their three victories since have been TO NIL and that is the bet on the south coast.
Gone are the free-scoring Brighton of old. The Seagulls lacked cutting edge against Brentford and have only scored three times for an xG of 5.70 across their last six games in all competitions.
Injuries limiting attacking options may be partly to blame but I am not sure the hosts will be able to penetrate this stubborn Arsenal backline.
CARLOS BALEBA was eyed as a replacement for Moises Caicedo and the Cameroonian certainly matches the Chelsea export for defesive output.
Baleba is not afraid to get stuck in, averaging 1.6 tackles and 1.4 fouls a game picking up five cards in just 946 minutes of top flight action this term.
With a cards per 90 average of 0.48, the 3/1 about him TO BE CARDED looks value on Saturday.
BuildABet @ 10/1
- Arsenal to win
- Carlos Baleba to be carded
- Martin Odegaard 3+ shots
Only Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus trump Martin Odegaard for shots per game this term (2.1), Arsenal’s skipper has had at least three in 12 of his appearances. Combining him to hit this line with an Arsenal win and a Baleba card provides interest here.
Team news
De Zerbi has not named the same XI for two games in a row this campaign making 114 changes in total so expect him to shuffle his deck here.
Jack Hinshelwood was in the away pen for the draw at Brighton and he will be in the stands for this clash as he is ruled out with an ankle injury. Solly March, Billy Gilmour, James Milner and Kaoru Mitoma are also unavailable for the hosts.
Evan Ferguson also missed the match in midweek and will be assessed ahead of Saturday evenings game. The Irishman may have to settle for a spot on the bench with ex-Gunner Danny Welbeck expected to lead the line.
Joao Pedro missed out of both of his sides two matchday squads but with him nearing a return, he could start at the expense of Adam Lallana.
As for Arsenal, Bukayo Saka was the headline exclusion in his side's win over Luton on Wednesday. Gabriel Jesus, Declan Rice, Gabriel Martinelli and Jorginho were also rested but all five could return to the XI on Saturday.
Bayern Munich come to the Emirates on Tuesday though, so Mikel Arteta may hold some of his big hitters back for then.
Predicted line-ups
Brighton: Verbruggen; Lamptey, Dunk, Van Hecke, Estupinan; Baleba, Gross; Adingra, Pedro, Enciso; Welbeck
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior; Odegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli
Match facts
- Having won two of their first three Premier League home games against Arsenal (D1), Brighton have now lost two of their last three against them at the Amex (D1).
- Arsenal are looking to complete the Premier League double over Brighton for the second time, previously doing so in the 2020-21 campaign.
- Since losing 3-1 to West Ham United in August, Brighton are unbeaten in their last 12 home Premier League matches (W6 D6), their longest unbeaten run at the Amex in the competition.
- Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four away Premier League matches – only once in their league history have they kept five in a row, doing so between February and April 1997.
- Brighton have won just three of their 18 Premier League games kicking off at 17:30 on a Saturday (D7 L8), however one of those wins did come in their most recent such fixture, beating Newcastle 3-1 in September last year. Meanwhile, three of Arsenal’s last four away Premier League defeats have come in games kicking off at 17:30 on a Saturday.
- Since the turn of the year, Arsenal haven’t trailed for a single minute in any of their five away Premier League games, conceding the fewest goals (1), allowing the lowest xG against (2.26) and facing the fewest shots on target (5) on the road of any side in 2024.
- Arsenal have lost just one of their last nine trips to the South Coast in the Premier League (W6 D2), a 1-0 loss at Southampton in April 2022, winning three of their last four such games (D1). Meanwhile, Brighton have lost just one of their last eight home league matches against London based sides (W5 D2), winning each of their last three in a row.
- Brighton forward Danny Welbeck has scored in four of his last five starts against former side Arsenal in all competitions (4 goals), although each of his last three strikes against the Gunners have come at the Emirates.
- Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard has had a hand in four goals across his six Premier League appearances against Brighton (2 goals, 2 assists), scoring and assisting in the Gunners’ 4-2 win at the Amex last season.
- Arsenal’s David Raya could become the first Spanish keeper to keep a clean sheet in five consecutive away Premier League starts and the ninth different keeper to do so overall in the competition (Ederson the last to do so between February-April 2022).
Odds correct at 1435 BST (04/04/24)
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