Jake Pearson previews the Premier League clash between Brighton and Norwich, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt on the DRAW at 17/5 (Spread Ex)
After their impressive early-season exploits, Brighton have struggled for results over the last couple of months and sit joint bottom of the form table (last six matches), alongside Norwich.
Both sides have failed to pick up a single point from their last 18 available, with the Seagulls managing just one goal since mid-December – Norwich have scored four.
Both teams are on a run of six successive defeats, and if there is one glimmer of hope coming into this fixture, it is that at least one of these two will snap that streak here.
Norwich are now eight points adrift of safety, a gap that looks unassailable for Dean Smith’s men, while Brighton are 11 points clear of the drop thanks to a good first half of the season.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Brighton 4/9 | Draw 16/5 | Norwich 7/1
Given the present form of both teams, siding with Brighton at 4/9 is not recommended, though neither is opposing them with a Norwich victory, even at as big as 8/1 – the Canaries have the second-worst away record in the division.
At a top price of 17/5 (4.4) though, the DRAW does stand out.
Only Crystal Palace have seen more matches end level than Brighton (12) this season, with five of their fixtures at the Amex also seeing the spoils shared.
Matches involving the Seagulls are rarely one-sided either, with four of Brighton’s seven victories this season coming by a single-goal margin – not one win coming by a margin of more than two.
This is heavily reflected in their ‘process’ – the rate at which they create and concede chances.
Brighton have generated opportunities equating to 37.7 xGF (expected goals for) this season, whilst their xGA (expected goals against) total is also 37.7, meaning they concede chances at the same rate as they create them.
Only two sides in the division have scored fewer goals than Brighton this term, one being Norwich, who have registered the fewest, and a low-scoring affair increases the chances of a stalemate.
Brighton v Norwich best bet and score prediction
- 1pt on the DRAW at 17/5 (Spread Ex)
Score prediction: Brighton 0-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1410 GMT (31/03/22)
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