Brighton v Aston Villa free betting tips: Best bets and Premier League preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Ross Barkley to score anytime at 4/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Brighton v Aston Villa
- 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 13/8 | Draw 23/10 | Away 6/4
Will the real Aston Villa please stand up?
In their last five matches Dean Smith’s side have gone lose, win, lose, win, lose, win.
Victories over Newcastle, Southampton and Arsenal have been interlaced with defeats to Manchester City, Burnley and West Ham. There doesn’t seem to be any sort of pattern with Villa. Some games they win and some games they lose.
Contrast that with Brighton. Before their 1-1 draw with Burnley in their last Premier League match, only Manchester City had collected more points from their previous four games than the Seagulls.
Is a 7/4 upset on the cards then? I wouldn’t rule it out, but at the same time I’m not banking on it. I just can’t quite work Aston Villa out.
In their 3-2 loss to Burnley for example, Villa won the expected goals (xG) battle 2.98 to 0.79 according to Infogol. Yet in their 1-0 win over Southampton, the Saints dominated and were up 2.51 to 0.77.
You can use expected goals to overrule results when looking for trends. A tipster could argue that an out-of-form team is due a result after a good run in the xG model.
But with Villa it remains impossible. They’ve been yo-yoing since January in both expected and actual results.
If we’re avoiding the outrights then where do we turn to?
I particularly like Ross Barkley’s odds as an anytime goalscorer at 4/1 with Bet 365. The midfielder has an average expected goals per match of 0.3. If we were to back him at those odds for the next three Villa games and he keeps his form, mathematically we’d be highly likely to come out with a profit.
I think Barkley scores in this game. Back as a regular starter, the former England international found the net against Southampton three games ago.
The last five goals Brighton have conceded in the league have all been against midfielders, with Johann Berg Gudmundsson of Burnley, Phil Foden of Manchester City and Ruben Neves and Romain Saiss of Wolves all finding a way past Robert Sanchez.
I believe Potter’s side will likely double up on Jack Grealish, just as West Ham did so effectively in their 3-1 win at Villa Park last week. If that's the case, then Barkley is going to have a lot more time on the ball.
Also, check the team sheets an hour before kick-off for Anwar El Ghazi. I’m expecting the midfielder to be named amongst the substitutes having been benched during Villa’s win over Arsenal last time out.
If he starts though I’d definitely urge you to back him having 2+ shots on target at 7/4 with Sky Bet. The former Ajax man averages 2.4 shots on target in his Premier League games this season. By putting him odds against, the bookies have made a real oversight.
Taking on Brighton’s defenders I can see him getting at least three goal-bound shots at odds of 5/1. Have a glance at the teams as soon as possible before his price shortens.
Score Prediction: Brighton 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Brighton v Aston Villa best bets
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (11/02/21)
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