Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Ivan Toney to commit 2+ fouls at evens (Sky Bet)
1pts Ivan Toney to commit 3+ fouls at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Ivan Toney to commit 4+ fouls at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
A run of only one win in eight games is to blame for Brentford’s slump towards the relegation zone but Ivan Toney is back from his eight-month suspension to try and help the Bees to safety.
With Saturday’s opponents Nottingham Forest only a point ahead of Thomas Frank’s side, the importance of this match cannot be understated.
Nuno Espirito Santo has overseen an uptick in results with Forest unbeaten in four, but they did need a extra time in their FA Cup third-round replay to eventually labour past Sky Bet League One side Blackpool in midweek.
A lengthy list of absentees could be the visitors' downfall, especially given that in-form midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White is now also ruled out.
What are the best bets?
Thomas Frank has confirmed IVAN TONEY will start and captain the side and I expect him to be heavily involved.
In the Premier League last season, he scored 20 goals, picked up nine cards and committed the fifth-most fouls (52). He only kept himself out of trouble in three of the 33 games he started.
The frontman committed 2+ FOULS on 22 occasions, the price of evens for him to hit that number against Forest certainly appeals and I think it's also worth looking at his higher foul lines.
He committed 3+ FOULS in 40% of his games in 22/23 making 3/1 obvious value, and since Brentford gained promotion the England striker has committed 4+ FOULS in 9% of his starts so a small punt at 9/1 looks worthwhile as well.
BuildABet @ 45/1
- Ivan Toney to score anytime
- Ivan Toney to commit 4+ fouls
- Ivan Toney to be shown a card
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Since making the switch from Peterborough in 2020, Toney has scored 68 goals in 124 appearances. With the captain's armband on after eight months away, it feels like he could be destined to score.
Team news
Toney is back available following an eight-month ban and given Brentford’s shortcomings in attack, he will make an immediate return for the hosts partnering Neal Maupay upfront. Bryan Mbeumo (ankle), Kevin Schade (groin) and Yoane Wissa (AFCON) are unavailable.
Sergio Reguilon has joined on-loan from Tottenham and could make his debut here. Gibbs-White is out for two weeks with an abdominal injury joining a host of Forest players in the treatment room; Taiwo Awoniyi, Anthony Elanga, Felipe and Divock Origi are all injured.
Ola Aina, Serge Aurier, Ibrahim Sangare, Willy Boly, Cheikhou Kouyate and Moussa Niakhate are away at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Murillo and Callum Hudson-Odoi were forced off against Blackpool on Wednesday but should start.
Predicted line-ups
Brentford: Flekken; Collins, Ajer, Mee; Roerslev, Janelt, Jensen, Baptiste, Reguilon; Toney, Maupay.
Nottingham Forest: Turner; Montiel, Omobamidele, Murillo, Toffolo; Danilo, Yates; Yates, Dominguez, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.
Match facts
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last five league meetings with Nottingham Forest (W2 D3) since a 1-0 home loss in January 2020 in the Championship.
- Nottingham Forest lost 2-1 in this exact fixture last season – only twice before have they lost consecutive league visits to Brentford, doing so in April 1949 and August 2016.
- Since their return to the Premier League last season, Nottingham Forest have conceded 29 goals in 12 away league games against London sides, an average of 2.4 per game. They lost 5-0 against Fulham on their last visit to the capital.
- Brentford have lost seven of their last eight Premier League games (W1), including each of their last five in a row. The Bees last suffered a longer league losing run in March 1993 in the second tier (7), while only in April 1947 have they ever endured a longer such run in the top-flight (7).
- Nottingham Forest have won their last two Premier League games, last winning three in a row in the division in May 1999. Away from home, the Tricky Trees could win successive top-flight outings for the first time since April 1995 under Frank Clark (run of 4).
- Brentford have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League this season (20). Indeed, no side has lost more games than the Bees after scoring first this term (4), while they’re also one of six teams yet to win when conceding first.
- Only Arsenal (9) have scored more headed goals in the Premier League this season than Nottingham Forest, with their eight headed strikes accounting for a league-high 33% of their overall goals. Meanwhile, Brentford (10) have conceded more headed goals than any other side this term.
- Brentford’s Ivan Toney could make his return to the side following his ban from last season. He’s scored in all three of his league games against Nottingham Forest, while he’s also scored in each of his last three Premier League games at the Gtech Community Stadium.
- Anthony Elanga has been involved in 42% of Nottingham Forest’s 24 Premier League goals this season (10– 4 goals, 6 assists), with only three players being involved in a higher share for their side.
- Nottingham Forest won 3-1 at Newcastle in Nuno Espírito Santo’s first away league game in charge. He could be the fourth Forest manager to win his first two top-flight games on the road, after Frank Clark (1994), Billy Walker (1957) and Fred Earp (1909).
Odds correct 1045 GMT (19/01/24)
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