Brentford host Liverpool in the Premier League's Saturday evening match, and Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts 7+ Liverpool Corners at Evens (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Liverpool -3 Corners on the three-way handicap at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
A 1-0 defeat to Brighton two weeks back looked to have put a slight dent in the ongoing feel-good saga that is Brentford’s first season in the Premier League, but even that result was a harsh one, the Seagulls scoring in the 90th minute with their only shot on target of the game.
It would have been easy for Thomas Frank’s men to feel sorry for themselves afterwards, but they bounced back in terrific fashion with an impressive 2-0 victory over Wolves last weekend, creating better chances than their opponents and showing good resolve after Shandon Baptiste was shown a red card with 26 minutes left to play.
They followed that up with a 7-0 drubbing of Oldham in the Carabao Cup in midweek and have already begun to look like an established Premier League side; not a whiff of one-season wonder about them (though that statement could definitely come back to haunt).
The biggest issue Brentford face this weekend however, is their opponents.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Brentford 6/1 | Draw 7/2 | Liverpool 4/9
Liverpool have been relentless this season, banishing the memories of last season and picking up where they left off at the end of their Premier League winning campaign of 2019/20.
The Reds currently sit joint-top of the league on 13 points, have created the most chances in the division (averaging 3.2 Expected Goals per game) and have conceded just one goal, against the European champions Chelsea.
Liverpool have been blowing away their opposition of late, something Crystal Palace and most recently Norwich in the Carabao Cup can attest to, Jurgen Klopp’s men winning both games by three goals to nil, and this will be a real test of Brentford’s defensive solidity.
The bookmakers give Liverpool a 70% chance of victory in this game, and as good as Brentford have been this season, it is difficult to argue with that assessment.
That does not mean there isn’t value to be found in this game though, and in the corner markets, there does seem to have been a couple of oversights.
As a general rule, using the corner spreads to price up the corner markets is the best way to go about things, and that can often reveal price anomalies, but on this occasion there is no real need as the lines used look a little out.
Liverpool have been unstoppable in terms of corners won this season. They have won 52 corners in their five Premier League matches. Next on the list is Manchester City with 47, but we have to go down to 37 to find the next team; Manchester United.
It is not just in the Premier League that Liverpool are posting these ridiculous numbers either. Against AC Milan in the Champions League they won an astounding 15 corners, while against Norwich in midweek they were awarded eight.
The Reds’ direct, pepper-the-goal approach means they constantly top the table in terms of corners won, and a best price of even money for 7+ LIVERPOOL CORNERS looks like an outlier, particularly considering there hasn’t been a game this season where they have dipped below eight corners, let alone seven.
Given Liverpool’s dominance in this area then, it is also worth looking at the corner handicap market, and LIVERPOOL -3 CORNERS is another good bet at a price of 11/10.
Brentford have been awarded fewer corners than any other side in the Premier League this season, averaging 2.4 per game.
Couple that with Liverpool’s propensity for corners, as well as the fact that only Aston Villa and Manchester City have conceded fewer corner kicks than the Reds this term, and three doesn’t look a big handicap to overcome.
It’s a head start that Liverpool have overcome in each of their five matches so far this season, while Brentford have only actually won more corners than their opponents on one occasion.
Brentford v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts 7+ Liverpool Corners at Evens (Sky Bet)
- 1.5pts Liverpool -3 Corners on the three-way handicap at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brentford 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (22/09/21)
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