Chelsea beat Southampton to go top
Our preview of Brentford v Chelsea with best bets

Brentford v Chelsea tips: Premier League best bets and preview


Chelsea head to Brentford for a west London derby on Saturday evening. Jake Osgathorpe has two best bets - he is expecting goals.


Football betting tips: Premier League

1.5pts Both Teams to Score at 6/5 (Mansion Bet)

0.5pts Christian Norgaard and Antonio Rudiger both to be carded at 28/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

"Newcastle have already made a mess of things!" | Premier League best bets

Brentford have made an excellent start to their maiden Premier League campaign, and come into this game having collected seven points from a run of games against Wolves, West Ham and Liverpool.

League leaders Chelsea are in town though, and are sure to provide another stiff test for Thomas Frank's Bees, but the hosts can sting the Blues on Saturday.


Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday

TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League

Brentford 21/4 | Draw 14/5 | Chelsea 4/7

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Brentford started the season with a defence-first mindset, keeping things tight and being difficult to break down. That in turn led to them creating very little in attack, with their process through four matches reading 0.93 xGF and 0.71 xGA per game.

However, in their last three matches they have taken the handbrake off in attack, leading to more chances being created - but also conceded.

In matches against Wolves, Liverpool and West Ham, the Bees have averaged 2.22 xGF and 1.43 xGA per game. Their games have featured chances galore.

That approach shouldn't change in this game against a Chelsea team who have looked more vulnerable this season than last.

WHAT IS EXPECTED GOALS? USE xG TO INCREASE PROFITS IN FOOTBALL BETTING

The Blues sit top of the table through seven games, and deserve an immense amount of credit for that given the schedule they have faced.

Thomas Tuchel's side have already faced Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham away from home, and hosted Manchester City, so to be at the head of the Premier League is a feat.

However, they have been fortunate with results, looking more defensively vulnerable than the three goals allowed would suggest.

Chelsea have allowed 9.68 xGA - an average of 1.38 per game - so have been the beneficiaries of poor finishing and good goalkeeping/defending.

If they continue to concede chances at the same rate, they will start to concede more frequently, and their display against Southampton last time out was another example of them looking more vulnerable than last term (xG: CHE 3.50 - 1.49 SOU).

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Fortunately for Chelsea, their attack has improved with the arrival of Romelu Lukaku. The Blues have averaged 1.78 xGF per game thus far, so will create a fair few opportunities against this Brentford defence that has looked more susceptible thanks to a more attack-minded approach.

All in all, I am expecting this to be an entertaining game, and BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE looks the standout bet in the traditional markets.

It is surprising to see that BTTS is the outsider in the market, and by some margin, given the stats discussed. Both sides look good in attack, but have been conceding chances.

A longshot fancy comes in the player cards market, where I am happy to throw a few darts in the hope of landing a big priced double.

This is a London derby, and Brentford's ability to win fouls and cards caught my - especially with Anthony Taylor overseeing proceedings.

Taylor has averaged 4.2 cards per game in all competitions this term, while Brentford have received 13 in seven games with their opponents given 15 yellows in that time.

The Bees are an awkward side to contend with, and the potential match-up between Ivan Toney and Antonio Rudiger caught my eye along with Brentford's midfielder Christian Norgaard. NORGAARD AND RUDIGER BOTH TO BE SHOWN A CARD looks worth some shrapnel.

Norgaard is averaging 1.7 fouls per 95 minutes and 0.43 yellows per 95, and while Rudiger might not be as foul-prone, he has collected two cautions from six fouls - suggesting that when he does commit a foul, it is a cynical one.

Toney is a tough customer to deal with, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Rudiger pull him or Bryan Mbuemo down on a fast break or retaliate after being roughed up by the Englishman.


Brentford v Chelsea best bets and score prediction

  • 1.5pts Both Teams to Score at 6/5 (Mansion Bet)
  • 0.5pts Christian Norgaard and Antonio Rudiger both to be carded at 28/1 (bet365)

Score prediction: Brentford 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1200 BST (15/10/21)

Brentford manage Thomas Frank
ALSO READ: Can Frank's Bees sting Tuchel's Blues?

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