Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
Notts County vs Leicester - Saturday 12:30
0.75pt Caleb Okoli to score anytime at 18/1 (BetVictor)
0.25pt Caleb Okoli to score from outside the box at 100/1 (bet365)
Norwich vs West Brom - Saturday 15:00
1pt Kenny Mclean 1+ assist in Norwich vs at 6/1 (General)
Sheff Utd vs Birmingham - Saturday 17:30
1.5pts Romelle Donovan to commit 2+ fouls at 9/4 (bet365)
0.5pts Romelle Donovan to commit 3+ fouls at 7/1 (bet365)
Notts County vs Leicester
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Be sure to check the team news before getting involved here, as Leicester’s Caleb Okoli has been linked with a move back to Serie A. If he starts against League One newcomers Notts County, though, there looks to be plenty of value in his attacking markets.
Okoli scored the winner last weekend in a typically drab Russell Martin-led game against League Two Northampton, where control was very much the name of the game. There were just 12 shots in total, with the Foxes winning 1-0 despite losing the expected-goals (xG) battle, while they dominated possession with a whopping 77%.
It was a set-piece that ultimately settled the contest, and Leicester should continue to rack up corners and free-kicks given their territorial and ball domination. That brings Okoli into play. He had three of Leicester’s eight attempts last weekend.
He was certainly not afraid to get forward and pull the trigger against Northampton, while the prospect of another opponent sitting deep could give him similar opportunities.
The 18/1 about OKOLI SCORING ANYTIME looks worth a poke given his set-piece threat, while the whopping 100/1 for him TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX is a particularly interesting big price to cheer on.
He had two efforts from range last weekend, hitting the target with one, and there is every chance Notts County adopt a similar approach and allow Leicester to dominate possession.
Norwich vs West Brom
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Norwich and West Brom got their seasons off to flying starts with big-margin wins over lower-league opposition, although the Canaries arguably had the tougher assignment against MK Dons, who were fifth favourites for the League One title. West Brom, meanwhile, put Rotherham away comfortably, with the Millers priced as 10th favourites for League Two relegation.
KENNY MCLEAN was excellent for Norwich in that victory and is the player who interests me from a betting perspective, with the 6/1 about him registering 1+ ASSIST looking too big. The Scotsman created five chances against a good MK Dons side and also grabbed an assist.
That performance was no flash in the pan, either, as McLean finished last season as Norwich’s leading assistor with four. He also created more chances than any of his teammates (53), creating nearly double the next best, while the 10 big chances he created was also a team-leading figure.
He also led the club for expected assists (xA) and expected assists per 90. Those numbers underline just how important he is to the Canaries’ creative output.
Yet despite that, there are an awful lot of his own teammates priced shorter than him in the anytime assist market. That feels wrong, and providing he keeps his place from last weekend, we have to be onboard again.
Sheffield United vs Birmingham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Sheffield United were very good in dismantling Mansfield last weekend, winning with ease while creating a hatful of chances, and that should give them plenty of confidence heading into a much tougher test against Birmingham.
The player I want to focus on is Brentford loanee ROMELLE DONOVAN, who hopefully gets the nod here after coming on for the injured Tahith Chong in the Carabao Cup and playing over an hour - Chong is touch and go to be fit for this one.
The notable thing from that appearance was the number of fouls Donovan committed, with three in total.
That is perhaps unsurprising for a 19-year-old who is still a little raw, with his professional minutes incredibly limited since turning pro, but he does appear to have a tendency to commit fouls when given the opportunity. He made six in 219 minutes for Birmingham in 2023/24, four in 244 minutes at Burton in 2024/25 and nine in just 287 minutes for Brentford last season.
That works out at 2.23 fouls per 90 across his short professional career, while his record when starting is particularly interesting. He has committed three fouls in his last three starts across 25/26 and last week's Carabao game, two in his only start in 2024/25 and three across his two starts in 2023/24.
So, we'll back him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at a huge 9/4 here, with this bet landing in five of his six competitive starts, which makes the price particularly appealing given the limited sample.
The icing on the cake could be his opposite number, who I hope is Alex Cochrane. He was substituted at half-time last weekend, presumably with his workload being managed following a serious injury in January, but he was fouled three times during those 45 minutes.
We'll also take him TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS too at 7/1. Hopefully he gets the start on Saturday.
Odds correct at 15:25 BST (13/08/26)
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