Football betting tips: Wednesday
League One
0.5pt Xavier Simons to be carded in Bolton vs Reading (20:00) at 5/1 (bet365)
Champions League
1.5pts Fred to be carded in Fenerbache vs Benfica (20:00) at 23/10 (William Hill)
1.5pts Sofyan Amrabat to be carded in Fenerbache vs Benfica (20:00) at 5/2 (William Hill)
Bolton vs Reading
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt'
XAVIER SIMONS’ price of 5/1 TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals.
Bolton’s central midfielder has racked up 8Y and 1R cards across his career and that average of 0.23 cards per 90 automatically makes him value on Wednesday.
His record in League One is even more promising. Across 29 appearances in the third tier, Simons has picked up six cards, that is a cards per 90 average of 0.31 which translates to a price of 9/4. Coincidentally, this is the price some bookies have him to be booked against Reading.
Odds correct at 1550 BST (18/08/25)
Fenerbache vs Benfica
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
When the words 'Fenerbahce' and 'Europe' are put in the same sentence, the word that links the two is usually 'cards'.
The Turkish giants, led by the chief houser himself Jose Mourinho, collected a huge 3.63 cards per 90 in Europe last season, while drawing a further 2.52. So, yeah, cards tend to flow.
And that should again be the case here with a fantastic referee appointment and hugely high stakes, with Champions League football only 180 minutes away for one of these sides.
The man in the middle is Daniel Siebert, and last season he flashed 4.85 cards per game, while his sole outing this term saw him brandish nine yellows and a red in a Europa League qualifier. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar tally here.
The card total is set at around 6.5 so we'll head to the player card market, where we'll split stakes on two former Manchester United midfielders - FRED and SOFYAN AMRABAT TO BE CARDED.
Both players are fairly short in the market at 23/10 and 5/2 respectively, but are as short as 5/4 and 6/5 in places.
The pair are serial offenders. Both were carded 13 times last season across Super Lig and Europa League matches, with Amrabat averaging 0.43 cards per 90 and Fred 0.33.
Those averages make both prices value as they are, but when we factor in their opponents, the case becomes even more compelling.
New Benfica midfielders Richard Rios and Enzo Barrenechea, who is on loan from Aston Villa, are foul magnets.
Rios was fouled five times over two legs in Benfica's tie with Nice in the last qualifying round, was felled an incredible seven times in the Portuguese Super Cup against Sporting Lisbon and drew four fouls in Benfica's first league game of the season at Estrela.
Before moving to Portugal he drew 2.79 fouls per 90 at Palmeiras, so looks an ideal opponent for card happy pair Fred and Amrabat.
As does Barrenechea, who's drawn 2.06 fouls per 90 this season and averaged 1.84 in La Liga last season.
The Benfica midfielders are priced at 13/8 and 7/4 to be carded, though I wouldn't be surprised to see all four find their way into the referee's book. It's 50/ for the quartet which could be worth some shrapnel.
Odds correct at 2120 BST (19/08/25)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
