- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +25.8pts in profit for the 2023-24 season
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Cameron Archer 1+ offsides at 23/20 (William Hill)
1pt Ollie Watkins 1+ assists at 10/3 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
Should Aston Villa follow the formbook and beat Sheffield United on Friday evening, they will top the Premier League table at Christmas if Arsenal and Liverpool play out a draw the following night.
And if you had a couple of quid on that eventuality at the start of the season, it's safe to say that will be all your Christmas shopping paid for and more.
To reach such heady heights, they must negotiate the challenge of a Blades side who will be looking to clamber off the foot of the table with a point or better at Villa Park.
But to do that, Chris Wilder's visitors will have to break an imperious 15-game home league winning streak that has claimed last season's top two Manchester City and Arsenal as its most recent victims.
What are the best bets?
I'd be amazed if Villa have been a shorter price since the Premier League began than the 1/6 they are generally to win this. Such odds, of course, pretty much accurately reflect the respective positions and form guides of the two teams.
Hunting for value around a Villa victory is therefore tough - and the fact that eight of their 15 straight wins have been to nil while seven have not hardly helps. They've shut out Manchester City and Arsenal, yet conceded to Luton.
The Blades' woeful goal record - just 12 in 17 games and only four in eight away from home - pushes us towards 'win to nil' but at even money at best, the risk surely outweighs the reward.
Instead I'm turning to Villa's main man but perhaps not in the way you'd expect because OLLIE WATKINS is prohibitively short at odds-on to score anytime yet a tasty 10/3 with Coral and Ladbrokes to register 1+ ASSISTS.
The England striker has six assists to his name in 17 games this season and is contributing 1.5 key passes (passes leading to a chance) per game.
He should be a marked man but that could give him the chance to help others find the net and with Villa averaging more than three goals per game at home this season, Watkins will have plenty of opportunities to add to that assists tally.
I also cannot resist a play based on Villa's crazily high line - they have caught opponents offside a whopping 82 times this season. That's almost five times per game and 26 more than the next highest tally, Tottenham with 56.
It's therefore a surprise to see ex-Villa striker CAMERON ARCHER, the Blades' most regular flag-drawer, at odds-against to be caught out by the hosts' offside trap considering his speed on the counter will be one of the visitors' biggest weapons.
It's even money for 4+ Blades offsides yet you can get 23/20 with William Hill on Archer 1+ OFFSIDES - he's averaging 0.5 per game so it's a good price even before factoring in the opponent who he'll also be eager, hopefully too keen, to impress against.
BuildABet @22/1
- Ollie Watkins 1+ assists
- Cameron Archer 1+ offsides
- Douglas Luiz 1+ shots on target
- Aston Villa to win to nil
We've discussed the likelihood of three of these selections already and we can add a Douglas Luiz shot on target to boost the BuildABet price to 22/1.
The Brazilian has had seven efforts on target in eight home games this season and will be raring to go after missing Villa's last match through suspension.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Team news
Villa will be without midfielder Boubacar Kamara, who is serving the first match of a three-game ban for his straight red card in the ill-tempered 2-1 win at Brentford.
He will likely be replaced by Douglas Luiz, who missed that victory due to a one-match suspension for accumulating five bookings, while Youri Tielemans could also return after a knock kept him out of the trip to the Bees.
Centre-back Pau Torres is touch and go after being withdrawn at Brentford with a knock, while Tyrone Mings, Emi Buendia and Bertrand Traore all remain out long-term.
Sheffield United will have defender Jack Robinson back available after he missed the defeat at Chelsea because of a one-game ban for yellow card accumulation. Chris Basham, Tom Davies and John Egan are all long-term injury absentees.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Martinez, Digne, Carlos, Konsa, Cash, Moreno, McGinn, Luiz, Ramsey, Diaby, Watkins.
Sheffield United: Foderingham, Robinson, Trusty, Ahmedhodzic, Bogle, Hamer, Norwood, Souza, McAtee, Archer, McBurnie.
Match facts
- A win against bottom side Sheffield United on Friday night would see Aston Villa finish a day top of the Premier League table at least 18 games into a season for the first time since 8th January 1999.
- The Villans would join Arsenal, Brighton, Manchester City, Liverpool, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham to have finished a day top so far this season. It would be the sixth time as many as eight teams have finished a day top in a single Premier League campaign, with only 2020-21 having more (9).
- Villa are unbeaten in their last 14 home league games against Sheffield United (W8 D6) since losing 2-0 in January 1966.
- Sheffield United have kept three clean sheets in their last four Premier League games against Aston Villa (W2 D1 L1), losing the other game 1-0 in September 2020.
- Aston Villa have won their last five Premier League games against promoted sides, since a 3-0 loss at Fulham last season in what proved to be Steven Gerrard’s final game in charge. They last had a longer winning run vs promoted sides in the 1980-81 season, winning all six such matches in what was their last title-winning campaign.
- Villa have won each of their last 15 Premier League home games; it’s their longest such run in their league history, while only three sides have won more consecutively at home in the Premier League – Liverpool (24 between 2019 and 2020), Manchester City (20 between 2011 and 2012) and Manchester United (19 between 2010 and 2011).
- Sheffield United have won just two of their last 33 Premier League away games (D4 L27), 2-1 at Man Utd in January 2021 and 1-0 at Everton in May 2021. They’re the only Premier League side without an away win so far this season (D1 L7).
- Aston Villa have won 25 Premier League games in 2023, their most top-flight wins in a single calendar year in their history. Only Manchester City (87) have won more points in the Premier League in 2023 than Villa (81).
- Sheffield United have had the fewest shots (142) and the lowest xG (13) of any Premier League side so far this season. Their 8.4 shots-per-game is the lowest on record (since 1997-98) of any side in a single Premier League campaign.
- Ollie Watkins needs one goal to have scored 10+ goals in each of his first four Premier League seasons – the Aston Villa frontman could be the first Englishman to achieve that since Robbie Fowler between 1993- 94 and 1996-97.
Odds correct 1220 GMT (21/12/23)
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