Still in search of his first win as Watford boss, Roy Hodgson takes his Hornets side to Villa Park to take on Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa. Jake Pearson has the best bets and preview.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa -2 on the corner handicap at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Steven Gerrard’s short tenure at Aston Villa has been a somewhat topsy-turvy one, after beginning it with three wins from his opening five fixtures, Villa have now tasted victory just once in their last seven matches in all competitions.
A 1-0 defeat to Newcastle last time out was a particularly disappointing result, with chance creation a major issue at Villa Park this season.
In fact, only Norwich boast a worse attacking process as per expected goals (xG), with Gerrard’s men generating an average of just 1.09 xGF per match this season.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Aston Villa 4/7 | Draw 29/10 | Watford 5/1
If Villa think they’re in a bad run of form though, perhaps they should speak to some of the Watford players, who have picked up just two points across their last ten Premier League matches.
For all the good sentiment and general back patting surrounding Roy Hodgson’s appointment, the former England boss is still in search of his first win, and with Newcastle putting together three successive victories, his Hornets team remain six points adrift of safety.
Signs of improvement were apparent in Hodgson’s first two matches, limiting Burnley to less than 1.0 xG in a 0-0 draw at Turf Moor, as well as succumbing to only a deflected Jarrod Bowen goal at West Ham, but a 2-0 defeat to Brighton last time out demonstrated just how much work the new manager has to do, the Hornets conceding chances equating to 2.12 xGF, while failing to create more than 1.0 xGF for the third successive match under Hodgson.
It is clear that Hodgson has been tasked with shoring up the Watford defence, but the Hornets have been dropping very deep of late, surrendering possession willingly, and up against some of the creative talent at Aston Villa’s disposal – namely Phillipe Coutinho – it would be a surprise were the Villians not to rack up a fair few opportunities.
The Coutinho factor is a particularly intriguing one here, with the Brazilian looking in fine form since his return to the Premier League.
He has netted twice from an xG of 0.99, whilst also taking eight shots – four on target – in the 293 minutes he has played.
For context, that is an effort every 36 minutes, while Villa’s second most prolific shot taker, Ollie Watkins, averages an attempt every 44 minutes.
Not only has Coutinho brought a much-needed creative spark to Villa Park, he is also direct, unleashing shot after shot at every opportunity. This indirectly leads to the best bet in this fixture.
With Coutinho’s constant desire to let fly, expect Villa’s attempts to increase as the Brazilian gets more minutes under his belt, and with shots leading to blocks, which in turn lead to corners, backing ASTON VILLA -2 CORNERS looks an interesting bet at an odds-against price.
The statistics hardly back up this theory, with Villa’s corner average far from impressive, but game state is arguably a more important factor with this sort of wager, and with Watford likely to sit deep and invite pressure, but more importantly, longer-distance efforts, expect Villa to cover the handicap.
Aston Villa v Watford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Aston Villa -2 on the corner handicap at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1115 GMT (17/02/21)
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