Jake Pearson previews the Premier League clash between Arsenal and Manchester United, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Arsenal to have 6+ Shots on Target at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Martin Odegaard to have 1+ Shots on Target at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
A crucial week in the race for the top four has begun in contrasting fashion for these two sides, Manchester United receiving a hammering away to long-time adversaries Liverpool on Tuesday, before Arsenal got the better of London rivals Chelsea in a six-goal thriller on Wednesday.
The results mean the Gunners are now three points ahead of Ralf Rangnick’s team having played a game fewer, and a defeat for United at the Emirates would surely all but end their hopes of a place in next season’s Champions League.
Arsenal cannot afford to let up the pace however, now level on points with Tottenham but with a worse goal difference and a North London derby at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to contend with next month.
United’s only win in their last five matches in all competitions was a 3-2 victory over Norwich last weekend, and even then they needed a Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick to secure all three points – and were fortunate to do that based on expected goals (xG: MNU 1.56 - 1.52 NOR).
The Gunners have maintained a solid output however, winning the ‘xG battle’ in four of their last five matches, and should be the team in the ascendancy in North London on Saturday afternoon.
Arsenal are one of league’s more ‘shot-happy’ teams, with only Liverpool and Manchester City averaging more efforts per game than the Gunners.
Mikel Arteta’s men average 15.5 shots per game, 18 when playing at the Emirates, while Manchester United actually sit in the top eight in the league for most shots conceded per match, allowing 13.4 on average.
It is shots on target that is worth focusing on here though, and particularly the 11/8 price about ARSENAL TO HAVE 6+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
It is a tally the Gunners have reached in nine of their 16 home matches this term, while United have allowed six or more shots on goal in an astonishing nine of their 16 away fixtures.
Away to teams in the top half of the league this term the Red Devils have averaged six shots on target against, making the odds-against price for Arsenal to hit that threshold very appealing.
Also of interest is the 11/8 about MARTIN ODEGAARD TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
The Norwegian midfielder has been one of the Gunners’ standout players this term, with only Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith-Rowe contributing more goals than the former Real Madrid player.
Odegaard is averaging 0.55 shots on target per 95 minutes and has registered at least one effort on goal in two of his last three appearances at the Emirates.
Given the fragility of Manchester United’s defence, Odegaard should have little trouble breaking from his advanced midfield position and testing David De Gea at least once in this match.
Arsenal v Man United best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Arsenal to have 6+ Shots on Target at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Martin Odegaard to have 1+ Shots on Target at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 0915 BST (21/04/22)
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