Aston Villa fans can empathise with the plight of Newcastle United supporters more than most.
They endured two years of Steve Bruce at Villa Park, and while history remembers it as relatively uneventful the supporters wince at the memory of gradual decay; of a dense sludge, the congealing of a football club into something unwatchable and increasingly untenable.
It is not Bruce’s fault that Villa almost fell into administration while he was at the helm. That was down to mismanagement of which his appointment was only one minor symptom. But nevertheless he was a fitting figure on the touchline as the stagnation became toxic; his careless belittling of the club’s ambitions in interviews and his wearying satisfaction with Villa likely being ‘there or thereabouts’ by the end of the season (a catchphrase Villa fans pounced on) betraying a lack of ambition.
Newcastle v Aston Villa
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Will Newcastle get relegated?
That will all sound very familiar to Newcastle fans growing increasingly irate at their manager’s relentless pragmatism and the quiet hollowing out of the club’s aspirations, issues that reached new levels last weekend.
“It was important that we didn’t lose the game,” Bruce said of his side’s 0-0 draw with West Brom last Sunday. “We’ll take a point, and move on to next week.”
Premier League Relegation 20/21 (latest Sky Bet odds)
- Sheffield Utd, West Brom - 1/100
- Newcastle - 6/5
- Fulham - 15/8
- Brighton - 4/1
- Burnley - 11/2
- Crystal Palace - 25/1
Football is pointless without hope, without forward momentum or at least the collective pining towards something better, and given that Newcastle have done little but tread water under Mike Ashley’s ownership the last thing the fans need is a manager like Bruce arguing that a point at relegation-threatened West Brom is good enough.
Especially when it might not be. Bruce’s comments were immediately undermined, after all, by Fulham’s victory at Anfield hours later.
There is every chance Newcastle will end the campaign ruing missed opportunities like that one, and as they sit just one point above the relegation zone in the Premier League table there is a growing realisation – at least outside the boardroom – that Newcastle are sleepwalking towards disaster.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
This is not the time for a manager with a history, especially at Villa, of sleepwalking when it matters; of accepting standards that fall a long way short of expectations or resources. Bruce may have had to deal with a number of injuries this season but so too have their relegation-threatened rivals, most of whom do not boast the sort of talent in the Newcastle team. A squad with Callum Wilson, Ryan Fraser, Allan Saint-Maximin, Jamal Lewis, and Jamaal Lascelles really should not be in this position.
Bruce’s team will indeed be “there or thereabouts” this May, if indeed – as Bruce has so often said this year – their only ambition is to avoid the drop, but that dangling “thereabouts” is an invitation to flirt with catastrophe and it screams of sleepwalking into trouble.
Reports this week indicate there are no plans to remove Bruce from his position, but defeat to Aston Villa on Friday will most definitely crank up the pressure. Newcastle have won just two of their last 18 games in all competitions, and have scored one goal or fewer in 15 of their last 17. This cannot be allowed to go on.
Perhaps Friday’s game is a chance to get back on track. Villa are similarly goal shy at the moment and as we move towards the business end of the season there is a sense that Dean Smith’s side are regressing to the mean. They have collected 15 points from their 13 league games since Boxing Day, which is more in keeping with our pre-season expectations than the incredible run they put together in the first third of the season.
Why have Aston Villa tailed off?
Arguably the main reason for their decline has been exhaustion, with Smith regularly picking the same 11 and encouraging his players to play an expansive possession game despite the congested schedule. It is telling that Villa are the only Premier League team whose pressing intensity, statistically speaking, is at a higher level than in 2019/20.
Thankfully Smith has begun to recognise this problem and is rotating in midfield more, although so far this has only proved to highlight the thinness in the squad. Beyond the first 11 there isn’t quite enough quality for Villa to maintain their European challenge. In fact, to be blunt, beyond Jack Grealish there isn’t enough quality.
Villa look bereft of ideas without their captain the side, and while Smith has indicated Grealish could be back in the starting line-up on Friday, we must take that with a pinch of salt. He regularly asserts players are in line to return before they actually do, and was equally optimistic about Grealish before the Sheffield United and Wolverhampton Wanderers games.
If Grealish plays, he will probably make the difference, given that there appears little chance Newcastle will get on the score sheet. Only Manchester City have kept more clean sheets this season than Villa’s 14, a testament to the brilliant work of Tyrone Mings, Ezra Konsa, and Emi Martinez, and so with Newcastle creatively blocked the visitors can anticipate a comfortable night.
A goalless draw would certainly fit the form guide. Villa have scored a meagre three goals in their last six Premier League matches, a record that stretches back to when Grealish was still fit; the Villa number ten has slowed down a lot since his rampant form towards the end of 2020. Back UNDER 1.5 GOALS at 23/10.
And yet, whether or not Grealish plays, there is a feeling Aston Villa will snatch the points for one important psychological reason. Under Smith they never go for the draw, the manager’s vaulting ambition being the driving force behind their remarkable rise under his leadership. The contrast to former Villa boss Bruce is stark, and bruising. He would take a point, as he always does.
It is the hesitant, safety-first, conservative approach of a manager and a club that’s happy to tread water. Newcastle fans have been in this situation before. They know as well as anyone: choose to tread water in the Premier League, and you end up drowning.
Back ASTON VILLA TO WIN at evens.
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