Saturday brings a big Madrid derby for more than one reason. Not only are these two huge rivals, they are also the current top two in the La Liga table with just a point separating the pair in the title race.

There really isn't much between the pair, other than the star-studded nature of Los Blancos, with Atletico continuing to punch above their weight with a group of players you've probably never heard of.

I don't think that matters at all, as the league table suggests, and am more than happy to back ATLETICO MADRID OR DRAW in the double chance market.

CLICK HERE to back Atletico Madrid or Draw with Sky Bet

Diego Simeone's side have been incredibly difficult to beat of late, losing just one of their last 21 matches in all competitions, while away from home they have won 10 of their last 11, including beating Barcelona in Catalonia and PSG in Paris.

Add in the fact that, data-wise, there isn't too much between the two Madrid giants, with Real averaging +1.12 xGD and Atletico at +0.88 xGD per game, and an away result starts to make real appeal.

Then we dive into recent head-to-heads, where Simeone has had Carlo Ancelotti's number, so much so that Atletico haven't been beaten in the last seven meetings with Madrid in 90 minutes. That includes the last three trips to the Bernabeu.

The icing on the cake is the scheduling. Not only did Atletico play in the Copa del Rey on Tuesday as opposed to Real's Wednesday clash, this game comes just days before a big Champions League contest for Los Blancos, who head to Manchester City on Tuesday in the play-off round, while Simeone's men have a free midweek after this.

Card-wise, VINICIUS JR's price TO BE CARDED looks value at 9/4.

CLICK HERE to back Vinicius Jr to be carded with Sky Bet

The Brazilian, usually known for getting opponents booked, has been a card magnet this term, picking up 10 yellows and a red across all competitions this season, averaging 0.45 cards per 90.

He was booked in midweek during a 45 minute cameo against Leganes in the Copa, and has been carded in five of his last 10 outings since returning from injury.

Atletico will be targeting Vini with their dark arts, knowing he has a very short fuse, and they have the players to frustrate him and draw him into intense battles.

1pt James McAtee to score anytime in Leyton Orient vs Man City (12:15) at 12/5 (Unibet)

1pt Tom James to be carded in Leyton Orient vs Man City at 11/2 (Sky Bet)

2pts Mainz to beat Augsburg (14:30) at 4/5 (Betfred, Coral, Ladbrokes)

1.5pts Everton to beat Bournemouth (15:00) at 2/1 (bet365)

2pts Preston to beat Wycombe (15:00) at 5/4 (General)

1.5pts Notts County win to nil vs Morecambe (15:00) at 7/5 (BetVictor)

1pt Josh Sargent to score anytime in Norwich vs Derby (15:00) at 49/20 (Unibet)

Leyton Orient vs Manchester City

Kick-off: 12:15 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: BBC One
Home 20/1 | Draw 17/2 | Away 1/12

Jake Osgathorpe

Usually, this is a game that Manchester City cruise through under Pep Guardiola. I suspect they will again given their squad depth, with heavy rotation likely given ahead of their Champions League play-off against Real Madrid on Tuesday.

That should mean Jack Grealish plays, giving the Leyton Orient right-back a tough afternoon. In recent games that has been Ethan Galbraith, but we could see TOM JAMES there instead with Galbraith moving into midfield, meaning his 11/2 price TO BE CARDED is worth a small bet.

CLICK HERE to back Tom James to be carded with Sky Bet

He's as short as 21/10 in places, and has been carded seven times in all competitions this season, averaging 0.31 cards per 90. Should he start, he'll be under immense pressure from one of the best foul and card-drawing wingers in the country.

I'll also take JAMES MCATEE, City's hat-trick hero in the last round, TO SCORE ANYTIME at a juicy 12/5. He's odds-on in places.

CLICK HERE to back James McAtee to score anytime with Sky Bet

With such a big game coming up for City, expect McAtee to start and his goalscoring instincts could get him on the end of a couple of good chances.

He's played just 84 minutes in the Premier League but had four shots, racking up 0.79 xG and scoring once. In 92 minutes of Champions League action he's taken five shots and scored once from 0.32 xG, and against Salford in the last round he was on the end of 1.18 xG, scoring from three of his four shots.

Whenever he gets a run-out, he's an attacking threat.

Mainz vs Augsburg

Kick-off: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
Home 3/4 | Draw 5/2 | Away 18/5

Jake Osgathorpe

MAINZ look a big price TO WIN on Saturday against Augsburg.

CLICK HERE to back Mazin to win with Sky Bet

They have been red-hot at home of late, winning five straight, beating Dortmund, Stuttgart and Bayern Munich in that time.

The O-Fives rank as the seventh best home team in the league on underlying data (1.44 xGF, 1.08 xGA per game), and are taking on a poor travelling team.

Augsburg's form looks good on paper (W3 D1) but they have had a kind schedule, playing three of the bottom six and none of the top six - where Mainz reside.

On the road they've lost five of 10, but their underlying data is shocking. They rank as the second worst travellers according to xG this season, averaging 0.79 xGF and 1.82 xGA per away game, losing the xG battle in nine of those 10.

I expected to see a price of around 6/10 here, so 4/5 is value.

Everton vs Bournemouth

Kick-off: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Home 9/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/10

Joe Townsend

Even when EVERTON were on their knees in their final game under Sean Dyche, a match they failed to have a shot on target in, Bournemouth found them tough to break down, needing a brilliant late volley from substitute David Brooks to sneak a 1-0 home win.

A lot has changed since then.

A few days later, under caretaker duo Leighton Baines and Seamus Coleman, Peterborough were beaten 2-0 to get Everton to this stage of the FA Cup.

CLICK HERE to back Everton in 90 minutes with Sky Bet

David Moyes then began his second stint as manager with a narrow home defeat by Aston Villa, but has responded with three straight victories over Tottenham (3-2) at Brighton (1-0) and against Leicester (4-0) to pull the Toffees well clear of relegation trouble.

It means Everton can approach this fourth-round tie, backed by a raucous Goodison Park perhaps for the final time in FA Cup history, with full gusto.

Bournemouth may well be in superb form, with last weekend's home defeat by Liverpool a first in 13, but they have aspirations of a European finish in the Premier League, and an injury-hit squad to manage.

This match simply cannot mean to them what it will to EVERTON, who arrive in as positive a moment as they have been for years, and more importantly available at 2/1 to seize the moment and WIN IN 90 MINUTES.

Preston vs Wycombe

Kick-off: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Home 23/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/5

Sheffield United boss Paul Heckingbottom

Paul Heckingbottom has made Preston a force at home

Joe Townsend

Sky Bet Championship club PRESTON haven’t lost at home since early November, only losing three of 19 games at Deepdale in all competitions this season.

Two of those defeats warrant huge asterisks too - losing to promotion-chasing Sheffield United on opening weekend with manager Ryan Lowe leaving the club immediately afterwards, and to Arsenal in the Carabao Cup.

CLICK HERE to back Preston in 90 minutes with Sky Bet

As exceptional a season as Wycombe are having as they push for promotion from League One, it makes little sense for North End, a division and 11 places higher than on the EFL ladder, to be 5/4 TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES.

The Chairboys' away form has stumbled lately too, drawing at 17th-placed Exeter and bottom club Cambridge, and losing at play-off chasers Charlton across their last six road trips.

This is also their first game under new boss Mike Dodds, whose only previous managerial experience has come in various caretaker spells at Sunderland.

Norwich vs Derby

Kick-off: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Home 4/6 | Draw 13/5 | Away 4/1

Jake Osgathorpe

Derby are an appalling travelling team, and head to Carrow Road having won just one and lost 10 of their 15 away games.

Norwich have started to hit form again, winning five of their last seven, with two defeats in that time coming against title-chasing Sheffield United and Leeds.

JOSH SARGENT's return from injury could be a real catalyst for a play-off charge, and his 49/20 price TO SCORE ANYTIME looks massive against a struggling team.

CLICK HERE to back Josh Sargent to score anytime with Sky Bet

The American has been eased back into things by the Canaries having been out since late October, making sub appearances in three straight games before starting the last two and netting in both of them, including the winner against Watford in a 1-0 success.

Averaging 0.54 xG per 90, and with Norwich averaging 2.57 goals per home game, he looks overpriced to get on the scoresheet here.

Notts County vs Morecambe

Kick-off: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Home 4/11 | Draw 7/2 | Away 11/2

Jake Osgathorpe

Notts County are flying at the moment, and Morecambe most certainly aren't.

The Magpies have won seven oft heir last nine losing only once, to table-toppers Walsall, and boast the sixth best home record in League Two on a points-per-game basis (W7 D3 L3).

Visiting Morecambe have struggled away from home, especially against the best sides, losing all seven games away against top half opponents, all to nil.

NOTTS COUNTY are strongly fancied to win here, but we can boost the 2/5 win price to 7/5 by taking them to WIN TO NIL and make it eight out of eight for Morecambe versus the top sides.

CLICK HERE to back Notts County to win to nil with Sky Bet

Six of County's seven home wins have come with an accompanying shutout, no surprise given they have allowed just 0.83 xGA per game at Meadow Lane. Morecambe meanwhile rank as the second worst attacking team when travelling, according to xGF (0.71 per game), which suggests they will find it tough to breakdown their hosts here.

Odds correct at 1200 GMT (7/2/25)

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