- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game
Darwin can expose Spurs cracks
- Tottenham v Liverpool
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30
- Home 2/1 | Draw 3/1 | Away 11/10
An even better match is taking place later that day in Tottenham, but unlike Emery and De Zerbi the two managers are happy to embrace a more chaotic approach, stretching the game with rapid transitions and – for the time being at least – hoping simply to outscore their opponent.
The key battles in this game are easier to pick out. Despite the improvements made to Liverpool’s central midfield, where Dominic Szoboszlai and an improving Curtis Jones have given greater control of possession, the use of Alexis Mac Allister as the defensive anchor means Liverpool can be got at.
Consequently, they have been at their best this season when able to play longer passes into the channels, rather than rely on the 2019/20 method of possession domination.
Against West Ham, Newcastle, and Wolves Jurgen Klopp found a way through by throwing the kitchen sink at it, pinning teams back through the blunt force of Darwin Nunez and some longer passes over the top.
That is an obvious threat to the Tottenham defence, which has conceded five goals in the last three matches and is particularly vulnerable in the wide areas because of Ange Postecoglou’s commitment to two inverted full-backs.
Bukayo Saka found joy last weekend – as have others before him. Mohamed Salah up against Destiny Udogie (or the spaces Udogie leaves as he moves into midfield) is a problem, especially with Liverpool happy to go long, and especially if Trent Alexander-Arnold is back.
Liverpool’s main danger is the brilliance of Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr, both of whom have excelled as wriggling, press-evading midfielders in Postecoglou’s ambitious setup.
Buoyed by the support of those inverted full-backs, and filled with confidence by the forward-thinking coaching, they are running the show at the moment.
Mac Allister has looked hesitant in possession in recent games, while Liverpool’s pressing is still a little disordered, particularly in the first halves of matches. That should give Bissouma and Sarr the opportunity to dribble through the lines and set the Spurs forwards away.
If they can do that, Liverpool are in danger: we all know how wobbly their defence looks when backpedalling.
So, both attacks are likely to excel here. Spurs and Liverpool only seem to take part in chaotic, basketball-style ‘Big Six’ matches these days. Neither has the defensive qualities to shut a game down – and neither manager has the inclination to do so.
It should complete a very high-scoring double bill on Saturday.
A pressing battle
- Aston Villa vs Brighton
- TNT Sports 1: Saturday, 12:30
- Home 29/20 | Draw 14/5 | Away 8/5
There are just too many moving parts – too many variables and counter-variables, too many potential tactical tweaks and counter-tweaks to be planned by the two clubs’ obsessive managers – to predict the most important in-game match-ups at Villa Park on Saturday.
Suffice to say it will be a very entertaining game of football as Roberto de Zerbi tests Unai Emery’s high defensive line and as Aston Villa target an expansive Brighton defence that ranks seventh in the Premier League for expected goals against (9.9).
But what we can anticipate with confidence is the ultimate showdown between two of the Premier League’s two most similar managers, both of whom have gone all-in on a new tactical trend that has become the most significant of the 2020s.
De Zerbi and Emery don’t get compared very often. The Brighton manager is more aggressively attack-minded and his formation is more fluid, while he also presses higher and harder than Emery, who will fall back on reactive instincts at times from within his 4-4-2. Nevertheless, they have a lot in common.
They are the two most prominent exponents of what’s often referred to as press-baiting: defenders standing completely still, foot on top of the ball, and waiting for the press.
The idea is to enact pre-prepared passing moves that weave around the press to create ‘artificial transitions’ (fast and vertical moves that have the appearance of counter-attacks despite being built from a phase of possession), and both Emery and De Zerbi do so via the yo-yo effect of intricate progressive passes mixed with instant passes back the same way.
On Saturday, look out for the very particular way both teams will do this: pass into midfield, instantly get it back, and then hit an ambitious vertical pass through the lines.
It is the basis of a lot of their press-baiting, it is oddly similar to five-a-side, and it is the most important tactical nuance of a decade defined by hard pressing from all quarters and increasingly organised low defensive blocks.
The big question on Saturday is whether either will fall into the other’s trap.
Emery, the more conservative of the two, may choose to sit his defence a little deeper and refuse to be baited, much in the way West Ham United did in their 3-1 victory. Emery famously scrutinises opposition matches to find weaknesses and that, clearly, is one.
But whatever the outcome and whatever the tactical patterns built, this promises to show off the very best of elite modern football – and the growing tendency to treat every goal kick (and most open-play moments) like American Football set-pieces.
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