1pt Hakim Ziyech (Morocco) to assist vs South Africa at 10/3 (bet365)
1pt Mali win to nil in 90 minutes vs Burkina Faso at 9/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
The last of the round of 16 games sees Morocco and South Africa, with this match-up also being the most one-sided according to the match odds.
While I agree the pre-tournament favourites and 2022 World Cup semi-finalists Morocco are the most likely winners, I think more value can be found in the player lines, and I'm looking at HAKIM ZIYECH 1+ ASSIST at 10/3.
The on-loan Chelsea winger remains his nation's creative spark, the man who takes all set-pieces and provides the final third quality.
So far at this tournament, Morocco's captain has one goal and one assist in two and a half games, creating six chances in that time.
Importantly, he has accumulated 0.76 xA at AFCON thus far, equating to 0.30 per 90, showing that the chances he is creating for his teammates generally have a good chance of being scored.
Against a South Africa team who shipped 2.10 xGA against the only decent team they've faced at the tournament so far (Mali), Ziyech and Morocco should have no problems generating opportunities.
Odds correct at 1530 (29/01/24)
Mali have been one of the more impressive defensive sides at this years' AFCON, which should bode well heading into the knockout rounds of the tournament.
Les Aigles have allowed a non-penalty xGA per game average of just 0.56, and while Burkina Faso could be considered a step up, they haven't looked as formidable as previous tournaments.
Burkinabè needed a 96th minute penalty to squeeze past rank outsiders Mauritania in their opener, mustering just 0.33 non-penalty xGF, before drawing 2-2 with a poor Algeria team, again scoring a penalty, that time racking up 0.56 non-penalty xGF.
With the top spot in the group up for grabs in their final game against Angola, they lost 2-0, again struggling to carve out opportunities (0.79 non-pen xGF).
MALI, while not being overly explosive in attack, have looked more capable and fluid than their upcoming opponents, and I do fancy them to win this one, but given Burkina Faso's attacking struggles and Mali's solid defence, taking WIN TO NIL at 9/4 appeals.
This could be a nail biter, with one goal likely enough to decide the game, but it seems more likely given what we have seen from the pair that it's Mali who nick it and advance.
Odds correct at 1000 (29/01/24)
Saturday, January 27
Sunday, January 28
Monday, January 29
Tuesday, January 30
1pt Nurio Fortuna (Angola) to be carded vs Namibia at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Nigeria to win in 90 mins vs Cameroon at 11/10 (General)
1pt Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa (Cameroon) to be carded vs Nigeria at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt Equatorial Guinea to win (draw no bet) vs Guinea at 7/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Either team to win on penalties in Egypt vs DR Congo at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Cape Verde to beat Mauritania in 90 minutes at evens (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Senegal to beat Ivory Coast in 90 minutes at 6/4 (Unibet, BetMGM)
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