Premier League Leeds travel to Accrington in the FA Cup fourth round, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, providing a best bet.
Accrington Stanley currently sit 20th in Sky Bet League One, but after an extra-time win over National League Boreham Wood, they host Premier League side Leeds in the fourth round of the FA Cup.
Stanley have been in steady form, but one thing stands out when playing as hosts this season - they lose to the best sides.
They have hosted five of the current top six in League One, and have lost four and drawn one, conceding 10 times.
Leeds will be the best team they have faced this season, and I fully expect Jesse Marsch to field a full-strength side as his team search for form and confidence.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV Channel: BBC One
That was the case in the 5-2 replay win against Cardiff in last round, and we should see the same again, which I think means the visitors win comfortably here.
There is little value in backing the Whites to win the game however, so I'm again dipping into the goalscorer market, and again going to give the nod to RODRIGO MORENO TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Spaniard has scored eight in his last 11, and notched in both matches against Cardiff in the FA Cup third round since the World Cup break, so remains Leeds' biggest attacking threat.
He has averaged 0.46 xG/95 in the Premier League this season, up hugely on last season's 0.20, meaning he is getting on the end of good chances on a regular basis.
That can be the case again here, and Rodrigo can help fire Leeds into the fifth round, with the price of 21/20 simply too big given the opposition he'll be facing.
The same bet is generally available at 4/6, so the odds against should be snapped up.
Accrington v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Rodrigo Moreno to score anytime at 21/20 (bet365)
Score prediction: Accrington 1-3 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (26/01/23)
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